Article

2006-10-12 China-Japan-Koreas

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Posted by Steve White 2006-10-12 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11137 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Right now, there does not seem to be the political will to go nuke in Japan. However, there seems to be a big shift going on in Japanese public opinion about just how large and aggressive their Self-Defense forces should be. What I think is most likely to happen, is that Japan will start spending more on their military and adding in a variety of equipment to extend their reach. Harrier carriers/LHPs, more of their excellent diesel/electric subs, aerial refuel tankers, a much more robust ABM system with the new X-band radars, more Aegis-capable cruisers, and a lot more training with the US, Australia, and perhaps India would seem to be the most likely candidates for spending. Plus a large increase in their APCs and tanks for the land warfare component; also, a big increase in MLRS units.

Posted by Shieldwolf 2006-10-12 03:51|| 2006-10-12 03:51|| Front Page Top

#2 Sometimes it's better to keep one's mouth shut and be thought a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.

Kindly STFU, Condi. Bluff or no, we must begin to stare down our enemies. Tipping our hand does not one fuck's worth of good.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2006-10-12 03:52|| 2006-10-12 03:52|| Front Page Top

#3 Japan will do what is in Japan's interests. Japan would be foolish to rely on the USA for protection against N. Korea or Red China. Condi has become a disappointment.

My predictions: Japan and Taiwan will go nuclear in less than 12 months.

Posted by SR-71 2006-10-12 06:01|| 2006-10-12 06:01|| Front Page Top

#4 Now, now, gents - need another civics lesson? This is getting repetitious. Maybe there's something to this ADD stuff.

It's President Bush you're unhappy with. Once again, he's failed to move at the speed demanded here as well as failed to say the really brilliant pithy stuff, manly stuff, as we do here.

Civics Lesson. SecState: Condi is a chess piece. In her Black Boots I'd say she's prolly a Knight. She operates in the nicey-nice world of Diplofarts, where everything is, well, farcical. Bush would reel her in if she was off-base. You don't like her words or actions? Then you prolly don't like Diplofarts and you don't agree with Bush's strategy, cuz that's what she's pursuing within that bubble.

I'm just trying to help, in my short-tempered naturally belligerent sort of way. It's the kind o' guy I am, lol. So please forgive me - or if I'm wrong, please point it out and tell me to piss off. I can take it, I promise.

Otherwise, let's just admit that Bush isn't a clone of any of us, has to operate in a world which lacks MagIk WaNds - it's a reality thingy, and has a whole army of domestic enemies who parse every word from everyone in his administration looking for anything they can bash him with. Pretty much none of us would be elected to any office, given our comments here, doncha know. Except tw. She could get elected to almost anything she decided to pursue. But, in the classic irony of politics, she has far too much sense to mess with such lowlifes, lol. :-)

Posted by .com 2006-10-12 07:03|| 2006-10-12 07:03|| Front Page Top

#5 .com - You are partly right. I don't like diplomatic bloviating, but you are unfair to imply that I don't like or support the Prestdent.

Posted by SR-71 2006-10-12 07:14|| 2006-10-12 07:14|| Front Page Top

#6 The Japanese can pretty quickly change their minds about almost anything. This week they are not interested in nuclear arms, next week may bring something different. They know who holds the leash of little Kimmi. There is no love lost between Japan, China and Korea north or south. That is bad blood that is centuries old.

Condi is doing the diplomat thing as per her bosses instructions. A nuclear armed Japan might not be in our interests long term. Some of us have thought about that. A Japan with nuclear weapon is just as destablizing as Kimmi with nuclear weapons in some respects. Remeber the Japanese co-prosperity shere? China, Korea and most of SE Asia do.

Posted by Sock Puppet of Doom 2006-10-12 07:25|| www.sockpuppetofdoom.com]">[www.sockpuppetofdoom.com] 2006-10-12 07:25|| Front Page Top

#7 SR-71 - Unfair? Sheesh, bro. You object to Condi's deeds ("Condi has become a disappointment."). She's not running free - what she does is at the direction of the President. You cannot have it both ways. That's so crystal clear I'm perplexed by your response. I usually enjoy and agree with your comments - you've got a great direct cut to the bone gimme the facts style, too. But this is as plain as day: No likee Condi, then no likee Bush Foreign Policy moves. :-}

Posted by .com 2006-10-12 07:31|| 2006-10-12 07:31|| Front Page Top

#8 Crap, I should really check my spelling heheheh, can't blame my bad eye anymore.

