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2011-12-02 Home Front: Politix

Why U.S. Unemployment Numbers Can't Be Trusted

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Posted by tipper 2011-12-02 11:14|| || Front Page|| [2 views ] Top

#1 employment numbers come from the employer survey

unemployment percentage comes from the household survey

Many times these two surveys (both by the BLS) are inconsistent. That's the way surveys are.

The employer survey is closer to a good sample but it doesn't include self employed and small biz. Another problem with both surveys is figuring out what the seasonal adjustment should be. A third problem is the monthly migration of people between full employment, part time employment and non employment.

That is why a crucial comparison is to compare month in year x with the same month in year x-1. If you do that you see that employment has increased a bit and the unemployment rate has decreased a bit. Not a robust recovery or even an average one but still a recovery.

Posted by Lord Garth 2011-12-02 13:38|| 2011-12-02 13:38|| Front Page Top

#2 I'll believe in a 'recovery' when I see it. The original Great Depression stumbled along for years, then all the banks in the USA closed, and private ownership of gold was criminalized and upheld by the US Supreme Court.
My view of the future matches this, copied & pasted from Zerohedge: US data is showing only a temporary improvement with the forthcoming fiscal drag into next year likely to slow the economy to a practical standstill. Noting that 'The worst is ahead of us' he sees the implications of the hard-default he expects for Greece in early 2012 (that is not priced into the market) as very concerning with a cluster of defaults more than possible. Uncomfortably viewing the banking sector as a curse (and not a cure) for our problems, he sees the Japanese Zombie bank experience playing out which guarantees sustainable growth is not around the corner and suggests we would be far better off medium-term if bank defaults occurred and the painful medicine is taken now. The banking sector risks the threat of taking down governments...

Posted by Anguper Hupomosing9418 2011-12-02 14:28|| 2011-12-02 14:28|| Front Page Top

#3 You forgot the pic.

Posted by gorb 2011-12-02 15:03|| 2011-12-02 15:03|| Front Page Top

#4 The entrepreneurs are still out there. The problem is: lack of start-up, inventory and payroll loan capacity. And stock market players are scared to re-enter, given the general stagnation.

Posted by Clem Unort1053 2011-12-02 19:42|| 2011-12-02 19:42|| Front Page Top

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