Article

2004-09-12 China-Japan-Koreas

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Posted by Dan Darling 2004-09-12 12:01:27 AM|| || Front Page|| [11131 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 It seems some people saw it was coming soon.

Posted by jn1 2004-09-12 12:16:08 AM|| 2004-09-12 12:16:08 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Several officials speculated that the test, if it occurred, could be intended to influence the presidential election, though a senior military official said while "an election surprise" could be the motive, "I'm not sure what that would buy them."

Probably four more years of Bush.

Posted by tu3031 2004-09-12 12:20:19 AM|| 2004-09-12 12:20:19 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Was it atomic? or another "accident" as has happened in the last 12 months in both Iran and NoKo? there are the battles we are all invited to see, and there are the hidden operations (I hope!). Where was their fearless leader at the time of the explosion?

Posted by Kalle (kafir forever) 2004-09-12 12:30:12 AM|| [http://radio.weblogs.com/0103811/categories/currentEvents/] 2004-09-12 12:30:12 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Just throwing out a scenario here (not asserting this, just wondering), but maybe it was a conventional explosion meant to look like a nuke test for the domestic audience. Even if the rest of the world knows beyond any doubt that it wasn't nuclear, who's to know in North Korea? Yeah, it's pretty farfetched, but it's basically the same reasoning behind their "successful ICBM/satellite launch" that went sploosh in the West Pacific a few years back. If so, it's more evidence that the home crowd is getting restless. Worth keeping an eye on KCNA over the next few days.

Posted by Another Dan 2004-09-12 12:49:28 AM|| 2004-09-12 12:49:28 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 Free astrological chart provided by http://www.alabe.com/freechart/

Name: North Korea
September 9 1948
12:00 PM Time Zone is JST
Pyongyang, NKOR

Rising Sign is in 24 Degrees Scorpio
You tend to be quiet, reserved, secretive and, at times, quite difficult to understand. Others notice your deep emotions and feelings and wonder how to draw you out. Stubborn and tough, you fight for any position you believe in. You are very resourceful and formidable when you become angered or upset about something. You enjoy living life at the cutting edge -- for you life must be experienced intensely and totally. Quite courageous, you are willing to take calculated risks. Easily hurt by others, you often strike back with bitter sarcasm. Sensitive and curious, you are concerned with the deeper mysteries of human psychology. Once you have become interested in any subject, you pursue it with total fanaticism.

Sun is in 16 Degrees Virgo.
Extremely careful and cautious by nature, you value neatness and order above all else. You rigorously practice very high standards of living and conduct and you demand the same of everyone with whom you come into contact. At times, you are so supercritical that you are merely nit-picky. You are very good at practical skills and quite handy with tools of all kinds. You are also greatly concerned with hygiene, cleanliness and personal health problems. Very likely your health is much better than you think it is -- don't worry so much! Extremely methodical and analytical, you are a perfectionist -- this makes you the perfect person to carry out highly detailed, precise operations. But, at times, you pay so much attention to details that you lose sight of the larger issues.

Posted by Seafarious 2004-09-12 12:53:21 AM|| 2004-09-12 12:53:21 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 Very likely your health is much better than you think it is -- don't worry so much!

Yeah. That "eating" thing? Overrated...

Posted by tu3031 2004-09-12 1:02:39 AM|| 2004-09-12 1:02:39 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 Just heard on the radio at the 12:00 am (CST) news break (ABC News) that a "CIA Case Officer" said it was a forest fire, "no big deal."

Posted by Laurence of the Rats 2004-09-12 1:02:52 AM|| [http://www.punictreachery.com/] 2004-09-12 1:02:52 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 A mushroom cloud-shaped forest fire? Ummm...okaaaaay...

Posted by Seafarious 2004-09-12 1:10:10 AM|| 2004-09-12 1:10:10 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 Huge explosions and mushroom clouds? That's a helluva forest fire...

Posted by tu3031 2004-09-12 1:11:17 AM|| 2004-09-12 1:11:17 AM|| Front Page Top

#10 Nothing to see here.

If it were, N Korea would have Juche-Salad spread all over the news. You'd at least get a few good days of propaganda from the Bouffant Dictator's press guys.

And as far as a "fool the sensors" type of conventional explosion, not that easy: the intensity and gradient of the thermal activity in a nuclear detonation is unmistakable, and virtually impossible to fake (no real way to get conventional stuff to flash that intensely in that short a time then have the wavefront move at the right velocity), not to mention the absence EMP from a "fake".

You'd have better luck trying to fake a TOW missle using a sh*tload of bottlerockets.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-12 1:15:44 AM|| 2004-09-12 1:15:44 AM|| Front Page Top

#11 I wasn't aware that there were any trees or grass left in NK. Regardless, the whole "CIA case officer" line from the radio reminded me of every nitwit reporter that calls a bulldozer a "tank" just because a soldier is driving it.

Posted by Laurence of the Rats 2004-09-12 1:23:33 AM|| [http://www.punictreachery.com/] 2004-09-12 1:23:33 AM|| Front Page Top

#12 OldSpook, absolutely. As you and I both say, all of those measurable observations would be both obvious and quantifiable to the outside world. But if the state media paint this story with the Juche brush, how would Mr. and Mrs. Pyongyang ever know otherwise? "But Dear Leader, no electromagnetic pulse crashed my laptop while I was checking CBS document forgery updates on Little Green Footballs. How can that be?"

