Article

2003-12-03 East Asia

Chinese military ready for "necessary" casualties over Taiwan

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Steve White 2003-12-03 9:01:47 AM|| || Front Page|| [11130 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Getting all frothy at the mouth before the Olympics might make ~~Beijing's~~ Peking's Games look like the Moscow ~~Joke~~ Games. Tough shit, Wang Chung DimBulb. You people only want Taiwan because it's another glittering jewel compared to the fucking lump of coal Mainland. Hands off and Fuck off.

Posted by .com 2003-12-3 10:05:40 AM|| 2003-12-3 10:05:40 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 They want Taiwan, let them try. We'll sink the troop ships before they even get to Taiwan.

Posted by Charles 2003-12-3 10:08:01 AM|| 2003-12-3 10:08:01 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 lame story

Posted by Yosemite Sam 2003-12-3 10:24:31 AM|| 2003-12-3 10:24:31 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 When poking a caged tiger with a stick, it is best to use a stick that is .44 calibre...

Posted by snellenr 2003-12-3 10:36:38 AM|| 2003-12-3 10:36:38 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 The only way the PRC could totally "take" Taiwan would also result in the total destruction of the Taiwanese economy. At the same time, Taiwan has the capability to inflict considerable, lasting damage to the economy of the PRC. Since the PRC is teetering on the brink of disaster at the moment, any move toward Taiwan would be suicide for both nations. Suicide is not a valid means to maintain a government.

Posted by Old Patriot 2003-12-3 11:03:27 AM|| [http://users.codenet.net/mweather/default.htm] 2003-12-3 11:03:27 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 "Plenty more where those grunts came from."

Posted by mojo 2003-12-3 11:04:17 AM|| 2003-12-3 11:04:17 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 China is not going to try a classic seaborne invasion of Taiwan -- they're not stupid.

I predict high levels of harassment of businesses and Taiwanese nationals in the mainland (and whatever else you can think of that comes under "Economic Blackmail"), long range missiles thrown near or even at Taiwan, and perhaps domestic sabotage/assassinations by Chinese agents in Taiwan.

Sooner or later world pressure will force Taiwan to back down.

Posted by Carl in N.H. 2003-12-3 11:33:37 AM|| 2003-12-3 11:33:37 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 "world pressure"
You actually mean collusion of the greedy tards who think, hope, pray that the mass markets of China will someday be able to afford their products - per yesterday's post and commentary - will lead to Taiwan doing... What, exactly?

Back down from their declaration of independence?

I can, indeed, picture the low-burn destabilization efforts. Is that all it will take? Subvert them and they eventually just cave in and rejoin the communists?

Is it pointless to defend Taiwan because, sooner or later, the ever-lasting Politburo of Commie Mainland will prevail?

Sigh.

Posted by .com 2003-12-3 11:50:45 AM|| 2003-12-3 11:50:45 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 You I wouldnât discount the rhetoric coming out of the P.R.C. They are falling by the wayside on the world scene and to have Taiwan declare independence might be the final straw. During the Korean war and the border disputes with Russia/Vietnam the PLA was more that willing to take heavy casualties. These would be casualty rates greater that 50%. They could take Taiwan by force of arms but they would pay a VERY heavy price. While the Chicoms have mass, Taiwan has technology. Even with the Clinton upgrades the mainland could never maintain air or sea superiority (loss of both would doom any invasion). They ONLY hope for the Chicoms is to take the island quickly and hope the U.N. would intervene before George sends in the troops. Make no mistake about that, he WILL send in the troops. The Chicoms do not want to face our Air Force and Navy not even on their best day. So when Bush is re-elected next year Taiwan will hold itâs referendum and that will be that.

Posted by Cyber Sarge (VRWC CA Chapter) 2003-12-3 12:11:11 PM|| 2003-12-3 12:11:11 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 Carl does have a point. Asymetrical warfare eh. Car bombings, assassinations. But two can play at that game.

