Article

2005-05-18 Africa: Subsaharan

Marburg toll tops 300 (Government sez no longer under control)

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Posted by phil_b 2005-05-18 17:42|| || Front Page|| [2 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 They want money. They really, really want money.

Posted by Zhang Fei">Zhang Fei 2005-05-18 20:55|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-05-18 20:55|| Front Page Top

#2 Well, let's hope the zombie outbreak doesn't get that far...

Posted by mojo">mojo 2005-05-18 21:02|| 2005-05-18 21:02|| Front Page Top

#3 Zhang, the Angolan government relies on oil revenues, which means it relies on expats to keep the oil pumping. It has been going to great lengths to project an image of things are under control (some people think it has been doctoring the numbers) and substantially that message is directed at the expats and their families. To turn around and say its no longer under control is a startling admission. I suspect we are about to see a return to exponential spread after about 2 weeks where it seemed under control.

Posted by phil_b 2005-05-18 21:08|| 2005-05-18 21:08|| Front Page Top

#4 WHO numbers through 5/17 show 29 new cases in the last 14 days, meaning the rate of new cases has actually slowed, from about 5 a day to about 2 a day. I'll update my Marburg site tomorrow but the WHO report is here.

Support from religious and community leaders has also allowed the work of mobile surveillance teams to run more smoothly, increasing the efficiency of case finding and contact tracing. However, some new cases continue to be linked to exposure in homes and at funerals, indicating that public understanding of the disease still needs to be improved.

As transmission of the virus requires close personal contact with an ill or recently deceased patient, the risk to international travellers to Angola is considered to be very low. WHO does not recommend any restrictions on travel or trade to or from Angola.

If WHO is doctoring the numbers. well... I don't believe it. And the spread has never been exponential, it's been a basic straight line with under a 45 degree angle.

Posted by Chuck Simmins">Chuck Simmins 2005-05-18 21:34|| http://blog.simmins.org]">[http://blog.simmins.org] 2005-05-18 21:34|| Front Page Top

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