Article

2006-10-09 China-Japan-Koreas

China denounces "brazen" North Korea nuclear test

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Posted by Steve White 2006-10-09 14:20|| || Front Page|| [11135 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 China's denunciation is just so much diplomatic hand-waving. Nothing else.

Attacking NKor-land simply isn't a viable option, given the 10 to 15,000 artillery tubes pointed at Seoul.

Steve, I've asked for and never received even a cocktail napkin estimate of just how reliable all that superannuated "artillery" pointing at Seoul is.

Consider the massive expenditure of labor and money needed to rotate out stale munitions, test fire the emplacements and so forth. I'd bet that less than 10% of those "tubes" are worth more than their scrap metal weight. North Korea's economy is so marginal that there is no way in Hades they've been able to keep that many cannon battle-ready. What's your own estimate? I truly doubt you think all 10-15,000 units can be readily mobilized.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2006-10-09 14:47|| 2006-10-09 14:47|| Front Page Top

#2 Only one way to find out for sure.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-10-09 14:48|| 2006-10-09 14:48|| Front Page Top

#3 Zen, I'm no artillery expert. Assume for the moment that the NKors have been able to do the work necessary to ensure that 90%+ tubes will fire and that 90% of the ammo will go boom. 10,000 * 0.9 * 0.9 still leaves Seoul a huge mess.

While I'm sure that the US and SKors have some plan for counterbattery fire, Seoul will still be devestated by the time we shut down the NKors. Perhaps someone with more experience will comment on this.

Posted by Steve White">Steve White 2006-10-09 14:51|| 2006-10-09 14:51|| Front Page Top

#4 Steve, do you honestly believe that 90% of those tubes are functional? I cannot possibly imagine that they are. North Korea has diverted way too much finances, starving manpower and scarce materiel into their nuclear weapons project. It is more than easy to imagine that refreshing and testing all that artillery has fallen by the wayside.

How many reports have you ever read about the sounds of cannon fire coming from across the DMZ? Zero is my count. I think you can safely cut those numbers by 90%. Which all makes sense in light of Kim so desperately pursuing nuclear weapons. He needs to offset the huge loss of threat from attriting all that artillery.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2006-10-09 15:00|| 2006-10-09 15:00|| Front Page Top

#5 Maybe SoKor should boost the price of scrapiron to see what comes across the border in carts.

Posted by wxjames 2006-10-09 15:17|| 2006-10-09 15:17|| Front Page Top

#6 Even if only 20% are functional, that's still 2-3000 tubes firing 2 shells a minute or 240-360,000 an hour.

Posted by ed 2006-10-09 15:29|| 2006-10-09 15:29|| Front Page Top

#7 Have they properly stored the charges for the guns? The shells? Are the gun crews trained well enough not to screw up and blow their entire battery up?

OK, not stuff you want to bank on, but I suspect the answers aren't good for NorK.

Posted by Rob Crawford">Rob Crawford 2006-10-09 15:32|| http://www.kloognome.com/]">[http://www.kloognome.com/] 2006-10-09 15:32|| Front Page Top

#8 Even if only 20% are functional, that's still 2-3000 tubes firing 2 shells a minute or 240-360,000 an hour.

Now attrit 80% of the shells then remodify tube functionality stats for destructive misfires in the first few rounds and you have an incredibly lower number. Their ammo is stale, their guns are rusty and their crews are undermanned.

Now add in massive JDAM airstrikes against satellite observed and charted positions within ten minutes of them firing the first round. That should knock off another huge percentage.

Are the gun crews trained well enough not to screw up and blow their entire battery up?

Have the gun crews even been fed within the last two weeks?

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2006-10-09 15:45|| 2006-10-09 15:45|| Front Page Top

#9 Also, Stalinist militaries are fanatics when it comes to numbers and tend to take shortcuts to get there. Example, if Battery A is to shoot X number of mortars in Y minutes, they had better well do it or face the NKor version of the GRU. That means that mortar charges will be stacked up for easy access and shells will be stacked around the tube. One accident and SPLAAT goes that position.

Posted by Shieldwolf 2006-10-09 15:53|| 2006-10-09 15:53|| Front Page Top

#10 Great point, Shieldwolf. Plus, where does that original number of 10-15,000 tubes come from, North Korean propaganda? I would not put it past them to have created mock emplacements just like those fake "tanks" that were really canopy draped cars in WWII.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2006-10-09 15:57|| 2006-10-09 15:57|| Front Page Top

#11 The question is: Do you feel lucky enough to wager Seoul on it, Zenster?

Posted by Pappy 2006-10-09 16:05|| 2006-10-09 16:05|| Front Page Top

#12 I'm not sure at all that Zenster cares about Seoul in this context. But perhaps I'm wrong???

Posted by lotp 2006-10-09 16:07|| 2006-10-09 16:07|| Front Page Top

#13 Yes, I care about Seoul. I just question North Korea's ability to make good on what appears to be an incredibly exaggerated threat. Consider for one moment what the cost of maintaining 10-15,00 artillery tubes is. We're talking millions of dollars a year, if not per month.

