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2004-10-30 Africa: Subsaharan
Oil Rises on Concern Strike Will Disrupt Production in Nigeria
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Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-10-30 3:26:11 AM|| || Front Page|| [11128 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 ``Everybody’s just so nervous at this point with the Nigeria situation,’’ said Chris Ovrebo, a broker with FC Stone LLC in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.

Whoa whoa whoa, what happened to the cold winter "fears"?

Suggestion:

HOW ABOUT WAITING TO SEE WHAT TRANSPIRES BEFORE REACTING, YOU IDIOTS???
Posted by Bomb-a-rama 2004-10-30 3:34:40 AM||   2004-10-30 3:34:40 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Bomb, as one who knows a little about this, allow me to try and explain in layman's terms.
If the guys buying oil contracts wait and do nada and something does indeed happen this Sunday, in this case a national strike effecting global supplies of Nigeria's exported oil, some of the cleanest in the world by the way, those schnooks will lose out because they did not buy oil to climb in price on Friday in order to gain on Sunday night/Monday morning/afternoon.

Friday evening, all of Saturday & most of Sunday all oil markets are closed. If one was going to buy or sell they had to before the NY oil exchange closed, Friday afternoon.

On the other hand ,if the Nigerian national strike is cancelled, or placed on hold, prices should drop for a brief period the oil traders are still fine since the majority know price will be elevating higher due to the upcoming winter, terrorism or supply problems elsewhere in the world. Guys which had oil 'positions' to benefit from yet another drop in price would gain as well.

I hope this little overview helps.
Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-10-30 4:26:32 AM||   2004-10-30 4:26:32 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 So they are betting on a short,sharp spike in price to"seek profit".But if not,they won't lose if the hang on to the oil long enough.
Posted by raptor 2004-10-30 10:41:19 AM||   2004-10-30 10:41:19 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 That's my take raptor. Unless of course the winter turns out to be mild, in which case a smart player can still come out ahead by moving chocolate and cotton to Cairo.
Posted by Shipman 2004-10-30 11:06:38 AM||   2004-10-30 11:06:38 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 AlGore assures us that world temps will be uncommonly balmy in winter and broiling in summer...something about Kyoto and gaseous emissions (from him?)
Posted by Frank G  2004-10-30 11:16:44 AM||   2004-10-30 11:16:44 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 Raptor, Ship, You guys understand. My overview was dealing with the situation from yesterday (Fri) through Sunday night's trading & early Monday morning's, in case the threats of a shut down strike in the southern coastal oil producing Delta region inflict delays and shut down production along with exports.

Long term is the way to position in the energies until at least March/April. In if Osama loonies act up in Saudi Arabia MUCH higher prices in the energies will be in forcast. If crude dips toward $40 or, lower, going out 8 to 12 months for a 30% to 40% rise can not be ruled out.

Shell oil has ordered all employees to hit the road in Nigeria's Delta. It shall be an interesting rest of the weekend!

Like always, Happy Motoring!Compact
Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-10-30 3:47:00 PM||   2004-10-30 3:47:00 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 I still say chocolate covered cotton has a market.
But I'll trade lb for lb Tunisian eggs fob Taranto for beet futures, fob Tampa, storage per custom.
Posted by Shipman 2004-10-30 8:17:42 PM||   2004-10-30 8:17:42 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 I hope this little overview helps.

I see what you're getting at, but speaking as the simpleton schmuck on the street that I am, what's maddening is the situation as a whole. All sorts of reasons are peddled for all this volatility as of late wrt oil prices; during last winter, various news pieces talked about a price rise when the summer driving season gets under way. Then when Iraqi rebels blow up oil pipelines, even though Iraq's output is only a fraction of what it used to be, the market starts going wacko. Add in the occasional talk of low inventories (which I as the Street Schmuck have to take people's word on it, since I can't reliably verify stock), "fears" of terrorism, "concerns" about supply, and a colder-than-normal winter coming up (which isn't exactly a given). And to top it all off, when some perceived "problem" crops up, the price of gas spikes up immediately, yet when the perceived crisis subsides, the price of gas drops at an extremely leisurely pace, to say the least. Hearing, reading, and watching all this crap is just irritating beyond belief.
Posted by Bomb-a-rama 2004-10-30 9:11:35 PM||   2004-10-30 9:11:35 PM|| Front Page Top

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