Posted by Lucky 2003-12-3 12:12:32 PM|| 2003-12-3 12:12:32 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 This is the same rhetoric China has been spewing for the last 50 years. Move along people, nothing new to see here.

Posted by Yosemite Sam 2003-12-3 12:15:47 PM|| 2003-12-3 12:15:47 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 Sure, they have millions of troops they are willing to sacrifice in the name of 'International World Peace through Socialism'. But how do they plan to get those troops to Taiwan? Do they have enough heavy lift capacity cargo planes? More than Taiwan (not to mention the USNavy) can shoot down? Do they have more cargo ships than Taiwan (not to mention the USNavy) can sink in the straits?

The only thing the chicoms can do is nuke them. And then they'd get nuked right back. So what are they really doing? Trying to pile on while we're thinking about terrorists, to make us back down. This is just like Little Kimmie in NK, just without the hype. They try to bully and bluff, but they don't have the logistics to pull it off without sacrificing themselves, and don't think peking wouldn't be ground zero if they went nuclear on Taiwan.

Posted by millionmanarmy 2003-12-3 12:36:05 PM|| 2003-12-3 12:36:05 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 What I'd like to know is precisely what number is it that they consider "necessary"? How many of their countrymen are they willing to sacrifice? Thousands? Millions?

Posted by Bomb-a-rama 2003-12-3 12:44:09 PM|| 2003-12-3 12:44:09 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 When was the last time China won a major war? Or any war? When was the last time China successfully invaded another country? When did China ever attempt a sea born invasion? Has China's navy ever engaged in any kind on combat? Has the air force? Has even the army? (And running around like stooges in the late 1930's against the Japanese doesn't count.)

The fact is that they haven't. Aside from the Boxer Rebellion and loosing to a dozen Japanese army divisions, China has never fought a modern-day war (and by modern I mean a conflict using guns and not swords). Like Egypt, China is an international looser when it comes to armed conlict. Oh sure, it can pound its chest and make threats, but there is NO Chinese soldier who knows how to fight a war because no one there has never been IN a war. At least not one that they won on their own.

Perhaps they should keep this stellar history in mind when they go up against a determined Taiwan that is backed up by the greatest military force in history. Kind of puts that whole 4000 year old civilization thing into perspective, huh?

Posted by Matt D 2003-12-3 12:48:33 PM|| 2003-12-3 12:48:33 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 .com, since it wasn't clear in my comment #7, I totally agree with your frustrated cynicism.

And we (America and like-minded nations) should stand by Taiwan for all the right reasons.

That said, I do not expect to see any classic invasion response (actually, I would prefer that since it would militarily be the easiest to confront and defeat).

I get more worried about the various hellacious things they could do to Taiwan short of an all-out invasion, knowing that there is little spine left in the rest of the world to condemn China for doing those very things -- the ROW will rather pressure Taiwan to stop rocking the boat.

Sad.

Posted by Carl in N.H. 2003-12-3 1:17:29 PM|| 2003-12-3 1:17:29 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 The ChiComs can absorb Taiwan by close economic ties and sucking them in. It will take years, but they can do it. If they get too capitalistic, they may change radically too, but I would not count on it. It seems to me that the Taiwan issue is something they are beating a drum about to create an issue that could unite the country. The ChiComs are doing a long range plan with weapons modernization, providing front companies with stevedoring services at each end of the panama canal, cozying up to Castro and Chavez, as well as playing games with Kimmie and the NORKS.

I would not underestimate them and their capabilities to modernize, and I would not underestimate their capabilities to do something really stupid. They see us as preoccupied with the ME, and see this as a time of weakness for the US to be exploited. We must be vigilant!

Posted by Alaska Paul 2003-12-3 2:42:57 PM|| 2003-12-3 2:42:57 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 Matt, the PLA did fairly well against the Nationalist forces and not so badly against a badly positioned US force in Korea. In Korea they displayed a willingness to exchange infantry for firepower and pushed the 8th Army back to the 38th parallel. But without a land border the willingness to exchange at 15-1 counts for nothing.