Things are so tight for North Korea, when they walk, their shoes squeak.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2006-10-09 16:18|| 2006-10-09 16:18|| Front Page Top

#14 I, personally, am willing to trade Seoul now for preventing a mushroom cloud over NYC later. That is where we are at in world history, people; and this Hobson's choice is due in no small part to SOUTH Korea politics of the past 10 years - including their appeasement and support of the NKor regime.

Posted by Shieldwolf 2006-10-09 16:20|| 2006-10-09 16:20|| Front Page Top

#15 Hard to argue with that, Shieldwolf. QED.

Posted by exJAG 2006-10-09 16:32|| 2006-10-09 16:32|| Front Page Top

#16 That is where we are at in world history, people; and this Hobson's choice is due in no small part to SOUTH Korea politics of the past 10 years - including their appeasement and support of the NKor regime.

Bingo, Shieldwolf. It's time that South Korea pays the piper for facilitating a threat to this entire globe's security.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2006-10-09 16:45|| 2006-10-09 16:45|| Front Page Top

#17 Most of that artillery probably can't reach Seoul. The high ground where the artillery tunnels are (I believe) is over 50km away from metro Seoul.

I think NK has only two types of long range guns/bombardment rockets that can do the job, the 170mm "Koksan" gun and the 240mm long-range rockets. These would be only a fraction of the 10,000 artillery weapons.

Most of the artillery would be intended to attack military positions nearer the 38th parallel.

Posted by buwaya 2006-10-09 17:17|| 2006-10-09 17:17|| Front Page Top

#18 Its artillery forces possessed over 8,300 of the 76.2 mm, 100 mm, 122 mm, 130 mm, 152 mm, and 170 mm howitzers and guns, over 2,700 of the 107 mm, 122 mm, 132 mm, 240 mm multiple rocket launchers, and more than 12,500 anti-aircraft guns.Global Security

Most were made in the 70s and 80s as well as most of the ammunition. Unless China or Russia is giving them new fuzes, a good percentage of them will start becoming duds. I don't know what the failure rate for fuzes in the Soviet/Chinese/NK military is, but for the US 3% is considered very high and can lead to the removal of that entire fuse lot. I imagine Russian/chinese failure rates are higher and the NK much higher than that. As they get older, the fuzes fail more.

Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader 2006-10-09 17:17|| 2006-10-09 17:17|| Front Page Top

#19 That gaggle of cadaverous Generals ("props" is prolly more accurate) that follow Kimmie around could always take care of this problem, and it wouldn't necessarily require ChiCom assistance.

But surely the ChiComs have identified or placed a few reliable agents in strategic places... the signal to proceed is what's lacking thus far. IMHO, if they don't, then it means that the ChiComs want the puppet to continue dancing and this is just another stunt in their foreign policy game.

As AP points out, they could starve this clown out if they wanted to. They could also, IMHO, kill him if they wanted.

Posted by .com 2006-10-09 17:29|| 2006-10-09 17:29|| Front Page Top

#20 Thank you for some real numbers, Darth. Per yours and Buwaya's post, I increasingly call bullshit on North Korea's artillery threat.

.com, I think the only thing preventing someone in that goon squad from knifing Kim in the back is how all the others might interfere to get a big reward from their fearless leader. Like, maybe, some Ding Dongs or Ho-Hos for dessert that night.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2006-10-09 17:33|| 2006-10-09 17:33|| Front Page Top

#21 Like Shielfwolf, I would be fine trading "Seoul now for preventing a mushroom cloud over NYC later."

However, I spent a week in South Korea about a year ago. Toured the DMZ. Talked to a lot of South Koreans about the North.

I came away with the idea that we should not allow one American soldier to die for Seoul, or any other S. Korean country.

One, a lot of the youngsters hate us. I mean, really hate our presence. They see us as the instigators of the Korean War in the first place. That government that the lefties voted in is in place right now.

The S. Koreans are supposed to be big boys now. I saw withdraw (at least to Pusan), and put our chips into Japan. At least they understand what it's like to be hated by the world community ...

Posted by Mizzou Mafia 2006-10-09 17:51|| 2006-10-09 17:51|| Front Page Top

#22 bring our troops out now - let the SKor's face the consequences of their decisions. We need to work with Japan and Taiwan to make China pay, bigtime for their little dog, ~~Toto~~ Kimmy. I'm not so sure the Taiwanese or Japanese don't have "instant access" to nukes.

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2006-10-09 19:20|| 2006-10-09 19:20|| Front Page Top

#23 I don't much give a damn whether South Korea likes us or not. Letting Kimmie have a nuke is not something that should be.

If China and South Korea are truly upset about this, then perhaps they could join us in establishing a blockade of North Korea until Kimmie gets tossed.

Posted by Dar">Dar 2006-10-09 19:29|| 2006-10-09 19:29|| Front Page Top

#24 The question is: Do you feel lucky enough to wager Seoul on it, Zenster?

I do. 7 come 11, baby needs a new pair of shoes!

Posted by NoBeards 2006-10-09 19:54|| 2006-10-09 19:54|| Front Page Top

#25 Words! Words! Words! I'm so sick of words!
I get words all day through;
First from him now from you!
Is that all you blighters can do?

Posted by Jackal">Jackal 2006-10-09 21:39|| http://home.earthlink.net/~sleepyjackal/index.html]">[http://home.earthlink.net/~sleepyjackal/index.html] 2006-10-09 21:39|| Front Page Top

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