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2007-12-12 Home Front Economy

Morgan Stanley issues full US recession alert

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Posted by lotp 2007-12-12 00:00|| || Front Page|| [4 views ] Top

#1 There is a banking saying that 'Bad loans are made in good times.' The extended period of good economic times would eventually result in an accumulation of too many bad debts.

While the focus is on the USA, because of its greater transparency, I think the worst problems are elsewhere. China for example.

Posted by phil_b 2007-12-12 00:36|| 2007-12-12 00:36|| Front Page Top

#2 The comments are mostly those of the nattering nabobs of negativity however.

Recession.....

2. (Economics) A period during which economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product, declines for at least two quarters in a row in a specific country. If the decline is severe and long, such as greater than ten percent, it may be termed a depression.

Where is the recession? Not here, not yet.

If we go into a recession the first people we ought to hang are the international bankers who actually created these financial instruments and made loans that should have never been made. After that we need to look after the politicians that financed governments on what amounts to credit cards, next the speculators.

Long term investors and average joes are not to blame for this mess but I know who will suffer.

Posted by Sock Puppet of Doom 2007-12-12 01:09|| 2007-12-12 01:09|| Front Page Top

#3 Everybody panic now!

Posted by twobyfour 2007-12-12 01:19|| 2007-12-12 01:19|| Front Page Top

#4 The single most interesting thing about today's global economy is what has not occurred. In 1979, oil prices soared to slightly more than $100 a barrel in current dollars, and they are approaching that historic high again. Meanwhile, the subprime meltdown continues to play out. Many
financial institutions have been hurt, many individual lives have been shattered and many Wall Street operators once considered brilliant have been declared dunderheads. Despite all the predictions that the current situation is just the tip of the iceberg, however, the crisis is progressing in a fairly orderly fashion. Distinguish here between financial institutions, financial markets and the economy. People in the financial world tend to confuse the three. Some financial institutions are being hurt badly. Those experiencing the pain mistakenly think their suffering reflects the condition of the financial markets and economy. But the financial markets are managing, as is the economy.

--George Friedman

Posted by gromky 2007-12-12 02:06|| 2007-12-12 02:06|| Front Page Top

#5 Economies have recessions, so we could and most likelt see one eventually, but it's nothing that Morgan Stanley can foresee. They've proven themselve fairly inept at being right about even they're own eceonomic state.

Posted by Mike N. 2007-12-12 02:18|| 2007-12-12 02:18|| Front Page Top

#6 Prediction applet courtesy Morgan Stanley.

Posted by twobyfour 2007-12-12 03:07|| 2007-12-12 03:07|| Front Page Top

#7 Fred, were trying to post the image from www.twobyfour.(i)nfo and it did not post. Do you have .(i)nfo blocked? Can you whitelist my domain? I plan to do a blog there and from time to time I may reference it in Opinions.

You seem to have blocked the extension itself, hence the brackets.

Posted by twobyfour 2007-12-12 03:13|| 2007-12-12 03:13|| Front Page Top

#8 I don't see it, yet. The economy is still growing and managing, but is fragile. We will see, but I ain't panicking yet.

Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader 2007-12-12 07:46|| 2007-12-12 07:46|| Front Page Top

#9 We might be facing a correction, where companies downsize and merge. These are short lived because the process results in economic efficiency. "Recession" is an overused term.

Posted by McZoid 2007-12-12 09:25|| 2007-12-12 09:25|| Front Page Top

#10 While the view from the upper floors of the trading houses and banks on Wall Street becomes more breathtaking as they step out onto the window ledges, former masters of the universe taking a swan dive may be just what the economy needs...

Posted by M. Murcek">M. Murcek 2007-12-12 10:27|| 2007-12-12 10:27|| Front Page Top

#11 The recession will begin in earnest shortly after the New Hampshire primary. It will end in late January 2009, unless a Republican is elected, in which event it will continue for four more years. Economic data will remain essentially constant throughout.

Posted by Matt 2007-12-12 11:12|| 2007-12-12 11:12|| Front Page Top

#12

;-)

Matt.

Posted by Seafarious 2007-12-12 11:17|| 2007-12-12 11:17|| Front Page Top

#13 Two things. First, it has been noted that typically there is an economic downturn before a new president takes office, running from before the election to about six to nine months of the new president's term.

Second, Morgan Stanley is probably *hoping* for a recession, a strong bear market being the fastest way they could recoup their losses and balance off projected future losses.

That is, right now the market is high, so there is little chance it will go significantly higher in the short or mid term. So little money to be made there. They could make a lot more money if the market goes on a slow, extended downward cycle.

Posted by Anonymoose 2007-12-12 13:32|| 2007-12-12 13:32|| Front Page Top

#14 20+ years ago Luis Rukyser on Wall Street Week in Review made the salient comment on this.....

"Wall Street did what it does best today; it panicked."

The fact that on the news today they are saying that Iraq is a dead issue cause it's going well means that the Demons have to concentrate on how terrible the economy is......must be a coincidence.

Posted by AlanC 2007-12-12 13:50|| 2007-12-12 13:50|| Front Page Top

#15 If Morgan Stanley has noticed it, it must be over.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2007-12-12 15:01|| 2007-12-12 15:01|| Front Page Top

#16 DIGG > LA TIMES - THE SYMPTOMS/SIGNS OF ECONOMIC DEPRESSION.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2007-12-12 23:50|| 2007-12-12 23:50|| Front Page Top

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