Posted by Sock Puppet of Doom 2006-10-12 07:36|| www.sockpuppetofdoom.com]">[www.sockpuppetofdoom.com] 2006-10-12 07:36|| Front Page Top

#9 .com, piss off. I'm not sure we disagree, but I just couldn't turn down the invitation :-). Bush is now a lame duck. Everybody knows it. Short of a 5 seat gain in the Senate and a 20 seat gain in the House, he can't start anything now. But he is doing a good job of teeing up Iran for his successor and assuring that his successor will be a responsible trunk instead of a wacko donk.

Before he went into Iraq there were years of UN resolutions Saddam had violated while under a cease fire. But he still had to go for one last one, even after 9/11, before he could get the AfUoF over substantial domestic opposition.

Every President gets a foreign policy test early in his (her) administration. The next gut check is, I'd bet, May 2009 with Iran. Bush is laying the ground work by trying the multilateral jaw-jaw thang so that he can say, "See, it didn't work with this wacko Ahkmedinajihad. Got to whack him."

The good news about Kimmies duds, if they were, is that Iran may not be as close as we fear to nukes. If it were up to me, I wouldn't take the risk of waiting to find out, but that's not where the American people are. Remember even the Greatest Generation wouldn't go after Hitler until after Germany formally declared war on the U. S. If FDR couldn't get a war with Hitler even after Pearl Harbor, it's not surprising Bush can't get one with Ahkmedinajihad.

Patience is a virtue in that it helps keep the blood pressure down while innocent American lives are needlessly risked. But if that's what The People want, Bush has to do it. We elect a President with constitutional duties and limited powers, not a dictator who can do whatever he thinks best. And that's why if I were in the job, I'd end up doing the same thing Bush is and liking it about as much as I suspect he does.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-10-12 07:45|| 2006-10-12 07:45|| Front Page Top

#10 Lol, NS. I R Wounded, lol, but I asked for it.

Posted by .com 2006-10-12 07:59|| 2006-10-12 07:59|| Front Page Top

#11 Y'know, maybe we should make the Reality Check a standard here. Every time some hothead (like me) gets all Dire 'n Stuff, the question is posed:

Is there the public political will to do that?

Before you go and grouse that it sure would cut down on the fun 'n games, apply this little trick:
enclose rants in rant tags

I use 'em - or used to, anyway. Good habit. Clears up any confusion lickety-split. If the tags are there, well hell - fry 'em up! If they're missing, then get hinky with the poster if it fails the Reality Check, lol. Should cut down on the pointless repetition of Faux Direness that has become rampant here.

Whaddya think, Fred? (Man Law?) Lol.

Posted by .com 2006-10-12 08:10|| 2006-10-12 08:10|| Front Page Top

#12 At the risk of stating the obvious, the Japanese are not like us Westerners. It's nighwell impossible to get a Japanese to tell you what they really thinks about anything. Serve them dog food and they will praise its robust flavour. Hell, you could serve it out of the can and they would still say nice things about it.

But at the same time they have this capacity to collectively change much faster than us fractious Westerners (so I think). And it wouldn't surprise me if Japan decided to go nuclear in months under a formula like 'we are building the facilities, ready to be activated should the need arise.'

.com, welcome back. I won't ask where you've been, but I hope it was worthwhile.

Posted by phil_b 2006-10-12 08:58|| 2006-10-12 08:58|| Front Page Top

#13 Lol, phil_b. Thx, Bro. It was not as good as being here... :-)

Posted by .com 2006-10-12 09:04|| 2006-10-12 09:04|| Front Page Top

#14 Hardly your place to make such determinations, Missi my-mommy-couldn't-spell.

Posted by gromgoru 2006-10-12 10:40|| 2006-10-12 10:40|| Front Page Top

#15 Whatever else you might think of her, Condi is a lot easier on the eyes, ears, and psyche than Madeleine Albright.

Posted by RWV 2006-10-12 10:44|| 2006-10-12 10:44|| Front Page Top

#16 and for that matter, would make a better president than the front runners in either party.

Posted by RWV 2006-10-12 10:47|| 2006-10-12 10:47|| Front Page Top

#17 Remember guys, the State Department and their foggy bottomed idiots are used a lot by presidents to be the "Warm Fuzzy" in our tool chest. Watch what the NSA and military do in deployments and don't get sucked into the smoke screen the State Department is.

Watch the hand that is not moving in full view.

Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader 2006-10-12 11:03|| 2006-10-12 11:03|| Front Page Top

#18 .com, I'm with you. But once again, Bush is hampered by the leftist here and by the MSM. So will the next president, so I suggest he take out the MSM post haste. I don't mean kill them all, but he must bitch slap anyone of them who starts the blame game and the pro lefty editorals.
How ? I don't know, but it must be done so he can manuver withour constant criticism.
One is not a very convincing leader when there's a spear sticking in his back.

