Article

2003-07-20 Korea

NKorea Said to Deploy Artillery, Missiles

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Posted by Steve White 2003-07-20 12:13:19 AM|| || Front Page|| [3 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 If the South Koreans won't protect themselves why should the USA? What does the USA need w/ South Korea? Another slap in the face?

Posted by tim 2003-7-20 12:24:26 AM|| 2003-7-20 12:24:26 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 The NorKs are always playing chicken. One day they will lob some shells south by accident or design, and then they will become a glowing hole. While on their way to hell, they will take many with them, but in the end they will still be in hell. If the SKors start more appeasement, we need to pull out.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2003-7-20 12:46:55 AM|| 2003-7-20 12:46:55 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 To keep the insane NorK babble in perspective, here are a few excerpts from the StatFor Geopolitical Diary: Wednesday, July 16, 2003:

"To begin with, having plutonium does not mean the North Koreans can make a weapon, and making a weapon doesn't mean they will have a deliverable weapon. Having a deliverable weapon doesn't mean they will want to deliver it, or that the United States will give them the chance to think about it."
and
"For the North Koreans, their nuclear capabilities -- real, potential or fabled -- represent bargaining chips in negotiating processes with the United States. If they really intended to carry out a nuclear strike and were concerned that the United States would launch a pre-emptive strike -- which they should be -- then the last thing they would do is let U.S. officials know they had plutonium. It would be the most important secret, because they would want every edge for striking without being detected and pre-empted. Telling the United States they are thinking about nuclear war is the dumbest thing they could do if that was their actual plan. If, on the other hand, they simply wanted to scare the pants off the United States, Japan and South Korea, they'd make absolutely certain those countries knew they were planning to build nuclear missiles. When you think about this as a game, a real war plan requires secrecy; a negotiating ploy requires publicity."
and
"There is one scenario in which North Koreans would use these weapons -- if they collectively are insane; individual insanity wouldn't do it. But there is no evidence of insanity in North Korea -- merely interesting neurosis. The North Koreans have been using the nuclear threat for years in efforts to extract concessions from the West. They have an entire business model built on this."
and conclusion...
"The North Koreans, whose actual weight in the international system is somewhere around Chad's, actually have maneuvered themselves into the great power game, with world leaders speculating on their next move."

Posted by PD 2003-7-20 1:55:14 AM|| 2003-7-20 1:55:14 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 PD: VEry good analysis.

Have noted that the NK is all but begging us to attack Pyongyang. They seem a might upset that we have NOT launched a pre-emptive strike against them, to start the war. They seem desperate for a war, and with their economy in the toilet, assuming they have toilets in NK, it makes a twisted kind of sense.

SK is getting really worried it looks like. They seem to think we are willing to abandon them. Hmmm.... They have made it known they do not want us there.

Posted by Be 2003-7-20 3:48:53 AM|| 2003-7-20 3:48:53 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 Be - I wish I had written it! I only have one quibble, and that's with the line:
"if they collectively are insane; individual insanity wouldn't do it"
We already know that "Dear Leader" is either insane or near enough as to make no odds. I only wonder about whether StratFor really believes that if Dear Leader ordered it, the NorK Militray Machine wouldn't follow through, though that seems to be the (unattributed) author's contention.

Posted by PD 2003-7-20 4:26:33 AM|| 2003-7-20 4:26:33 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 Prudence would dictate that if a known criminal says he has a gun in his pocket and he is going to kill you,then you have 2 choices run away or kill him first.
I favor option #2.
If you go with option #1 then you will just have to deal with him agin at a later date,agin with only 2 options on how to deal with him.

Posted by raptor 2003-7-20 7:29:10 AM|| 2003-7-20 7:29:10 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 raptor - the fact that he rants and raves, I think, is described just about right in the piece. I consider his official utterances as purest entertainment - worthy of a flatulence tax, in fact.

As long as he's posturing, the parents of this shitforbrains creation, China and Russia, should be held to account to change his diaper. We didn't create him or nuture him or support his corrupt little joke of a nation for 50 years - they did. We have large levers to use, if needed, to force them to wipe his nasty little ass. I believe we should do so. Unilateral talks is an absurdity equal to the plotline of The Mouse That Roared.

The fact that he might sell
the bullets (or the powder and lead) he's trying to make to some bad actor like the Black Hats of Iran, now that is worthy of the 3 different war plans that have recently been updated by the Pentagon. And if the Pakis have been peddling rocket technology to this little troll, as some evidence has detailed, well now, you've got a serious case for making at least two smoking holes.

Make it three if the Black Hats successfully cling to power long enough to throw the switch to start up a reactor. It would be sad, indeed, if we had to pre-empt the brave Iranian people in their laudable effort to free themselves - but self-preservation must come first.