Posted by Shipman 2003-12-3 3:36:11 PM|| 2003-12-3 3:36:11 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 Carl - Sorry, your point is well taken regards their subversion, bro - I didn't mean to leave myself unclear, either. You read me right too - I am just incredibly frustrated with how everybody seems to naturally kowtow to these cretins. Grrrrr.

What I hope for, of course, is that they change their spots before the morons go after Taiwan - that the whole mantle of communism is finally thrown off and, I hope, bloodily ground under the heels of the normal Chinese citizen.

The leadership seems to me both as ruthless and as naive as the Black Hats. Remarkable how isolation from the average citizen can lead to this bizarre condition, no? As long as we make our intentions crystal clear, and don't do the alligator crawl, we should be able to hold them at bay. That means electing leaders with gumption, of course.

Posted by .com 2003-12-3 4:17:19 PM|| 2003-12-3 4:17:19 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 .com and Carl, I think that the real question is whether the Taiwanese want to be free of the mainland. If they actually want to be free and are not just posturing for better terms, then how much are they willing to sacrifice for freedom.

Every country pays a blood price for freedom. The US paid a price for ours but some countries pays a higher price. The price that Cambodia paid is chilling to me. I admire the price that freedom seekering Czechs paid even in defeat. The Chinese people paid a terrible price in Tienimen Square, as well.

George Bush has committed the US to support the Taiwanese if they choose to be free from the Mainland. That is different from a commitment to defend Taiwan from the PRC. I think that is as nuanced as GW gets.

Posted by Super Hose 2003-12-3 5:32:07 PM|| 2003-12-3 5:32:07 PM|| Front Page Top

#20 "Unleash Chiang Kai-shek!"

__________________________oh for the good 'ol days of the 1950's sez borgboy...

Posted by borgboy 2003-12-3 6:30:53 PM|| 2003-12-3 6:30:53 PM|| Front Page Top

#21 I tend to agree with Yosemite Sam:
"This is the same rhetoric China has been spewing for the last 50 years. Move along people, nothing new to see here."

They're practicing psyops here. Trying to make Taiwan back down without them firing a shot. Sun Tzu was Chinese, after all, and it's not only us US 'warmongers' who study his wisdom.

Posted by Kathy K 2003-12-3 7:56:51 PM|| [site-essential.com/] 2003-12-3 7:56:51 PM|| Front Page Top

#22 Steven Den Beste just posted an interesting analysis of the China / Taiwan situation here.

Posted by A Jackson 2003-12-3 8:26:16 PM|| 2003-12-3 8:26:16 PM|| Front Page Top

#23 AJ, I find nothing in Mr. Den Beste's analysis that is wanting. Taiwan would certainly be attacked with missiles, which would kill a bunch of civilians. The PRC has no ability to invade the island. Taiwan can certainly remain free for as long as it's people are willing to make sacrifices to reamin so. We would probably have to suply them and buy everything they produce.

Eventually, Taiwan will have to have some type of relationship with the big land mass across the straits. With US support, Taiwan can pick the time and terms.

Posted by Super Hose 2003-12-3 9:21:28 PM|| 2003-12-3 9:21:28 PM|| Front Page Top

19:31 Pastor Lee Wasson
04:11 SK
00:37 CrazyFool
23:43 possecommietaters
23:19 whatmoderatemuslim
23:14 Robert Crawford
22:38 whydoessuhaliveinparis?
22:35 Hyper
22:29 Catfish N. Cod
22:28 Catfish N. Cod
22:08 Catfish N. Cod
22:01 Old Patriot
21:58 Catfish N. Cod
21:57 Super Hose
21:46 Catfish N. Cod
21:43 Super Hose
21:42 tu3031
21:41 Super Hose
21:25 Dan Darling
21:25 babsthelimousineliberal
21:24 Super Hose
21:22 john
21:21 Rawsnacks
21:21 Super Hose