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2004-10-11 Europe
Why al-Qaeda Will Dominate the European Union
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Posted by tipper 2004-10-11 9:33:39 AM|| || Front Page|| [11130 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 Very good story, question is if the transformation to a eurabian Europe will not become violent as our non productive European economies will put Europe in a pre- 1940 kind of situation....
Posted by Dutchgeek 2004-10-11 10:29:55 AM||   2004-10-11 10:29:55 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 DG - What are you gonna fight with? Pitchforks?
Posted by .com 2004-10-11 10:50:21 AM||   2004-10-11 10:50:21 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 While the author identifies the interesting trends of aggressive Islam, high Islamic birthrate, and a French led alliance against Israel and the US, the article projects present trends “a few decades”. I doubt those trends will continue.

Here are my own predictions:

Aggressive Islam is provoking a backlash throughout the world. Muslims may be highly motivated but their aggression will provoke a strong reaction by non-Muslims.

The high Islamic birthrate has already greatly slowed in Turkey. As other Islamic nations modernize, their birthrates will likely lower. High birthrate in Islamic nations such as Iran and Saudi Arabia are destabilizing those nations, as their economies can’t generate jobs for the swelling young population.

France won’t be an effective leader against the US. France itself is highly intolerant of its Muslim population. As the Muslim population of France grows that intolerance will dictate more French policy.

France is losing control of the EU. The larger EU will be less interested in constraining the US.

Finally, in a few decades globalization will be largely complete. The world populace will be connected through the Internet, through shared music, movies, and TV, and through an integrated economy.
Posted by Anonymous5032 2004-10-11 11:28:52 AM||   2004-10-11 11:28:52 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 A5032 - Don't you have a shoe or two left to drop here? Are you suggesting a chorus of Kumbayah?

Major Flaw, IMHO: That everything will remain static, such as no further major jihadi attacks. And, IMHO, Beslan has already made a mockery of such rosy-cheeked Pollyanna optimism.

When (choose at least one) NY, Long Beach, Houston, Baltimore, London, Rome, Marseille, Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Oslo, Stockholm, Hamburg, St Petersburg, etc. become Glow in the Dark attractions, will your scenario still make sense?

No. Sorry. I'd love for you to be right, but I don't buy it for even a minute.
Posted by .com 2004-10-11 11:54:28 AM||   2004-10-11 11:54:28 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 S**T .com I LIVE IN LONG BEACH!
Posted by BigEd 2004-10-11 2:46:30 PM||   2004-10-11 2:46:30 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 Sorry, I was distracted by .com's point...

Why al-Qaeda Will Dominate the European Union...
Because the largest 3 governments who are members of the EU who understand reality UK, Italy, Poland...
are disregarded by the euro-versions of the ABC knucklehead Halperin, and they have thier minions spread the word that appeasment pacifism pays...
Posted by BigEd 2004-10-11 2:51:13 PM||   2004-10-11 2:51:13 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 "As other Islamic nations modernize, their birthrates will likely lower."

So, you are saying their birthrates will continue to climb, right?
Posted by jackal  2004-10-11 5:23:43 PM|| [http://home.earthlink.net/~sleepyjackal/index.html]  2004-10-11 5:23:43 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 BE - Sorry, bro - but LB is where I'd start if I were AlQ. Much more than a mere symbolic effect.
Posted by .com 2004-10-11 6:31:36 PM||   2004-10-11 6:31:36 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 Militant Islam screwed the pooch at Belsan. That has totally isolated the Russians from European appeasement. Without Russia, ninety percent of Europe is a dead man walking.

There's also a growing backlash against the EU in some 20 countries, including most of Scandinavia, Italy, the Netherlands, and a few others. Most are willing to accept a common currency and free trade, but France's heavy hand at everything else has made most EU members cautious. A few are even on the verge of telling France - and the EU bureaucracy in Brussels - where to go, and not being polite about it.

