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2020-10-09 Home Front: Politix

President Trump Is Outperforming His 2016 Polling in Swing States

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Posted by Besoeker 2020-10-09 00:55|| || Front Page|| [11 views ] Top

#1 Polls the ultimate fake news. When are the 'polling agencies' going to include the number of people reached and who hung up? If they have your phone number, they have your address.

Posted by Procopius2k 2020-10-09 07:28|| 2020-10-09 07:28|| Front Page Top

#2 When are the 'polling agencies' going to include the number of people reached and who hung up?

Also release details about their sampling methodology and compare their presumed D:R:Independent split to actual, up-to-date registration data. Plus the data showing their turnout assumptions for each demo.

These Potemkin polls are deliberately undersampling pro-Trump, high-turnout voters, just as they did in 2016.

Posted by Uleaper Thaick3705 2020-10-09 09:49|| 2020-10-09 09:49|| Front Page Top

#3 There are no honest polls. They are all push polls that will show a huge Dem lead until the day before the election. Then, suddenly, the Dem lead will disappear and the pollsters will use that number to show how accurate they were all along.

Posted by Iblis 2020-10-09 10:23|| 2020-10-09 10:23|| Front Page Top

#4 The best predictors are not BS polls with all their bias and sampling problems but actual elections - primaries and special elections - that happened earlier in the year. Sean Trende has been analyzing the data from Washington state's primaries since 2010 and found that it predicts about 90% of the November outcome.

Other political scientists have also analyzed actual primary results and have found the same thing: real election data is far more accurate than polling data.

This year's and 2018 data from primary elections predict a Trump victory in November. The polls are horseshit. Ignore them.

Posted by Zorba Cheatch3547 2020-10-09 11:15|| 2020-10-09 11:15|| Front Page Top

#5 I realize there are people who vote on the basis of "the last poll said," but not nearly as many as the media and pollsters would like to think.

Posted by M. Murcek 2020-10-09 12:17|| 2020-10-09 12:17|| Front Page Top

#6 I have serious doubts about a lot of those double digit polls that throw the average off. Biden might have a higher number than the despised Hillary, but will be surprised if the lack of enthusiasm for Biden translates into real votes Nov. 3rd.

Posted by DarthVader 2020-10-09 12:26|| 2020-10-09 12:26|| Front Page Top

#7 At least half of these polls oversample Democrats; it happened in 2016 and it's happening again. I'm just waiting for CNN, etc. to do the 'ol "call FL for the Dem by 7:00 PM so they can try to depress the Panhandle vote". They do that one every stinking fucking time so this is just part of that strategy - to demoralize us. Not gonna happen, Fredo Cuomo (not the homo)!

Posted by Raj 2020-10-09 14:24|| 2020-10-09 14:24|| Front Page Top

#8 My favorite recent poll was post Pence/Harris by USA Today who didn't even list Pence as a potential debate winner.

They must have thought themselves clever by listing The Fly as a winner, pulling in some 20% of the vote.

Perhaps they thought that clever too. For me, they show how poor Harris did.

Posted by swksvolFF 2020-10-09 22:00|| 2020-10-09 22:00|| Front Page Top

23:11 Clem
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