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2006-04-03 Iraq

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Posted by Dan Darling 2006-04-03 03:14|| || Front Page|| [12 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 What's up with Sistani??? Black turbin-check, first name Grand Ayatollah-check. And yet... I still don't trust him, but he seems to be acting as a force for good, so far. Is he just keeping his powder dry (so to speak) to "turn" at a critical moment? Is it a Qom/Najaf turf battle over the Shite world that is causing him to resist Iranian influence? God, I wish I knew.

Posted by Cleresh Spinese1634 2006-04-03 08:33|| 2006-04-03 08:33|| Front Page Top

#2 " Is it a Qom/Najaf turf battle over the Shite world that is causing him to resist Iranian influence?"

Yes ... plus Sistani's consistently favored a more secular government. IMHO Sistani has been and remains a key to Iraq's future.

Posted by doc 2006-04-03 09:34|| 2006-04-03 09:34|| Front Page Top

#3 hmm, while ive been a sistani defender here in the past, Im not sure his role now is so much positive as it is cautious.

Note - Hakim himself hasnt called for Jaafari to step down - hes still using aides do so. And SCIRI hasnt yet threatened to leave the UIA block and directly form a coalition with the Kurd/Sunni/Allawi coalition, leaving the Sadrist and Dawa in the lurch. Until they do, they are bound by the majority vote in the UIA.

My sense is that Sistani is conflicted - we know he hates Sadr and the Khomeinists - but hes commmitted to Shiite unity in the UIA - both cause he wants the Shiite laypeople to dominate Iraq, and hes afraid that if they dont, much of the Shiite street (esp the poor) will follow Sadr, weakening the religious authority of Najaf. But the Dawa-Sadr alliance, and its majority within the UIA has him in a bind - theres no easy way to oust Jaafari without splitting the UIA. IF UIA were split then the coalition of SCIRI-Kurds-Sunnis-Allawi could easily make Mahdi the PM. Instead theyre trying to offer Jaafari and Dawa inducements for change, like offering a compromise candidate.

I think what Rice and Straw are there to do is, basically, bring the message to Sistani that Jaafari has to go, and there has to be a Shiite candidate for PM whos acceptable to the Kurds, Sunnis, and Allawi-secularists. And to assure him that US and UK troops will protect the state, and protect Najaf, and protect him personally, if Sadr calls on his people to hit the mattresses again.

Posted by liberalhawk 2006-04-03 10:30|| 2006-04-03 10:30|| Front Page Top

#4 Here is the way I see it. Jafaari is gone - it's not if but when. He'll get his dog Sadr to snarl and bark, but it's not going to work. Someone else will get the job and a new set of problems will arise.

Posted by 2b 2006-04-03 10:51|| 2006-04-03 10:51|| Front Page Top

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