Article

2004-04-23 Iraq-Jordan

The Al Fallujah Cease-Fire and the Three-Way Game

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Posted by tipper 2004-04-23 2:34:34 AM|| || Front Page|| [11132 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Strafor covers all the bases. We're winning, losing, it's a tie, rainout.

Posted by Shipman 2004-04-23 8:17:21 AM|| 2004-04-23 8:17:21 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 I say we did it to strengthen the hand of the civilians.

Or show them how helpless they REALLY are.

Posted by Ptah 2004-04-23 8:58:31 AM|| [http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org] 2004-04-23 8:58:31 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Pfft. Stratfor proves once again that they can't tell their ass from a hole in the wall. I don't think they grasp the situation in Fallujah, and seem to believe that the negotiating powers in Fallujah are either a)defenseless or b)the insurgents. It's far simpler to conclude that the people who are negotiating are tribal sheikhs with only glancing relations with the intransigent elements. They probably control some local gunmen - but I'm willing to bet that there are a half-dozen to a dozen different armed factions in Fallujah, including al Queda cells, tribal gangs, non-tribal criminal gangs, non-al Queda foreign adventurers, non-al Queda Iraqi adventurers, and a good number of well-armed individual lunatics or small affinity-groupings. It's my guess that the negotiators represent, at best, the tribal gangs. The Coalition negotiators are looking to split off the tribal gangs from the other elements, in an attempt to divide-and-conquer.

They appear to be setting themselves up for a honeypot defense - holding defensive positions which have been attracting the negative attentions of the enthusiasts, and killing them. The ongoing negotiations are in this sense political cover, and at the same time, psyops. The ongoing slaughter can be characterized in the press as self-defense, while offering the impression of weakness. Weakness attracts further macho-blinkered victims, who are eliminated. Essentially, they've turned the area around the marine positions into killing grounds, and the reputation they've gotten for civilian killing keeps the civilians away from their positions. As always, the problem isn't in Fallujah - they've gotten in there, and nothing in the city will crowbar them out. The problem is the supply lines elsewhere in Baghdad and the Triangle, and the West. The vast number of coalition fatalities and casualties are coming on the lines of communication, especially the roads between Fallujah and Baghdad.

As for Stratfor's al Sistani fixation, I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt and write it up as a minor cult of personality issue. They act as if al Sistani and al Sadr are the only players in the Shia corner. I count at least five other players in that corner - the al-Dawa people, one or more sets of Iranian puppetmasters, the imams' union, the local tribal sheikhs of al Kut and elsewhere, and what I suspect is a bloodied, very pissed-off, still very well-armed SCIRI.

Posted by Mitch H. 2004-04-23 10:02:33 AM|| [http://blogfonte.blogspot.com/] 2004-04-23 10:02:33 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 i think they exagerrate the degree to which the civilian leadership in Falujah = the guerillas. Their basis is that the guerillas didnt kill the civilian leadership - really the guerillas dont want the Tribal and other leaders turning on them. ISTM that the "civilian" leaders are more like neutrals, or leaning toward the guerillas, but are not negotiating on their behalf. The US chose to negotiate with them NOT because they represent the guerillas and the US wants to avoid urban warfare - but to assuage Iraqi politicians in general, and the Sunni Arabs among them in particular. The OVERALL Stratfor point - that taking a hardline on the Sunnis makes the US captive to Sistani, and that some outreach to the Sunnis is necessary to balance Sistani - seems reasonable, and todays announcement of more jobs for low level ex-Baathists, etc fits into that. But I also think the US is still trying to seperate the tribal and professional elements among the Sunni, if not the clerical, from the insurgents. That would better explain why the ceasefire is failing, and why the USMC seems eager to take advantage of every insurgent violation to eliminate as many insurgents as possible.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-04-23 10:15:28 AM|| 2004-04-23 10:15:28 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 " I count at least five other players in that corner - the al-Dawa people, one or more sets of Iranian puppetmasters, the imams' union, the local tribal sheikhs of al Kut and elsewhere, and what I suspect is a bloodied, very pissed-off, still very well-armed SCIRI."
At this point SCIRI, Dawa, and the lesser Shiite imams all seem to defer to Sistani, to a greater or lesser extent. The Shia tribal sheiks may be an alternative power structure, but its not clear that theyre as strong as the Sunni sheiks - remember the whole point of being a sheik was largely to funnel goodies from the central govt to the locals, and from the Ottomans on that meant largely Sunnis. Especially under Saddams most goodies went to the Sunnis, giving Sunni sheiks a larger role - and whatever Shia sheiks did work with the govt thereby lost legitimacy among the Shia. THATS why the clerics have disproportionate influence among the Shia. As for the Iranians, they HAVE to work through somebody. Sadr is pretty much a dead end (or at least so it would appear) so to the extent that the other elements defer to Sistani, Sistani has the Iranians over a barrel as well.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-04-23 10:24:03 AM|| 2004-04-23 10:24:03 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 I think US Psyops have been a failure in Iraq. Where are the Islamic voices calling out that the resisters are fighting against the will of Allah and thus failing so miserably? Call that out everytime they have their call to prayer, and then call it out a few times in between to make sure the message gets through. Add that the 72 houri's are not available for those that go against Allahs' will. Hammer it home.

Or how about spreading the "fact" that most RPGs or AK-47s are packed in Pigs grease for shipment. Kind of the reverse Sepoy mutiny game.

Posted by ruprecht 2004-04-23 10:54:06 AM|| 2004-04-23 10:54:06 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 Hmmm... How about this -

Announcement from the USMC:

"All non-terrorist civilians have 24 hours to clear out of the city of Al Fallujah, after which it will be cleared by force and/or destroyed outright. Terrorists are encouraged to stay in place."

Posted by mojo 2004-04-23 11:09:21 AM|| 2004-04-23 11:09:21 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 I stopped reading Stratfor when they started talking about a secret US/Iranian alliance. They are no better than Debka, but at least Debka is entertaining.

Posted by 11A5S 2004-04-23 1:08:50 PM|| 2004-04-23 1:08:50 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 Or how about spreading the "fact" that most RPGs or AK-47s are packed in Pigs grease for shipment.

Actually, you'd find that most jihadis would care less. That these guys are religious fanatics is in reality propaganda; it's something for public consumption. They only worship one thing: the AK47 and RPG.

Posted by Rafael 2004-04-23 4:09:23 PM|| 2004-04-23 4:09:23 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 Stratfor had a good war in Kosovo. It's been downhill since.

Posted by Classical_Liberal 2004-04-23 5:07:46 PM|| 2004-04-23 5:07:46 PM|| Front Page Top

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