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2004-12-13 China-Japan-Koreas

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Posted by tipper 2004-12-13 9:44:10 AM|| || Front Page|| [2 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Just wait until they find out that by building up their national defences, all of a sudden their economy will start to strongly improve.

Posted by Anonymoose 2004-12-13 10:15:30 AM|| 2004-12-13 10:15:30 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 "Samawah is not a combat zone", Koizumi said
It's vewy vewy safe, weally.

Posted by lex 2004-12-13 10:21:52 AM|| 2004-12-13 10:21:52 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 moose: One of the unique things about the Japanese military is that it buys exclusively Japanese products. The Japanese do not buy weapons or technology from abroad. That means that some systems, such as their MBT, may not be as capable as what they might have purchased on the international market, but others like missle defense systems may be farther advanced because of Japanese strengths in micro-electronics.

The Japanese are currently more than capable of defending their homeland. In that regard, all they need to keep doing is upping the tech in their systems. Their economic boost would come if they began to export their weapons systems.

As with other cultures in the region, Japan also presents a specific governmental / business interface. For all intents and purposes, big business is government in Japan, through MITI, with the "mafia" running in second place. Japan, from MacArthur onward, is a technocracy, not a democracy.

Posted by Chuck Simmins 2004-12-13 10:27:56 AM|| [http://blog.simmins.org] 2004-12-13 10:27:56 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 If Japan feels they have a real military again, they may question the need for funding all those U.S. troops on its soil. Yes, Japan pays the lion's share of the cost of keeping the U.S. military there.

Posted by gromky 2004-12-13 10:54:56 AM|| 2004-12-13 10:54:56 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 gromky: If Japan feels they have a real military again, they may question the need for funding all those U.S. troops on its soil. Yes, Japan pays the lion's share of the cost of keeping the U.S. military there.

US troops on Japanese soil is the cost of the US nuclear umbrella. If they're not there, Japan will never really know if that umbrella extends to them. Without the nuclear umbrella, confrontations with the Chinese over intrusions by Chinese ships becomes a lot trickier. (Unless by a real military, gromky is including the nuclear triad).

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-12-13 12:26:18 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2004-12-13 12:26:18 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 My guess would be that Japan could be a nuclear power in six months from the go signal. They're one of the few countries with the tech but not the materials. And I suspect they would be able to buy the materials in a heartbeat.

Posted by Chuck Simmins 2004-12-13 12:32:34 PM|| [http://blog.simmins.org] 2004-12-13 12:32:34 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 CS: My guess would be that Japan could be a nuclear power in six months from the go signal. They're one of the few countries with the tech but not the materials. And I suspect they would be able to buy the materials in a heartbeat.

I think delivery is a bit more of a problem. Even if Japan goes nuclear, developing the triad (air - ALCM's, sea - SLBM's, land - ICBM's) of delivery vehicles is going to take time.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-12-13 12:38:45 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2004-12-13 12:38:45 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 This is the inevitable result of the North Korean situation. The US has been warning China that eventually Japan would rearm to defend herself and apparantly the Chinese called, and are now finding out the west isn't bluffing.

The genie is much harder to get back into the bottle. I suspect China will work dilligently to resolve the North Korea issue in the coming months (assuming the North Korean leader isn't dead).

Posted by rjschwarz 2004-12-13 12:46:45 PM|| [http://rjschwarz.typepad.com] 2004-12-13 12:46:45 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 You bring up an interesting point, rjs - Kimmie's demise - and that can be a whole range of possibilities from "heart attack" to dioxin poisoning to retirement.

A story I saw last night sez that SKor is headed for recession... If Kimmie falls, who will pick up the pieces / feed the masses, etc.? SKor looks unlikely to be able to help much - besides, if they were smart they would learn a lesson or three from Germany's re-unification debacle. China? What an interesting dent (dip) that would make in their growth charts. The US? Phat phucking chance.

Those with hardcore knowledge of the China / NorK minutia should spend a minute playing this out and let us know what they think is likely and the fallout it will produce. I haven't seen anyone actually address the issue - and it is coming soon, IMHO.

