Article

2005-12-30 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

German media reports US (and Turkey?) preparing to hit Iran

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Posted by Dan Darling 2005-12-30 14:12|| || Front Page|| [11 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 faster please

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2005-12-30 14:22|| 2005-12-30 14:22|| Front Page Top

#2 But the respected German weekly Der Spiegel notes "What is new here is that Washington appears to be dispatching high-level officials to prepare its allies for a possible attack rather than merely implying the possibility as it has repeatedly done during the past year."

Yea, kraut fu**s, thanks for the free publicity. As that famous Irishman Emeril Lagasse would say, "we're kicking it up a notch."

Posted by Besoeker 2005-12-30 14:27|| 2005-12-30 14:27|| Front Page Top

#3 Iran will fall on it's own knife. We only need to blow up an oil well, or refinery or two.

Posted by anymouse">anymouse 2005-12-30 14:27|| 2005-12-30 14:27|| Front Page Top

#4 When Bush invited those newspaper bosses over for a chat I wonder if he gave them this phone-tapping thing in return for them keeping quiet about preparations for Iran?

Posted by Jake-the-Peg 2005-12-30 14:39|| 2005-12-30 14:39|| Front Page Top

#5 Wheelin and dealin. No doubt the Turks want the PKK's ass.

Iran is fucked, one way or the other.

But what of the State Department, where the hell is their damn revolution for Iran?

EP

Posted by ElvisHasLeftTheBuilding 2005-12-30 14:47|| 2005-12-30 14:47|| Front Page Top

#6 And in other news, the Third Army was renamed the Golden Horde.

Posted by ed 2005-12-30 14:59|| 2005-12-30 14:59|| Front Page Top

#7 "But what of the State Department, where the hell is their damn revolution for Iran?"

Stuck somewhere in Foggy Bottom...

Posted by The Happy Fliegerabwehrkanonen 2005-12-30 15:12|| http://www.calderonswirbelwind.blogspot.com]">[http://www.calderonswirbelwind.blogspot.com] 2005-12-30 15:12|| Front Page Top

#8 If the vote about Turkey helping with Iraq was a close defeat, it seems to me ever more unlikely that Turkey would be willing to help out with an attack on Iran.

Especially since Erdogan has been generally been a bit more philo-Iranian than his predecessors.

Posted by Aris Katsaris">Aris Katsaris 2005-12-30 15:38|| 2005-12-30 15:38|| Front Page Top

#9 That's right, The Turks are actually planning a suprise attack on the Greeks. They plan on owning the Greeks as slaves and they will. The EU will be powerless to stop them since they couldn't fight their way out of a wet paper bag.

Posted by Mahou Sensei Negi-bozu 2005-12-30 15:47|| 2005-12-30 15:47|| Front Page Top

#10 Good point, Aris. They probably think they can screw the USA again like they did with Iraq. I don't think we are offering much this time since Encirlik would be convenient, but not really needed.

Posted by SR-71">SR-71 2005-12-30 15:50|| 2005-12-30 15:50|| Front Page Top

#11 Got some deep-rooted psycho issues, anonymous coward "Mahou sensei", of the sort that prevents you from seeing my name even once without trying to turn a thread into a garbage pile? Is that a Pavlovian response you have developed, whoever you really are?

Posted by Aris Katsaris">Aris Katsaris 2005-12-30 15:54|| 2005-12-30 15:54|| Front Page Top

#12 Aris is right. I honestly don't see the Turks helping us with Iran. It's far more likely that they will try to "play" us in some manner.

In the short run, Erdogan is not an ally. In the long run, he is probably an enemy.

Posted by Secret Master 2005-12-30 16:06|| 2005-12-30 16:06|| Front Page Top

#13

Isn't that the "Der Spiegel" Building in Hamburg Germany? Why are we seeing that on the onboard cruise missile cameras? They are all supposed to be headed to Iran...

Posted by BigEd 2005-12-30 16:15|| 2005-12-30 16:15|| Front Page Top

#14 Things that will have to happen before the US launches any preemptive offensive operations against Iran (look for these):

1) Status of the US Navy:
http://www.chinfo.navy.mil/navpalib/news/.www/status.html

2) Dispersal of US and British forces, Iraq. Movement of artillery, MLRS, anti-missile batteries to the East.

3) Xfer of critical support and attack air wings to theater.

4) Withdrawl of friendly foreign nationals and draw down of allied or friendly nation embassy personnel in Iran. It being Iran, this will be faster than normal.

5) Improvements to alternate air bases in Iraq and Afghanistan.

6) About a gazillion other things.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-12-30 16:25|| 2005-12-30 16:25|| Front Page Top

#15 Things that will have to happen before the US launches any preemptive offensive operations against Iran (look for these):

1) Status of the US Navy:
http://www.chinfo.navy.mil/navpalib/news/.www/status.html

2) Dispersal of US and British forces, Iraq. Movement of artillery, MLRS, anti-missile batteries to the East.

3) Xfer of critical support and attack air wings to theater.