I'm a stamp collector, and trade stamps with Europeans in a dozen countries. Most of the people I trade stamps with would rather switch to bilateral relationships with the United States than to continue with the EU. Most quote the arrogance of France and Germany as the cause. That includes one ex-patriate Frenchman living in Scandinavia, and a couple of Germans - one Hessian and one Bavarian.
Posted by Old Patriot  2004-10-11 8:09:33 PM|| [http://users.codenet.net/mweather/default.htm]  2004-10-11 8:09:33 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 "When they pry my cold dead hands from my gun." What was I thinking, they took the firearms away from the people in England. The anti-gunners had their way. Naive dumbasses. Disarming the people is bad,bad, bad! 2nd Amendment insures the First Amendment although the First Amendment is greatly abused by MSM enemy.
Posted by A. Bungfodder 2004-10-11 8:16:23 PM||   2004-10-11 8:16:23 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 .com, I’m much less optimistic than my comment may have indicated.

I was responding to the predictions of the article. My prediction in the case of a US “Beslan” or “Glow in the Dark attractions” is included in “their aggression will provoke a strong reaction by non-Muslims”.

I believe it is likely that the US will be unable to transform the ME before terrorists destroy a major US city. The likely US response is escalation to total war against much of the Islamic world. (I support the Bush strategy and believe we have to try, but I’m pessimistic about our chance of avoiding total war.)


Jackal: “So, you are saying their birthrates will continue to climb, right?”

(I get the humor but I’ll answer seriously anyway.)

There will be mixed demographics. Some Islamic countries will modernize and their birthrate will drop. Some Islamic countries will destabilize, as their economies can’t support their growing populations.

The immigrant populations will also exhibit mixed demographics. The US Muslim populous will likely split into those who integrate and those that become more Islamic. The two groups will have different birthrates. The US Muslim immigrants are significantly better educated than the European Arab immigrants and are significantly better integrated into US society. (Or the Turkish immigrants in Germany.)

If (and that is a big if) the world avoids total war for the next few decades, then I believe world conflicts will diminish as a world culture predominates.
Posted by Anonymous5032 2004-10-11 8:56:22 PM||   2004-10-11 8:56:22 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 *Shakes head* I doubt it, A5032: The clash of civilizations is over THE NATURE OF THE WORLD CULTURE. Al Q wants it to be islamist. The EU wants it Franco-philic. The United States IS MAKING IT American Western Secular. It's the "Secular" part that riles up the Islamists, who look upon winning and victory as a God Given mandate and guarantee.
Posted by Ptah  2004-10-11 9:39:54 PM|| [http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org]  2004-10-11 9:39:54 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 A5032 - Gotcha - good commentary. I'm of the opinion that they will make at least one US city a denial zone ala dirty bomb / small inefficient nuke via shipping container or just kill some tens of thousands via something like an LNG ship. It appears to be inevitable that they will get the means together eventually. I also believe that they will successfully make at least one major strike of similar magnitude in Europe - wherever they can pull it off. The idiocy of thinking that they care about the politics of various countries is laughable - we're all cattle to them. The "prestige" hit might seem preferable, of course, but anywhere is fine - the terror value will be the same.

I'd guess the odds of making it a decade without this happening to be so small as to make it no odds. Certainly, the coming election will affect the efforts on both sides of the equation rather dramatically. Fighting them here - or on their turf has been one of the largest benefits of having Bush executing the WoT, IMHO.

Call me pessimistic on the long-term scenarios, sadly.
Posted by .com 2004-10-11 9:41:54 PM||   2004-10-11 9:41:54 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 The idiocy of thinking that they care about the politics of various countries is laughable -- we're all cattle to them.

Agreed .com. I hope you are wrong about the strike. Our borders are porous. Wherever they launched from would have a lot to answer for.
Posted by A. Bungfodder 2004-10-11 9:50:01 PM||   2004-10-11 9:50:01 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 AB / JQC - As you say, it's currently still porous and that's still true after the dramatic increased efforts by Customs in LB, NY, Houston, SeaTac, and the Canadian and Mexican borders, et al. It's mainly human (and canine) effort and common sense (low-profile profiling, heh) because the "perfect" hardware is still being invented.