Posted by .com 2004-12-13 12:57:12 PM|| 2004-12-13 12:57:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 Within minutes of Kimmie's retirement he would cease breathing. This may indeed already have happened -- he's been out of sight for a long time, relatively speaking.

As for his people, their only first need is rice and multi-vitamins. Lots of rice and multi-vitamins. Follow that with seed, and the entire nation will be occupied with farming for the next five years. Only once they trust that they'll no longer need to keep a reserve of babies and old folks for the larder, will the North Korean economy need to take the next step: formation of an industrial sector to employ the excess population.

In my humble opinion, of course. ;-)

Posted by trailing wife 2004-12-13 1:33:30 PM|| 2004-12-13 1:33:30 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 .com, beware the conventional wisdom. Even though I've seen first hand how infrastructure goes to sh** in communist countries and consequently have some appreciation of how much it will cost to fix, at the same time I don't think NKor will be another EGermany. Give them capitalism, access to know how, not a lot of capital and markets and they will fix it themselves.

Posted by phil_b 2004-12-13 4:58:16 PM|| 2004-12-13 4:58:16 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 phil_b, you may be correct, but my understanding is the Norks are going to take a long time to readjust to the real world, a lot longer than the East Germans.

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-12-13 5:02:53 PM|| 2004-12-13 5:02:53 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 Yep. Civil society has been destroyed in N. Korea. 3 generations to rebuild?

Posted by Shipman 2004-12-13 5:19:31 PM|| 2004-12-13 5:19:31 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 Shipman, its only been 2 generations since the Korean war after which SKor was a wrecked agrarian society. Now they are beating the Japanese at their own game. The only world the NKors need to adjust to is the Skors and that will happen quickly - just a few years.

Posted by phil_b 2004-12-13 6:15:51 PM|| 2004-12-13 6:15:51 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 I don't think the Korean(ness) of S. Korea was destroyed during the war... I think the Korean(ness) of N Korea may have been destroyed over the past 50 years. Hope to be wrong. Always funny, what the the Korean call the Japaneese (when colonial masters) The Lazy People.

Posted by Shipman 2004-12-13 6:35:44 PM|| 2004-12-13 6:35:44 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 Its been remarked the only country in the world there are no chinatowns is Korea, becuase the chinese can't make money there (i.e. the Koreans are better at it)

Posted by phil_b 2004-12-13 6:46:29 PM|| 2004-12-13 6:46:29 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 Phil_b, you are seriously underestimating the hell hole NorK has become. With as many reports of starvation and cannabalism as we are getting I suspect we will find an entire country that resembles Dachau more than post-communist Albania.

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-12-13 6:56:08 PM|| 2004-12-13 6:56:08 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 Stalinist regimes that eradicate civil society poison those societies for generations. If Russia has lost a generation, and it has, then NKor will lose at least two generations.

Posted by lex 2004-12-13 6:58:55 PM|| 2004-12-13 6:58:55 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 phil_b: Its been remarked the only country in the world there are no chinatowns is Korea, becuase the chinese can't make money there (i.e. the Koreans are better at it)

Actually, there are Chinese sections in Korean cities. But the ethnic Chinese population has tended to emigrate - typically to Hong Kong, Taiwan or the US - because until recently, they were barred from owning property in South Korea. As in Japan, discrimination against ethnic Chinese is extensive, leading many to attempt to mask their national origin.

Here's an excerpt from a State Department report:

The Republic of Korea is a racially homogeneous country with no ethnic minorities of significant number. Citizenship is based on blood, not location of birth, and Koreans must show as proof their family genealogy. Ethnic Chinese born and resident in Korea cannot obtain citizenship or become public servants and may have difficulty being hired by some major corporations. Due to legal as well as societal discrimination, many formerly resident ethnic Chinese have emigrated to other countries since the 1970's.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-12-13 7:12:26 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2004-12-13 7:12:26 PM|| Front Page Top