4) Withdrawl of friendly foreign nationals and draw down of allied or friendly nation embassy personnel in Iran. It being Iran, this will be faster than normal.

5) Improvements to alternate air bases in Iraq and Afghanistan.

6) About a gazillion other things.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-12-30 16:26|| 2005-12-30 16:26|| Front Page Top

#16 It'll be a lot easier to get the Turks on-board for Iraq than it will for Iran because of the latter's direct and continuing support for both al-Qaeda and the PKK. We've noted here the links between various al-Qaeda attacks in Turkey and the group's Iran-based leadership and if we know it, so do the Turks. Iranian support for the PKK (and any other group that wants to take a shot at the Turkish government) is a matter of public record since the 1979 revolution.

As for Erdogan being philo-Iranian, I disagree. He and the AKP appear to be receiving a large influx of Saudi or at least Gulf cash (which again we've documented here) to fund their political machine and there have been some disturbing reports about his respect for the rule of law and the like, but that's a different issue altogether from whether or not he'll support action against the mullahs. I would also note that Erdogan's beliefs may be irrelevant on this one since the Turkish military seems to be on-board from the article and it was the secular parties, not the AKP (whatever one thinks of them) that scuttled the Iraq vote for political advantage the last time around.

Posted by Dan Darling">Dan Darling 2005-12-30 16:29|| http://www.regnumcrucis.blogspot.com]">[http://www.regnumcrucis.blogspot.com] 2005-12-30 16:29|| Front Page Top

#17 To follow up on Dan's remarks, we should also remember that Turkey considers Iran to be a regional threat. There are border issues as well. Add to that the opportunity to squash the PKK and make nice to the US (still their most reliable Western ally), and it adds up to a plausible scenario.

The real issue, for me, is that an attack will certainly turn the Iranian people against us. Right now a big chunk of the young and the business community are favorably disposed towards us, but an attack will swing them behind the Mad Mullahsâ¢ in a hurry. And it will give the MM's the opportunity to kill/jug a lot of political opponents.

I'd still prefer to see the Second Iranian Revolution. But if the MM's are too close to a nuke, then air strikes it is.

Aside to Aris: you're being baited. Don't bite.

Posted by Steve White">Steve White 2005-12-30 16:39|| 2005-12-30 16:39|| Front Page Top

#18 Never trust the Turks. Or Greeks for that matter.

Posted by Oldspook 2005-12-30 16:39|| 2005-12-30 16:39|| Front Page Top

#19 The problem won't be the Turks, but the Americans. Bush needs to do a lot more home work before he can launch another pre-emptive attack.

Has anyone asked the CIA to figure out what the likely response of Iran to an attack would be? Has anyone asked the CIA to figure out how long Iran could go without selling oil?

This smells like a psyop.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2005-12-30 16:41|| 2005-12-30 16:41|| Front Page Top

#20 #7 "But what of the State Department, where the hell is their damn revolution for Iran?"

Waiting on the Air Strikes. The Iranian gov has got thousands of trained and ready suicide bombers, not to mention I dont think anyone in the gulf region dont remember the 91' Shia Kurd uprising that go slaughtered by a few helicopters and tanks. With massive air strikes decapitation and gutting of the military then go to a nation wide no-fly-zone, then wait to see what happens the cities that revolt get SOF insertion and weapons so they can grow from thier. Oil spot theory after a Sledge hammer theory is done. I think once the Iranian leadership is crushed and hiding thier command and control is obliterated air force is gone along with the air defences, thier armour and major units are trapped in hiding and if they try to move to the hot spot they are decimated on the roads, the revolution will happen its the only way they will have a fighting chance.

Posted by C-Low 2005-12-30 16:58|| 2005-12-30 16:58|| Front Page Top

#21 I am sorry, but if we are in control of iran to the west and afganistan to the east, we are talking to turkey about - what?

Posted by flash91 2005-12-30 17:18|| 2005-12-30 17:18|| Front Page Top

#22 A third front.

Posted by Raj 2005-12-30 18:38|| 2005-12-30 18:38|| Front Page Top

#23 a warning not to take our distraction with the "Iranian problem" as license to intervene with Iraq's Kurds...

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2005-12-30 20:01|| 2005-12-30 20:01|| Front Page Top

#24 W has been preparing the country for the last year. If he decides that we need to strike Iran, he will strike. He knows that he has convinced as many as he can already. He also knows that he will not convince the LLL. A nuke detonating in NY would convince them.

The Dhims and the LLL are already threatening impeachment for legal wiretaps. He will order the strike if he deems it necessary.

We will not depend on Turkey again. If it is in their interest to cooperate on Iran, fine. Otherwise, no bribes (foreign aid). Erdogan played us like a tin whistle last time. Never again. As far as I am concerned, they are on their own.

