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2004-06-22 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
AEI: U.S. Policy Adrift on Rogue State - Iran
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Posted by Super Hose 2004-06-22 12:52:03 AM|| || Front Page|| [11135 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 Here is an illustration: Powell Hints at Sanctions for Iran. Why would we be hinting?
Posted by Super Hose 2004-06-22 1:32:25 AM||   2004-06-22 1:32:25 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Only a matter of time now. When those strategically place seismic detectors go off from the Iranians first 'yield' test, Israel will crap in their pants: and the US will go nuts with "what to do next". My advice is to give the proverbial 'Green Light' to Sharon to 'neutralize' the situation, and be ready, hell or high water to back him up, if need be. Only allow one retaliatory strike from Iran!!!
Posted by smn  2004-06-22 2:27:38 AM||   2004-06-22 2:27:38 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Let's not do anything rash until the suicide bombers get underway. Don't let Specter go out alone with the Iranian for a liquid lunch. And tell Armitage to keep his pie hole closed.
Posted by Capt America  2004-06-22 2:39:56 AM|| [http://captamerica.blogspot.com/]  2004-06-22 2:39:56 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Referring to the last part of the original: The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

Faster, please.
Posted by Michael  2004-06-22 9:29:54 AM||   2004-06-22 9:29:54 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 It's always fascinating to hear the deep thoughts of pure voyeurs as they glibly critique those who must actually accomplish things and will be held accountable to those who appointed them.
Posted by .com 2004-06-22 10:23:46 AM||   2004-06-22 10:23:46 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 .com, does this mean that you support dialogue with Iran even though the mullahs, and North Korea alike, have consistently used such time consuming diplomatic exchanges as a fig leaf for prolonged stalling while they fabricate nuclear weapons?

Iran's Islamic government has displayed absolutely nothing but bad faith in all of their dealings with the outside world. Their domestic policies are an even greater trainwreck of human rights violations and financing international terrorist groups.

Aside from direct military intervention, what other modes of defusing their headlong rush towards nuclear armaments exist? While enticing, covert support for an internal rebellion may not achieve success within the limited timeframe required to ensure that Iran does not fabricate any nuclear devices.
Posted by Zenster 2004-06-22 11:29:06 AM||   2004-06-22 11:29:06 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 Who are the voyeurs, .com?
Posted by Michael  2004-06-22 1:55:25 PM||   2004-06-22 1:55:25 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 We all are, Michael, to some degree. But my favorites are those glibly calling for military action and bashing Bush because he can't microwave this problem - without taking into account that little thing known as reality - and in particular, the disingenuous among us.

I am no fan of the Black Hats / Mad Mullahs. I have been an advocate of decapitating that regime, posted numerous times here on RB over the last 18+ months, because they have made the cassis belli for us, IMO. Rafsanjani and Khomeini have both made proclamations regards what they will do with it as soon as they get their hands on a missile, guidance, and nuke pkg: wipe out Israel. Recall "tick... tock.." posts.

Evolving simultaneously over this period from when the Iranians started making these statements, upgraded their Shahad-3 (into a Shahad-4, actually with the req'd range, via NorK), received significant assistance from Russia overtly on Nuke Plants and older centrifuges, and even more covertly from Pakistan (nuke tech, incl design plans for P2 centrifuges), other reality factors have risen which deserve prominent billing on the program...

Were the US not so bitterly divided by hate politics, and were this not an election year, the probability of military action, sooner rather than later, would be dramatically higher. Because of domestic politics, we sit here on our hands waiting for November.

Those who demand action now, remarkably, include people who contribute to the fact that Bush's hands are tied by domestic politics.

Consider, if you will, the damned-if-you-do and damned-if-you-don't position he is in. The Hue & Cry™ should he opt for either the short-term objective, to try to destroy the nuke production facilities, much less the long-term objective of regime change, would undoubtedly result in a screech level we haven't seen in the US since Lincoln's re-election campaign. Impeachment bills would be as common as the LLL articles we comment on here in RB.

My point is that, since we are not anywhere near all on the same page, pulling together to fight the WoT in all its manifestations, and the Iranian Mad Mullahs getting their hands on deliverable nukes qualifies in my eyes, much of the hawkish stuff posted is moot - and total bullshit when posted by those who are party to the division and bitterness.
Posted by .com 2004-06-22 2:25:43 PM||   2004-06-22 2:25:43 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 Well put .com. You have it.
Posted by Yosemite Sam 2004-06-22 2:42:11 PM||   2004-06-22 2:42:11 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 Hey, YS - :)

Y'know, I was wondering... If it had been 8 US sailors nabbed by Iran, do you think that would make any difference? The bile factor would double hereabouts, but Bush would be in the same spot Blair's in: public support so bitterly divided that any action would result in cries of too much! too little! and inappropriate response! (from those who weren't sure but hate Blair so they swing for the fence anyway).

