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2005-03-03 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

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Posted by Steve 2005-03-03 8:36:39 AM|| || Front Page|| [9 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Or setting up for civil war? Strategy Page has an article today about how Baby Eye Doc never consolidated power and the effects being seen now. I would not be at all surprised to see Syria and Lebannon descend into Iraq style insurgency without a Coalition invasion. Then we can let the frogs go in alone and laugh our asses off.

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2005-03-03 9:00:19 AM|| 2005-03-03 9:00:19 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 when the frogs go into Lebanon, we'll have to support them (logistics and all that - no US ground troops to spare), or lose the good will with Lebanese and other pro-change arabs that we've built up since Bushs inaugural and the Iraq election. Go into Syria? I dont think the French will try THAT - if Syria blows, I think it will have its civil war on its own. Its too big for anyone but the US to go into, and I dont see the US going in, for a lot of reasons.

Posted by liberalhawk 2005-03-03 9:52:46 AM|| 2005-03-03 9:52:46 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 our Kurdish allies should be given the means for self-protection from Baathist and Islamic enemies...

Posted by Frank G 2005-03-03 10:22:01 AM|| 2005-03-03 10:22:01 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 oh yeah, frank, the fact that we dont send troops into Syria doesnt mean that we cant do things of importance in Syria in the event of a civil war there. Although the weakness of the CIA on the ground there somewhat limits what we can do - and even covert stuff should be approached with caution, it would be easy to screw things up.

In any case i think we may be jumping the gun - there a POSSIBILITY that the Lebanese situation will trigger collapse in Syria, but I wouldnt count on it.

Posted by liberalhawk 2005-03-03 10:40:17 AM|| 2005-03-03 10:40:17 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 beware when your enemy smiles and greets you.

Lots of people standing back to see what's going to happen. But I can't help wonder at this sudden enlightenment by many who would no doubt be happy to see Assad maintain his grip - so that their own populations don't get any big ideas.

If Assad is going to pull a Tienanmen - and there are plenty of reasons to suspect he might - it will be very bloody. Nothing is gained by showing support for that up front - but it concerns me - that those who have the most to lose by another successful peaceful revolution are quick to wash their hands of what just might be about to follow.

I find it odd and troubling. I hope I'm just being paranoid - but this sudden enlightenment just doesn't feel right to me.

Posted by 2b 2005-03-03 11:08:16 AM|| 2005-03-03 11:08:16 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 Should Assad pull a Tienanmen, it would likely be the end of Syria, or at least it's northern and eastern provinces. Israel might have to clean out the Bekaa Valley too, just to be sure. Baby Eye Doc should take a lesson from the Harari hit. These tactics aren't working well any more.

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2005-03-03 11:17:31 AM|| 2005-03-03 11:17:31 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 I hope you're right. I'm just a bit nervous that the Guardian, NYT, and ALL of the usual suspects suddenly praising what Bush hath brought forth in Syria is odd. I could see one or two...but all of them??? France, Putin, Egypt working on our side?? I think even Hezbollah wasn't willing to commit. Creepy.

The optimist in me says they don't want to be left behind. But Putin and Chirac, Al Guardian, NYT, etc, etc. - all sporting smiley faces - is really creeping me out.

Posted by 2b 2005-03-03 11:30:06 AM|| 2005-03-03 11:30:06 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 ...we'll have to support them (logistics and all that - no US ground troops to spare), or lose the good will with Lebanese and other pro-change arabs that we've built up since Bushs inaugural and the Iraq election.

1.) Why do we have to support them?

2.) Good will from Arabs? Do you believe this statement?

Posted by Jules 187 2005-03-03 11:33:55 AM|| 2005-03-03 11:33:55 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 What do you guys think will happen to Iran if Syria falls - especially if it fall from within? Do you think the masses in Iran would do anything or would the MM crack down even harder on them knowing they were all alone?

Posted by Yosemite Sam 2005-03-03 11:36:46 AM|| 2005-03-03 11:36:46 AM|| Front Page Top

#10 YS-Maybe they'll get more confrontational to the US while simultaneously building deeper relationships (code language-making more business deals) with Europe?

Posted by Jules 187 2005-03-03 11:49:03 AM|| 2005-03-03 11:49:03 AM|| Front Page Top

#11 Liberalhawk, with all due respect--
......when the FROGS GO IN???? Oh, PuLEEZE!! Notice how all the Lebanese demonstrators' signs are in ENGLISH? Even though French was the Western language of preference pre-Civil War? I think it very unlikely that French forces will set foot in Lebanon between now and the one-year Lebanese Independence Day parade. Which I hope is March 15, 2006.

Posted by TwoCents 2005-03-03 12:06:34 PM|| 2005-03-03 12:06:34 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 TwoCents, we can always dream, can't we?

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2005-03-03 12:11:19 PM|| 2005-03-03 12:11:19 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 American airpower, either from carriers in the Med, out of Iraq, or for that matter B-52s and B-2s from the US could SHRED any Syrian ground troops. It only takes a phone call from GWB saying "Make it so."

Posted by RWV 2005-03-03 12:37:51 PM|| 2005-03-03 12:37:51 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 when the FROGS GO IN???? Oh, PuLEEZE!! Notice how all the Lebanese demonstrators' signs are in ENGLISH? Even though French was the Western language of preference pre-Civil War? I think it very unlikely that French forces will set foot in Lebanon between now and the one-year Lebanese Independence Day parade. Which I hope is March 15, 2006.

ive seen pics of signs in French, dont recall where. Lebanon Libre, something like that. Naturally English speaking media would focus on pics of signs in English.

as for why do Putin, Chirac, etc want Assad out of Syria - they DONT afaict. They want him out of Lebanon. Which is where France has economic and other interests, NOT Syria. As for Putin, he may well be trying to save Assad from himself - trying to ease him out of Lebanon so that he can SURVIVE in Syria. It doesnt look at this point that hanging on in Lebanon is a real good strategy for staying in power in Syria, now does it?

As for the Times, they were never as hard left as some of y'all think, even under Raines. And Raines is history. Somebody, it was either Drezner or Sully, had something about the internal politics at the Times. The Guardian, well they have a tendency to print different things as op-eds - they dont enfore ONE viewpoint, and have printed sensible things before - though I wouldnt spend my time looking for them in the morass. In any case, its not like they want to be isolated - they want to remain a player in the discussion, and at some point you need to go with the flow "We are at peace with Eurasia - we've ALWAYS been at peace with Eurasis" if you get my drift.

Posted by liberalhawk 2005-03-03 2:19:50 PM|| 2005-03-03 2:19:50 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 we also shouldnt forget the shock of the killing of Hariri, a very popular, well connected guy. Some, like France and KSA were directly connected to him, and lots of others dont want to look like they dont care and piss off everyone in Lebanon who liked him.

Posted by liberalhawk 2005-03-03 2:26:27 PM|| 2005-03-03 2:26:27 PM|| Front Page Top

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