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2004-11-22 Iraq-Jordan

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Posted by Steve 2004-11-22 9:42:47 AM|| || Front Page|| [1 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Bingo. The situation isn't, as the MSM spin it, one of "chaos" caused by US "incompetence." It's the last gasp of the Sunni/Ba'athist elite before they become a minority player in a country dominated by the shi'a.

Posted by lex 2004-11-22 11:15:36 AM|| 2004-11-22 11:15:36 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 It may be their only remaining plausible goal. Once the game is really "on", their time ends. They can "get it" and participate and govern in those areas where they numerically dominate - or be permanently marginalized and, eventually, hunted down for their murderous and larcenous traditions. Choices. The one they want isn't on the list anymore.

Posted by .com 2004-11-22 11:17:31 AM|| 2004-11-22 11:17:31 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 The elections will be fatal to them. Out of 18 Iraqi provinces there are only 4 or so where violence will hinder elections, and all of those are Sunni-dominated. Which means that on February 1, the Iraqi National Assembly will consist of clear electoral winners who are not ~80% Shi'a or Kurd but 95% Shi'a or Kurd.

At some point ordinary, non-Ba'athist, non-jihadist sunnis will figure out that the greatest enemies of sunni empowerment in the new Iraqi reality are the sunni hard boyz themselves. What follows will be fun to watch.

Posted by lex 2004-11-22 11:24:42 AM|| 2004-11-22 11:24:42 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Possible sunnies are angling for that civil war now or a large sunni massacre in order to further regionalize the conflict by bringing SA and Syrian participation to a much larger degree.

Posted by Lucky 2004-11-22 5:34:25 PM|| 2004-11-22 5:34:25 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 It's too late, IMHO, Lucky. Their time for derailing anything has passed. They're holed up in small pockets in Anbar Province, mainly, and all they can create is a tempest in a teapot. On Jan 30th they'll manage to kill some people, and before then too, of course, but it won't be enough.

The Big Wheel started to turn, IMHO, when Allawi was selected as PM for the interim Gov't. He took awhile to get his sea legs, but he showed exactly the right stuff from post-Najaf on where I believe he began to seriously "get it". His statements about and backing for the Fallujah sweep were perfect and the jihadis don't have many places left they can run to and actually be effective. Hearing an Arab leader say "This is your last chance!" - and meaning it - was a real eye-opener for me, heh, and I'll bet it was UNbelievable to a shitload of Iraqis. Nope. Methinks the Fat Lady's warming up in the wings and soon the morons will have to play border games from Syria or Iran - until Teheran gets some deserved attention, that is...

Posted by .com 2004-11-22 5:53:14 PM|| 2004-11-22 5:53:14 PM|| Front Page Top

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