Truly sad that our fifth column is fat and thick with looney groups of every stripe and publicized with sober-sounding supportive editorial agendas across the majority of MSM. It just boggles.
Posted by .com 2004-06-22 3:16:12 PM||   2004-06-22 3:16:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 .com, why do you think we haven't seen action by Israel by now? The mullahs getting nukes is bad for us, but death for Israel.
Posted by Matt 2004-06-22 3:31:21 PM||   2004-06-22 3:31:21 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 Because they're not "there" yet... I would wager that intelligence on Iran is quite good, especially relative to other ME countries. Though I saw Zenster disparage it here yesterday or today as, apparently, less reliable than published reports (no I didn't save the link), I believe that humint and first-hand (or second-hand intel from a trusted source) is the most valuable kind.

You're right - for Israel it's life and death - and if they thought the Black Hats were ready to follow through on their threats - I am certain that they would execute a strike plan. I'm sure they would hope for assistance from us (refueling or whatever their plans call for), but even if a one-way trip I have no doubt that pilots would line up to volunteer. Unless, that is, they have some means other than a mud-mover mission with piloted aircraft. Every day in Israel is potentially the last, thanks to Islam.
Posted by .com 2004-06-22 3:41:09 PM||   2004-06-22 3:41:09 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 .com, you're right about the humint being the best; one of the biggest mistakes the CIA has made (not sure when, not as up on the history of the agency as I'd like to be, but probably starting in the '80s) was to downsize manpower in favor of automated methods. Satellites and listening stations are good for some things, but they can't - and never will - replace a keen eye and a good ear and a disillusioned man willing to talk.
Posted by The Doctor 2004-06-22 3:44:13 PM||   2004-06-22 3:44:13 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 Thanks for the very nice thread. I do disagree with .com a little. More than a year ago I wrote to all my congress people as to the advisability of a short, sharp military action against the Iranian Nuclear facilities...to even holding the ground for a week or so to ensure that the destruction was complete.

However, this would have to be accompanied by sincere, very public apologies, over and over, for what was done. But also made clear that it would be done again, in any other country, if necessary.

Sorry, so sorry, and with some compensation for the Iranian families of those killed.

My approach.

Best Wishes,

Traveller
Posted by Traveller 2004-06-22 11:01:54 PM||   2004-06-22 11:01:54 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 Trav - And your thoughts today are the same: hit the nuke facilities only, leaving the Khomeini regime in place?
Posted by .com 2004-06-22 11:11:47 PM|| [http://www.amble.com/images/US-apologies.jpg]  2004-06-22 11:11:47 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 Unless, that is, they have some means other than a mud-mover mission with piloted aircraft.

Subs? They must have a few.
Posted by Rafael 2004-06-22 11:18:28 PM||   2004-06-22 11:18:28 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 
Dearest Mr. Dot and Mr. Com...lol

Alas, work is only allowing me breif moments here, (fortunantly, I like very much what I do), but you mentioned the other day, "a bumpy ride ahead..."

Little did we know. The killing of the Korean today affected me much more than Nick Berg or that of Mr. Johnson. For whatever reason, his taped plea for life, really got to me...(I am so affected I can't talk about it).

Then there was the capture of the British sailors, and Prince Abdullah's comment re the Jews again...all I can say, over and over, is WTF?

And what the F*** was the Korean doing in Fallujah? The mind boggles....I hope that the news reports were just in error and that he was well outside the city when captured.

Reagardless, as Cato the Elder would say at the opening of every Senate session, "Carthage must be destroyed!" So I am coming to the believe that Fallujah, and all of it, must be destroyed.

But with apologies...Sorry, but we are going to squeeze Fallujah dry...within three days, everyone with a gun will be killed. Very simple, and we are sorry...really. But it will be done.

As to the Black Turbans? Shit, there has been floated the idea of a strike on the Revolutionaly Council when sitting in full session, followed by the occupation the nuclear facilities.

But to assassinate an entire government?

Sigh...I'm just not there yet.

Real Best Wishes to you Mr. Com
Posted by Traveller 2004-06-22 11:35:46 PM||   2004-06-22 11:35:46 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 Traveller - I hear what you say about the Skor - I hit the mute when they played his screaming pleas. I'm sorry, but there's just no way I could ever give them such satisfaction - the hatred would give bravado, false or not. His death was foreordained, of course, regardless of the dance. Much less dangerous for them to kill him - within hours - all they need to do the tape the scripted garbage they pre-planned.

The FoxNews people say that Al Zarqawi claims to have 10 more hostages - and it seems there are, indeed, at least that many more missing non-terrorist types. Expect the worst, you won't be disappointed.

Re: Iran. Anything less than regime change is a replay of Gulf War I, IMHO. We'll be back in 3, 5, 8 yrs to do it all over again, complete with the sniping and back-biting regards not doing it when all the men & materiel were in place -- plus the loss of any possibility of surprise. There was a thread here a few days ago where I attempted to enlist some input on what to do with Iran. This is the link. It didn't work out that any assistance was forthcoming, unless political diatribe would scare them into running away, but you prolly recall some posts I made back upon a time. You know how much I loves the Black Hats!