Posted by wxjames 2006-10-12 11:41|| 2006-10-12 11:41|| Front Page Top

#19 If the Japanese get nukes it'll sure put a damper on the ole' Hiroshima and Nagasaki annual mourning rituals where they get to bash the US for the evil of it's dirty nuclear weapons....

Posted by mcsegeek1 2006-10-12 11:53|| 2006-10-12 11:53|| Front Page Top

#20 or else what?

Posted by Japan 2006-10-12 11:53|| 2006-10-12 11:53|| Front Page Top

#21 saying she trusts Tokyo as a security partner.

Besides the point. The point is does Tokyo trust us as a security partner? My guess is that if a Democrat wins in '08 (or gets the house or senate in '06) there would be some doubt.

Posted by CrazyFool 2006-10-12 13:33|| 2006-10-12 13:33|| Front Page Top

#22 At the risk of stating the obvious, the Japanese are not like us Westerners. It's nighwell impossible to get a Japanese to tell you what they really thinks about anything. Serve them dog food and they will praise its robust flavour. Hell, you could serve it out of the can and they would still say nice things about it.

But at the same time they have this capacity to collectively change much faster than us fractious Westerners (so I think). And it wouldn't surprise me if Japan decided to go nuclear in months under a formula like 'we are building the facilities, ready to be activated should the need arise.'

That's an excellent assessment of the Japanese mindset, phil_b. I've dealt with Japanese customers and their overwhelming urge to be agreeable literally cripples meaningful dialogue.

An example; I've provided Japanese clients customer demonstrations of a large scale multi-chamber conveyer fed inert & reactive gas planar magnetron sputter deposition system that fills a large room. At every step of the way, through explanations about the load lock system, the logic state controller, the source target positions, the turbomolecular pumps, the infrared preheat chamber, the DC & RF power supplies, I would always ask for confirmation that they understood what had just been said and just as often got vigorous head nods and postive exclamations.

Once the demonstration was over, I'd double check with a simple elementary question about the machine's design or functional characteristics and always get a perfect "deer-in-the-headlights" look from all of them.

They were agreeing with me, not because they understood anything (at least anything that they wanted to admit to), but solely to be polite.

.com, you most definitely have misread my own meaning. I'm not overly displeased with the pace or directions of current policy. The critical position against bi-lateral negotiations is not being backed down on and that is important. Yes, I wish our actions were more forceful but I also recognize the limitations involved.

What I object to is how Rice's pronouncement came out, literally, within days of North Korea's possible nuclear test. Any good poker player knows to keep their hole cards hidden and Japan's potential crossover to a nuclear power certainly qualifies as that.

What would have been the harm of letting China and North Korea twist gently in the breeze for a week or two? It could have increased their caution and possibly dragged them forward into making some sort of concessions that might have benefited the situation. It certainly would have helped a lot more than promptly dismissing their combined greatest fear without the slightest reciprocation from them.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2006-10-12 14:10|| 2006-10-12 14:10|| Front Page Top

#23 When Japanese nod their heads or say Hai, it means I hear you, not I understand you. To get to an understanding, you have to ask a question requires an answer or, if they are in a volunteering mood, ask what they think.

Posted by ed 2006-10-12 14:30|| 2006-10-12 14:30|| Front Page Top

#24 Zenster, is that a vacume chamber sputterer ?

Posted by wxjames 2006-10-12 14:38|| 2006-10-12 14:38|| Front Page Top

#25 vacuum ?

Posted by wxjames 2006-10-12 14:40|| 2006-10-12 14:40|| Front Page Top

#26 Ah, yes, turbomolecular pumps.

Posted by wxjames 2006-10-12 14:43|| 2006-10-12 14:43|| Front Page Top

#27 Yes, indeed, wxjames. A Leybold-Heraeus Z600.Made of old Panzer armor plate, that monster was. During the 7.0 quake of 1989, a colleague who was in our lab swore that the thing didn't even move at all.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2006-10-12 15:07|| 2006-10-12 15:07|| Front Page Top

#28 Lens coating ? Microphone diaghrams ?

Posted by J.D. Lux 2006-10-12 15:16|| 2006-10-12 15:16|| Front Page Top

#29 Off Topic: To see what one of these monsters look like, please scroll down to the second item on the page at this link. I'd just about wager that they are selling the unit I used to operate.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2006-10-12 15:17|| 2006-10-12 15:17|| Front Page Top

#30 Off Topic: Rigid disk magnetic coatings (NiFe, CoCr plus graphite lube), thermal printer heads, SDI Star Wars laser optics, B-2 skin components, Euro Stealth Fighter skin sensor-emitters, first surface mirrors, optical coatings, superconductors and all sorts of other stuff.