I know the AlQ types, at the fodder level, are apparently mostly morons - but common sense tells me we'll lose this game eventually. Somewhere along the way, a "plan" will actually work, just as 9/11 did. Who knows how many aborts occurred between WTC I and WTC II?

Things to consider slowly and with full cognizance of the ramifications:
How will we react? What will we hit if we don't know precisely where they came from or who directed them? The demand to hit back will be overwhelming. And even the dickheads who are trying to re-cripple us by watering down the Patriot Act will join the chorus, the fuckwits. HUGE questions, given the despicable condition of our CIA / FBI capabilities regards foreign terrorists. We will be heavily dependent upon other countries. There's even a fair possibility we will be manipulated, ala Nigerian yellowcake, as well. It will be a bitch situation the likes of which the world's never seen before. The world hasn't seen a true Gulliver / Lilliputian situation, militarily, before with global reach and such devastating (even if precise) weaponry. We may be forced to wipe out several locations to be sure we got the nest - that could mean a lot of neutrals (not innocents - they've had years to disassociate themselves from the jihadis) go out with the actual bad guys. I'm steeling myself for that eventuality, as well as our getting hit. There are 10 or 20 more aspects to this situation, as well. The quandry is a major reason why I've been realitvely quiet on RB. "Fry 'em up" is the easy part. Who. Where. That's some hardcore shit - and I don't have answers I'm happy with, as yet.

Ugly scenario all the way around.
Posted by .com 2004-10-11 10:17:27 PM||   2004-10-11 10:17:27 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 Ugly scenario, indeed, .com. But I am comforted that if we here are thinking about it, others in our culture must be, too. And the strength of the Anglo-American or American Western Secular culture is bringing together diverse viewpoints/competencies/approaches to bear on a problem with the aim of solving it, by God. Not just understanding it, or teasing out the root causes, but fixing it so that it won't be a problem any more.

Even in my darkest nights, I have faith that we will fix this thing. I just hope most of them will be around to enjoy the result -- and they won't be so stupid that we have to melt the sand.
Posted by trailing wife 2004-10-11 11:27:44 PM||   2004-10-11 11:27:44 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 To follow up my post above:

I was actually a lot more worried about the outcome before I found Rantburg. Y'all have taught me so much about the possibilities: tools, approaches, the caliber of the men and women working to fix this for all of us. (Even a whole new vocabulary!)

Sorry, I'm getting all sentimental. But its still true, for all of that.
Posted by trailing wife 2004-10-11 11:34:35 PM||   2004-10-11 11:34:35 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 Thanks, tw - I'm sorta sentimental too - at least in the respect that I would prefer that there be zero collaterals. Knowing it is impossible and, in fact, might entail many not even indirectly involved, background population, has given me long pause.

RB is an amazing place. Home. Lotsa smart and experienced people - like you - who help knock off the rough corners of our misunderstandings. I read it all, when I can. Thanx, again, for the feedback. :^)
Posted by .com 2004-10-11 11:52:01 PM||   2004-10-11 11:52:01 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 Don't assume an apocalyptic end with hundreds of millions dead and a globalized homgenized world culture are two alternate end-games. I tend to think both will occur. I also think some destabilizing event will trigger the end-game - a human or crop disease or my favourite an abrupt climactic event like 'the year without a summer' which caused widespread famine and mass migrations from Europe.
Posted by phil_b 2004-10-12 12:18:06 AM||   2004-10-12 12:18:06 AM|| Front Page Top

00:17 Uneter Snavins5298
20:43 Theans Thitch7229
19:36 Pappy
13:18 lex
00:18 phil_b
23:52 .com
23:49 phil_b
23:38 Pappy
23:34 trailing wife
23:32 Capt America
23:29 OldSpook
23:27 trailing wife
23:26 OldSpook
23:23 phil_b
23:17 Pappy
23:16 Barbara Skolaut
23:15 BigEd
23:06 trailing wife
23:04 BigEd
23:01 Atropanthe
23:00 Brett_the_Quarkian
22:58 Brett_the_Quarkian
22:57 BigEd
22:55 .com









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