Anyway, Comment #18 is where I take a shot at a first-pass analysis, logic, and choose an option and outline some action. You might be interested in helping me with it, should my logic about Gulf War I ring true to you. If not, well, it was worth a shot!

Grins & Best Regs!
Posted by .com 2004-06-22 11:53:47 PM|| [http://www.amble.com/images/til_pray.jpg]  2004-06-22 11:53:47 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 Sorry, .com, but I disagree with your censure of "voyeurs" as you refer to critics of President Bush's PC view of curing the Arab world of terrorist predilictions by offering the ME a taste of democracy.

Of course, the country is divided, and why is that not legitimate? Not all of us believe as George Bush believes that the answer to combating terrorism is to offer Muslims democracy...of course, a few thousand American GI's have to be lost in the course of this wild experiment and then there is also the matter of $87 billion dollars...no worries...all religions, all cultures, all races are on the same footing when it comes to valuing democracy over monotheism...you don't think this innocent wild eyed theory deserves to be criticized?

We cannot do a single thing about Iranian or North Korean transgressions against coalition countries -we need to swallow everything either country shoves in our faces because the world's policeman is over extending giving an IV of democracy to ungrateful Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq and the other Western nations are busy debating the vitues of same sex marriage and socialized medicine blah, blah. We should all get accustomed to the taste of humble pie because there is more where this is coming from...
Posted by rex 2004-06-23 12:13:50 AM||   2004-06-23 12:13:50 AM|| Front Page Top

#20 Aw shit. 3 minutes. That's it? A summary rejection? No real-world analysis of the situation, no working through what's actually possible - instead of what would make you personally feel better? Just a rehash of your personal vanity view - certainly sans substance?

Was that just too much for you to read? Or was it the "comprehension" part that was too much of a strain... I see you spent 3 WHOLE MINUTES on it... and obviously much of that typing your regurgitated opinion. Excellent job. Thanks so much. I'll know better than to ask you again for your thoughts - you've got 'em already pre-digested and hot-keyed as AP remarked elsewhere.

Is there a virus going around? I've read 300-400 posts just like this over the last 3 or 4 months. All hot 'n bothered and full of invective and dire threats and and and fucking NOTHING of substance. NOTHING constructive. NOTHING actionable. NOTHING noteworthy. NOTHING new.

So RB is actually now a therapy site. Fred should be charging by the hour - it would be damned profitable. I hope you feel better. Funny, these posts ("I want action and I want it NOW!" and "Bush should be doing this!" and "Bush should be saying that!" Blah Blah fucking Blah) sound just like a buncha Paleos seething. Just as effective and worthwhile, too.

Too bad you couldn't have engaged your brain and been constructive - within the confines of reality. That I would've liked to have read. So now I know where you fit into the strata.
Posted by .com 2004-06-23 12:44:28 AM|| [http://www.amble.com/images/til_pray.jpg]  2004-06-23 12:44:28 AM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Zenster 2004-06-22 4:31:19 PM||   2004-06-22 4:31:19 PM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Zenster 2004-06-22 4:31:19 PM||   2004-06-22 4:31:19 PM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Zenster 2004-06-22 4:42:42 PM||   2004-06-22 4:42:42 PM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Zenster 2004-06-22 4:42:42 PM||   2004-06-22 4:42:42 PM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Anonymous5329 2004-06-22 5:46:25 PM||   2004-06-22 5:46:25 PM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Zenster 2004-06-22 6:08:27 PM||   2004-06-22 6:08:27 PM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Zenster 2004-06-22 6:08:27 PM||   2004-06-22 6:08:27 PM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Anonymous5329 2004-06-22 7:04:49 PM||   2004-06-22 7:04:49 PM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Anonymous5329 2004-06-22 7:04:49 PM||   2004-06-22 7:04:49 PM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Zenster 2004-06-23 3:39:23 AM||   2004-06-23 3:39:23 AM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Zenster 2004-06-23 3:39:23 AM||   2004-06-23 3:39:23 AM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Zenster 2004-06-23 3:39:53 AM||   2004-06-23 3:39:53 AM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Zenster 2004-06-23 3:39:53 AM||   2004-06-23 3:39:53 AM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Zenster 2004-06-23 1:17:09 PM||   2004-06-23 1:17:09 PM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Zenster 2004-06-23 1:17:09 PM||   2004-06-23 1:17:09 PM|| Front Page Top

13:17 Zenster
13:17 Zenster
03:39 Zenster
03:39 Zenster
03:39 Zenster
03:39 Zenster
19:04 Anonymous5329
19:04 Anonymous5329
18:08 Zenster
18:08 Zenster
17:46 Anonymous5329
17:46 Anonymous5329
16:42 Zenster
16:42 Zenster
16:31 Zenster
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12:32 Aris Katsaris
11:53 TheAZCowBoy
18:11 Free Will
08:00 Tim Blake
20:26 If not holier - smarter than thou
11:51 Lucky
09:11 Robert Crawford
02:51 rex









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