Article

2008-03-25 Iraq

Violent clashes spreading as death toll hits 12

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Posted by anonymous5089 2008-03-25 14:56|| || Front Page|| [11130 views ] Top

#1 looks like US and Iraqi forces were steadily attriting Sadr with arrests of not-really-rogue militants, and Sadr was cooling to the govt, when Maliki (presumably in consultation with Petraeus (and Cheney?) decided on a preemptive strike on Basra, the city least under the iraqi govts control. With iraqi army forces commited in basra, Sadr is striking back in Baghdad, where US forces are coming into play.

points/questions

1. Looks like IA is taking the lead in Basra, a big technical test for the IA

2. If the IA keeps up the attack on Sadr in Basra, this is huge politically - showing Iraqi forces are fighting for the state against a shiite militia

3. Will this reconcile Maliki, now independent of Sadr, with SCII, and others who mistrusted Maliki

4. Will the friendly Sunni forces, so far working with the US but not with the Iraqi govt, gain new confidence that the Iraqi govt will also crack down on Shiites, and so be more supportive

5.what will the iranian response be?

6. What will the effect in the US be - pundits have mentioned many times that the improvements of the surge are dependent on Sadrs cooperation - if Sadr is defanged by force, this should sway a few of them towards the surge. OTOH the ordinary press and the public look more just to casualty counts and bleeding headlines, so it may look worse to them

7. If Sadr is true to form, he wont fight to the death. When its clear hes losing, he will try for another hudna. What might he offer that would make Maliki (if not Petraues) want to call off the dogs.

8. Are there enough troops - US plus reliable Iraqis - to take on Sadr while AQ is still alive in Mosul and Baquba

Posted by liberalhawk 2008-03-25 15:16|| 2008-03-25 15:16|| Front Page Top

#2 LH,

thought you would finish with,

"tune in again next week,
same bat-time,
same bat-channel"

Posted by mhw 2008-03-25 15:44|| 2008-03-25 15:44|| Front Page Top

#3 when Maliki (presumably in consultation with Petraeus (and Cheney?)

and over the objection of Fox Fallon overrulled by Gates and Bush?

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2008-03-25 15:58|| 2008-03-25 15:58|| Front Page Top

#4 Beeb says 3 IA brigades involved, total of 15,000 men with tanks and artillery, the city is sealed off. Operation "knights charge" or something (trans from the Arabic)

Posted by liberalhawk 2008-03-25 16:08|| 2008-03-25 16:08|| Front Page Top

#5 The British military said no British ground forces were involved in the operation..

who is shocked by this un-development?

Posted by RD">RD 2008-03-25 16:47|| 2008-03-25 16:47|| Front Page Top

#6 1. Yes.
2. Yes.
3. Yes.
4. Yes.
5. No.
6. Yes.
7. Yes.
8. Yes.

Posted by newc">newc 2008-03-25 17:14|| 2008-03-25 17:14|| Front Page Top

#7 I suspect this is the culmination of the surge and probably long ago anticipated by Petraeus. That is probably those that are "risk averse" in the Pentagon (and State and other places) are over in the corner, biting their lip.

Posted by tipover 2008-03-25 18:52|| 2008-03-25 18:52|| Front Page Top

#8 In a statement read out by a senior aide on Tuesday, Sadr called on Iraqis to stage sit-ins all over Iraq and said he would declare a "civil revolt" if attacks by US and Iraqi security forces continued.

I guess Sadr himself couldn't very well have read the statement from his hideout in Tehran.

Posted by Abu Uluque (aka Ebbang Uluque6305) 2008-03-25 19:12|| 2008-03-25 19:12|| Front Page Top

#9 Taking out Sadr and Madhi is the next step. Though I would have expected the US and Iraqi gov to wait until Mosul is finished. Sadr may have sped up things with the Green Zone rocket attacks.

Posted by ed 2008-03-25 19:26|| 2008-03-25 19:26|| Front Page Top

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