Posted by SR-71">SR-71 2005-12-30 21:01|| 2005-12-30 21:01|| Front Page Top

#25 He won't order a pre-emptive strike without congressional approval. He's been preparing the country, but the country is not prepared. The debate next time will be vigorous, especially as the donks will be doing auditions for thier convention acceptance speeches. Absent an attack on the U. S. proper, we won't strike Iran.

Israel, on the other hand...

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2005-12-30 21:21|| 2005-12-30 21:21|| Front Page Top

#26 Let's suppose there's no airstrike. Suppose that from somewhere in the Indian Ocean sometime past midnite 16 tubes launch with multiple warhead capacity aboard each. Flight time = 20-30 minutes.Kerrrboom!

Posted by SOP35/Rat 2005-12-30 21:39|| 2005-12-30 21:39|| Front Page Top

#27 Bush won't do anything. His Potemkin Village credibility depends on happy Iraq Shiites aping his "freedom" BS. An attack on Iran would topple the facade of positive development in the Iraq' dog's breakfast. Rich oil-patch brats think only in terms of quarterly profits. Dallas wouldn't want their President to cause downward spikes.

It all about the oil, boys and girls. And I would like to see the Mid East patch restored to its rightful Anglo-American owners in place of towel-heads with Texas pals. Send the Bedouins back to their camels, and the Persians back to their sheep.

Posted by CaziFarkus">CaziFarkus 2005-12-30 21:46|| deleted]">[deleted] 2005-12-30 21:46|| Front Page Top

#28 always interesting Cazifarkus, to know what drivel you'll put up, but it's sure to circle around the Oil war....

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2005-12-30 21:58|| 2005-12-30 21:58|| Front Page Top

#29 However, if the Euros reject Turk membership in the EU, they could seek other alliances.
http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=94145

However, US engagement with the Islamofascist leadership of Turkey, would mirror the perverse rehabilitation of the terror entity of Pakistan.

Posted by CaziFarkus">CaziFarkus 2005-12-30 22:00|| deleted]">[deleted] 2005-12-30 22:00|| Front Page Top

#30 FrankG? Aren't you the genius who denies growing clerical power in Iraq? I challenge Bush family anti-Secularism because it facilitates consolidation and development of anti-Secular tyrannies. You support it because...you are a pliant little weasel. Grow a backbone.

Posted by CaziFarkus">CaziFarkus 2005-12-30 22:07|| deleted]">[deleted] 2005-12-30 22:07|| Front Page Top

#31 LOL - no, I don't deny SCIRI and friends are growing power. I just think they get more attention than they deserve. I still think Sadr should've been taken out of the "living" category early on in his first defiance. Backbone, huh?

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2005-12-30 22:10|| 2005-12-30 22:10|| Front Page Top

#32 I do not believe that W will seek Congressional approval for a strike on Iran. The Dhims and probably the Rinos will not approve. They and their staffs would leak selectively, and it would be a circus from the beginning.

A strike would decapitate their government and significantly set back their weapons program. Ground action would be confined to sealing their borders. Nation building is probably not contemplated. The Iranians will have to do this on their own.

If the Administration decides that Iran has nuclear weapons (very soon) and is an existential threat (I believe now), W will order the strike. The stakes are too high. W takes his oath to defend the nation too seriously to let political games prevent him from acting.

I believe that he will make the decision irrespective of personal political or legacy considerations.

Posted by SR-71">SR-71 2005-12-30 22:10|| 2005-12-30 22:10|| Front Page Top

#33 Cassini and CaziFarkus are starting to make me long for the good old days when Aris was the most obnoxious kid at the burg.

Posted by Darrell 2005-12-30 22:11|| 2005-12-30 22:11|| Front Page Top

#34 we've had our share of dipshits: Gentle, NMM, Murat....

all share a common denial of reality.

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2005-12-30 22:26|| 2005-12-30 22:26|| Front Page Top

#35 Check this out, funky soul brothers:

http://regimechangeiran.blogspot.com/2005/12/media-ignores-irans-other-senior.html

Posted by CaziFarkus">CaziFarkus 2005-12-30 23:02|| deleted]">[deleted] 2005-12-30 23:02|| Front Page Top

#36 Ask the CIA?

Didn't their last report state that Iran would have a nuclear bomb/missle in 5-10 years? I seem to remember some WaPo or NY Times frontpage story telling everyone to go back to sleep.

Don't know if I'd ask the CIA what time it is...

Posted by Danking70 2005-12-30 23:18|| 2005-12-30 23:18|| Front Page Top

23:45 Danking70
23:18 Danking70
23:10 Frank G
23:07 Bobby
23:02 CaziFarkus
22:59 Frank G
22:53 Bobby
22:32 Angerese Tholuck4717
22:26 Frank G
22:11 Darrell
22:10 SR-71
22:10 Frank G
22:07 CaziFarkus
22:04 CrazyFool
22:00 CaziFarkus
21:58 Frank G
21:56 Frank G
21:46 CaziFarkus
21:43 Red Dog
21:39 SOP35/Rat
21:38 remoteman
21:37 Elmavirong Phavirong2716
21:36 Red Dog
21:28 Red Dog