I was the first person in the United States to deposit a magneto-optic erasable CD-ROM disk in a manufacturing scale system. The work would have been a lot more fun if it hadn't involved working with Germans. NIH (Not Invented Here) almost crippled their innovative drive. Namely, if it wasn't invented in Germany, it could not possibly be of any importance. A fine attitude to hold most places, but certainly not in Silicon Valley.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2006-10-12 15:26|| 2006-10-12 15:26|| Front Page Top

#31 This is a very interesting discussion, but how can "all options still be on the table" when W clearly said that we would not attack? One of those comments needs rewritten. Personally I think we missed the window of opportunity to do a low altitude fly by of B1s and B2s and deliver some of that ordanace that is approaching the end of its stable shelf life. And as far as the comments about NKor ships being disappeared at sea, well, kim-chee happens.......

Posted by USN, ret. 2006-10-12 15:28|| 2006-10-12 15:28|| Front Page Top

#32 Back on topic:

and for that matter, would make a better president than the front runners in either party.

There, I would agree with you, RWV. Condi outshines the vast majority of the current political crop. Is America ready for a black, woman, possibly gay President? Probably not for another 100 years, if ever.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2006-10-12 15:40|| 2006-10-12 15:40|| Front Page Top

#33 Personally I think we missed the window of opportunity to do a low altitude fly by of B1s and B2s and deliver some of that ordanace that is approaching the end of its stable shelf life.

That's my own read of the situation as well USN, Ret. but what's your take on all of those superannuated artillery emplacements that Kim supposedly has at the ready to pulverize Seoul with?

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2006-10-12 15:44|| 2006-10-12 15:44|| Front Page Top

#34 Gay? damn I'm always the last to find out.

Posted by 49 Pan">49 Pan 2006-10-12 15:46|| 2006-10-12 15:46|| Front Page Top

#35 #32 maybe not Zenster, but can you imagine the cacophany of LLL head detonations not just across America, but *anywhere* where statist, racist, leftist, victimologists congregate if she were elected?

As those adverts say ... priceless!

That's a pretty cool looking suit as well? (I can't believe I just made a comment on a womans business styling - more wine please)

Posted by Tony (UK) 2006-10-12 16:10|| 2006-10-12 16:10|| Front Page Top

#36 I agree, Tony. The liberals would howl about ... exactly what, again? The woman simply exudes grace and class on a par with her ample intelligence. Plus, she plays the cello and classical music, no less. Woman musicians always have a head start with me as it is.

As to her outfit, it looks like a cross between Star Trek and Chanel. I've got it! The Star Trek Chanel!

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2006-10-12 17:35|| 2006-10-12 17:35|| Front Page Top

#37 That's it, let's all kiss the ChiCom ass.

Posted by Captain America 2006-10-12 18:05|| 2006-10-12 18:05|| Front Page Top

#38 #36 - groan, don't give up the day job Zenster ;)

Posted by Tony (UK) 2006-10-12 18:16|| 2006-10-12 18:16|| Front Page Top

#39 Remember, Bush said he wouldn't attack, not that he wouldn't respond to what he considered an attack. We have a long history of not being the aggressor. We also have a long history of winning wars once they start. Rice hasn't said anything I want to disagree with.

As for Japan and nukes, it takes about four months to build a nuclear device, if you have the capability and know-how. Japan doesn't have to build nukes YET. I expect that the technology, capability, and information is available in Japan, and has been for quite a while. At the moment, however, the best thing for Japan to do is to greatly expand their conventional capabilties in the air, at sea, and on land. I still say the way to get China and NKor to spin in circles at high rates of speed is to GIVE Japan the Kitty Hawk and let them purchase a squadron or two of F/A-18s.

Posted by Old Patriot">Old Patriot 2006-10-12 23:34|| http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/]">[http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/] 2006-10-12 23:34|| Front Page Top

23:57 Zenster
23:56 Icerigger
23:50 Icerigger
23:48 Tony (UK)
23:45 trailing wife
23:34 Zenster
23:34 Old Patriot
23:31 Lancasters Over Dresden
23:26 Tibor
23:04 Hupailing Ebbuns2352
23:03 Hupailing Ebbuns2352
23:03 Hupailing Ebbuns2352
23:01 Hupailing Ebbuns2352
22:42 tu3031
22:33 FOTSGreg
22:28 Alaska Paul
22:27 J.D. Lux
22:26 JosephMendiola
22:24 FOTSGreg
22:22 DMFD
22:19 JosephMendiola
22:18 Frank G
22:17 Frank G
22:16 DMFD