Article

2006-06-18 Home Front: WoT

Qaeda Cell Planned a Poison-gas Attack on the N.Y. Subway

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Posted by Fred 2006-06-18 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11140 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Keep in mind, this is Time mag and this is from a guy trying to hock a book. Suskind is the guy who authored a book about Paul O'Neil, former treasury head and traveling companion of Bono.

Posted by Captain America 2006-06-18 01:24|| 2006-06-18 01:24|| Front Page Top

#2 So I decided to figure out if this could really be a threat. My assumptions:

• Standard temperature and pressure (STP, ∴ Avogardro's law is valid)
• 1000m³ room volume (envision a 70' by 70' conference room with high ceilings)
• The room has poor ventilation and excellent circulation (air conditioning is out, so the management brought in fans... I didn't want to spend 2 hours relearning differential calculus and diffusion equations, yuk)
• The device can generate one kilogram of HCN (hydrogen cyanide) in a few seconds

Anyway, HCN is 31g/mole and 1 kg of it is 32.25 moles. The room has a volume of 1000m³ and thus 1,000,000 liters. All gasses have a molar volume of 22.4 moles/liter at STP, so that gives me 44,643 moles of gas in the room. The HCN released in the room will yield a concentration of 722 ppm of HCN. NIOSH gives the Immediate Danger to Life and Health of HCN as 50 ppm. The median lethal concentration for a rat is between 323 and 503 parts per million for 5 minutes. The back of the envelope calculation says it might be technically feasible. Of course my math could be all screwed up, too.

Posted by 11A5S 2006-06-18 01:44|| 2006-06-18 01:44|| Front Page Top

#3 Suskind quotes a CIA operative as questioning whether it was an accident that the Saudis had killed the kingpin who could expose a cell planning a chemical weapons attack inside the U.S. "The Saudis just shrugged," the source tells Suskind. "They said their people got a little overzealous."

Funny how many ~~Saudi agents~~ terror suspects end up shot or beheaded before they can be interrogated.

Posted by Robert Crawford">Robert Crawford 2006-06-18 08:33|| http://www.kloognome.com/]">[http://www.kloognome.com/] 2006-06-18 08:33|| Front Page Top

#4 Hmmm. HCN = 1+12+14 = 27g/mol, so 1 kg HCN = 37 moles, times 22.4L/mol = 830 liters HCN. Assuming instant, uniform dispersal through a volume of 1,000,000 liters, I get 830 ppm HCN (I think ppm is by volume, not by moles). I'd use the same source you do for LD50s, so I'd have to agree that it could be adios muchachos.

HCN was better known an Zyklon B, and it used to be the gas used for capital punishment in the US. So we know HCN works just fine in enclosed spaces.

The 1993 WTC bombers originally planned to load the truck with many cylinders of HCN as well as explosives. Yousef's idea was to detonate the truck bomb next to a key support pillar, knocking one tower over into the other, and then gassing everyone as they fled.

That wouldn't have worked. The subway scenario could. But that also isn't news. See, e.g., Aum Shinrikyo, sarin, Tokyo subway, 1995.

Posted by Elmeans Snong2219 2006-06-18 08:45|| 2006-06-18 08:45|| Front Page Top

#5 is that even math? Sarcasm off

Posted by Greamp Elmavinter1163 2006-06-18 12:02|| 2006-06-18 12:02|| Front Page Top

#6 Parts per million (ppm)is usually expressed as milligrams per liter. 11A5S---Avagadro would be proud of ye, heh.

If al Q was to do an effective subway job, they would have to deal with the ventilation issue. And they would have to coordinate with others, which would increase the chance of being noticed by security personnel and cameras. A terrorist could do some damage, and hurt or kill a number of civilians, but I doubt that they could successfully pull off the big show that they would want to happen.

Also, they are probably thinking of the rain of hell that they would experience if they did pull it off. We are fighting Al Q in a pretty restrained fashion. If we had a mass casualty incident, Wazoo, for one place, would become land 'o' many BIG craters, along with other places.

Posted by Alaska Paul">Alaska Paul 2006-06-18 15:22|| 2006-06-18 15:22|| Front Page Top

#7 If we had a mass casualty incident, Wazoo, for one place, would become land 'o' many BIG craters, along with other places.

Never happen, regardless of what happens. Jihadis could rape and gas a day care center and the response would be lectures about our need to understand Islam.

Posted by Robert Crawford">Robert Crawford 2006-06-18 15:55|| http://www.kloognome.com/]">[http://www.kloognome.com/] 2006-06-18 15:55|| Front Page Top

#8 I have fears that you are right, Robert, but my hopes are that we get a clue. The Brits totally fell apart, governmental-wise after their 7/7 incident. Russia under Putin, the same thing. Only thing that happened after Beslan was Putin consolidating power.

A couple of serious reprisals against al Q and the financiers would put a message out and stop this nonsense. We don't have to be loved. We don't have to be liked. Hell, we don't have to be respected. All we have to be with our enemies is feared. They need to feel real fear for themselves and their kin. That will get them squared away.

This whole thing is very frustrating, when we have the means but not the will to deal with it.

Posted by Alaska Paul">Alaska Paul 2006-06-18 16:28|| 2006-06-18 16:28|| Front Page Top

#9 ES2219: You're right. I screwed up the easiest calc of the whole bunch, adding up the atomic weights of H, C, and N. I now come up with the same number as you.

Posted by 11A5S 2006-06-18 17:23|| 2006-06-18 17:23|| Front Page Top

#10 Thanks, AP.

Posted by 11A5S 2006-06-18 17:29|| 2006-06-18 17:29|| Front Page Top

#11 BTW, AP, sorry for the non-standard units, but all of my edumacation in toxic gasses comes from the OSHA HAZWOPER world and their literature always uses ppm.

Posted by 11A5S 2006-06-18 17:33|| 2006-06-18 17:33|| Front Page Top

#12 I just came back from a water pilot testing trip. All of our chemical additions are in mg/l or parts per million. When we mix the volumes, we convert ppm or mg/l to volumes with specific gravity. Volumes come and go, but weight, well is more constant.

Posted by Alaska Paul">Alaska Paul 2006-06-18 18:16|| 2006-06-18 18:16|| Front Page Top

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