Posted by PD 2003-7-20 9:24:10 AM|| 2003-7-20 9:24:10 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 This is what I can't figure. All that video of Kimmy and the boys review thousands of marching troops in the square in the capital. They pick a bright sunny day to do this, usually some calendar event celebrating Daddy's birthday. Like we couldn't pick this up by satellite reccon? And how quick could you place a good size nuke right in the middle of the bunch? Sure, we'll take a lot of heat, less than they would in an instant, but the problem is solved. Solve the problem or wait for something stupid which cost others their lives and in the end the result will be the same. Do ritualistic behaviors of cultures demand that thousand of innocent civilians be sacrificed before you kill the mad dog?

Posted by Don 2003-7-20 10:53:04 AM|| 2003-7-20 10:53:04 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 Don - Only an American would think this way... and I agree wholeheartedly with you - though I'd use a Daisy Cutter or MOAB, instead of a nuke.

Y'know we could explain the logic process, and what's behind it, until the end of time - and almost no one else (from any other society, that is) would be able to understand. But I get it - and you're right. I'm sure the "answer" to your question is "political coverage" - nothing more.

Why do we care? Why don't we go ahead and toss off the yoke of pretense and posturing (UN, etc.) that others now believe to be reality? Well, it's not quite ripe, yet, but I think we're headed toward that moment, dragged kicking and screaming by external events. I'd say that the Islamozoid problem will eventually be the catalyst that tips the majority to this conclusion.

Hey, everybody can mouth the nice socialist multilateralist words, but when the heat is on and it's you or your family on the line, then the words fall by the wayside and hard choices are made by gut reactions to the threats. Some will have the balls - and some won't. We'll survive because America doesn't yet castrate us as we grow up. And that is the internal threat we can't lose sight of, either.

Posted by PD 2003-7-20 11:31:36 AM|| 2003-7-20 11:31:36 AM|| Front Page Top

#10 In some ways, the US is a victim of its own success. Since 9-11 the government has been taking steps to systematically remove the terrorist threat and terrorist sympathizers. People working very hard and for long hours have rounded up suspects, done investigations, performed financial squeezes, boomed bad guys, and have gathered intelligence. In doing so we have undoubtedly prevented additional 9-11s. It is like preventative maintenance of infrastructure: how many catastrophies and injuries did we prevent today---not very glamerous. Now we are in the long haul, and since the left is so warm and fuzzy, safe and comfy, they are doing what they do best, and that is to tear down. That is the internal threat the PD so aptly points out. We can't go nuke NorK now, though in some ways we should. We need to take each situation and make lots of plans and select the one that will serve us best. Bush only has so many political chips so he must use them wisely. I am sure that he is working for a NorK implosion. If he cannot do that, then he will hang the Nork albatross on the neck of the Chicoms and SKor. Leadership during these times takes a strong constitution and a stout heart.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2003-7-20 1:54:08 PM|| 2003-7-20 1:54:08 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 I think PD's analysis is right about on target. The DPRK's talk is just that - talk. They are under the impression that by convincing the United States and its allies (in the case of South Korea, I use the term "ally" in its loosest sense) that Kim Jong-il is one crazy mo-fo, they can mask just how weak their hand really is. But there is way too much method to their madness to suggest insanity - the North Korean leadership is just willing to take risks that most national leaderships are unwilling to take. Besides, I pointed out somewhere else that the boyz up in Pyongyang read the American press like everyone else, and have therefore come to the conclusion that the Americans will cave before they do - just compare the editorial sections of the NYT and the Rodong Shinmun. PD is definately right about China - Great Powers have to keep their allies in line - even the loose cannon ones. Both the US and the Soviet Union did it during the Cold War (not always successfully, but the effort was there), and if China wants to be part of the Big Boy Club, it needs to behave like a Big Boy. Heck, the South Koreans tried to build nuclear weapons in the 1970s (and unlike the North Koreans, they actually needed them back then), and we put a stop to that (at the cost of possibly getting the SKor president killed). If China is unwilling to assume the diplomatic costs associated with arm-twisting Pyongyang, the United States shouldn't continue to shoulder the responsibility of keeping Japan and Taiwan out of the nuclear club. It's that simple.

Posted by The Marmot 2003-7-20 7:28:39 PM|| [http://marmot.blog-city.com] 2003-7-20 7:28:39 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 I think it would be accurate to say that Kim is a one-trick pony. It's a pretty good trick, but once you've seen it, well...

Posted by PD 2003-7-20 8:18:41 PM|| 2003-7-20 8:18:41 PM|| Front Page Top

08:41 raptor
08:18 Dar
02:11 parallaxview
23:07 Anonymous
22:19 Frank G
22:00 Anonymous
21:51 Anonymous
21:40 Zhang Fei
21:40 PD
21:21 PD
21:17 Lu Baihu
21:09 Frank G
21:03 Not Mike Moore
20:57 Not Mike Moore
20:44 PD
20:33 mojo
20:25 Dishman
20:25 Ernest Brown
20:24 Douglas De Bono
20:18 PD
19:57 PD
19:47 Anonymous
19:28 The Marmot
19:26 Steve