Posted by Another Dan 2004-09-12 1:33:35 AM|| 2004-09-12 1:33:35 AM|| Front Page Top

#13 Well, We've all waited for the other "Kimmy Shoe" to drop, and now it has!! It's poker time now,,, The US has got to put up or shut up! Damn if Bush wasn't right on, with the Axis Of Evil! Iran Next!!!

Posted by smn 2004-09-12 1:38:27 AM|| 2004-09-12 1:38:27 AM|| Front Page Top

#14 Case in point, here's KCNA's Juche-saturated proclamation of the supposed satellite launch in '98 (notice it's dated nearly a week after the incident), despite the entire outside world having watched it splash into the ocean. Rantburgers are so used to pissing our pants laughing at KCNA that we forget something abominable: for 23 million people, this is their only source of news. I won't kid myself into pretending that I can imagine living like that. If this mushroom was as large as the initial reports are saying, then even the North Korean gov't will eventually have to say something, and the only two acceptable options are either "It's the Juche bomb! Hurrah, hurrah!" or "It's a Yankee nuclear attack! Comrades, prepare for Armageddon!" Call me cynical, but I don't see "Oops, we fucked up with a munitions depot" as a politically acceptable option, especially if it's the truth (which it very well could be). Again, let's keep an eye on KCNA for the next few days.

Posted by Another Dan 2004-09-12 2:00:54 AM|| 2004-09-12 2:00:54 AM|| Front Page Top

#15 Kim Jong-Il always wants to ELEVATE his explanations, but in the end, he always comes up a little bit SHORT

Posted by BigEd 2004-09-12 3:04:55 AM|| 2004-09-12 3:04:55 AM|| Front Page Top

#16 There went Kimmy's cognac budget up in smoke.

Posted by ed 2004-09-12 9:04:48 AM|| 2004-09-12 9:04:48 AM|| Front Page Top

#17 ..In 1984 or 85, the Soviets managed to cook off the munitions storage facility for the Atlantic Red Banner Fleet up near Murmansk. This was literally EVERY bit of reserve ammo - bullets, bombs, and missiles for their Atlantic Fleet; had a war started they'd have been (pardon the expression) sunk. Our satellites caught it at once, and because the explosion was so huge, it was thought at first that it might have been a nuclear event.
The point here is that our Socialist brethren have a very bad habit of piling up all their goodies in one or two big locations - easier to guard that way. My guess is that's what we got here.

Mike

Posted by Mike Kozlowski 2004-09-12 10:16:21 AM|| 2004-09-12 10:16:21 AM|| Front Page Top

#18 hmmm go figure. I was born September 5th and my astrological chart just said I was "a sarcastic asshole"....none of the other good stuff. taint fair...

Posted by Frank G 2004-09-12 10:44:47 AM|| 2004-09-12 10:44:47 AM|| Front Page Top

#19 Did some digging. Here's a bit of open source unclassified geography lesson for you guys.

Yongjo-ri is in the area of the explosion.

This area is known for its munitions factories and has several rail lines that form a nexus there.

The Rodong/Nodong missle factories and storage depots are also within 10Km of this town.

Draw your own conclusion.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-12 11:40:26 AM|| 2004-09-12 11:40:26 AM|| Front Page Top

#20 could this have been a successful special forces adventure?

Posted by PlanetDan 2004-09-12 11:56:29 AM|| 2004-09-12 11:56:29 AM|| Front Page Top

#21 re: special ops...

Never ascribe to malice that which can be accounted by incompetence.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-12 12:39:41 PM|| 2004-09-12 12:39:41 PM|| Front Page Top

#22 Bet the ChiComs were real happy about that so close to the border and (most likely) without a 'heads up'....

Posted by Frank G 2004-09-12 12:41:32 PM|| 2004-09-12 12:41:32 PM|| Front Page Top

#23 OS: Never ascribe to malice that which can be accounted by incompetence.

Note that this may be the sign of a regime on its last legs - nothing works, not even the military that keeps the regime propped up. There's also the possibility of internal sabotage, by aggrieved soldiers who have had enough and won't take it any more.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-09-12 2:04:17 PM|| [http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2004-09-12 2:04:17 PM|| Front Page Top

#24 ZF, True, but the prevalence of incompetence and the "who gives a sh^t" attitude are so prevalent in dictatorships that even fear cannot overwhelm them.

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2004-09-12 2:10:10 PM|| 2004-09-12 2:10:10 PM|| Front Page Top

#25 #10 And as far as a "fool the sensors" type of conventional explosion, not that easy: the intensity and gradient of the thermal activity in a nuclear detonation is unmistakable, and virtually impossible to fake (no real way to get conventional stuff to flash that intensely in that short a time then have the wavefront move at the right velocity), not to mention the absence EMP from a "fake".

Listen to the man who knows. Our network of seismic detectors can pinpoint a nuclear test anywhere on earth within minutes. The "wavefront" that OldSpook mentions is the one that travels through the entire planet. It's kind of hard to miss that sort of event when it shows up at every single USGS seismic monitoring station in America.

Never ascribe to malice that which can be accounted by incompetence.

I'd heard this one as:

Never attribute to conspiracy what can be explained by simple stupidity.

An extremely cynical sort of Occam's razor.

As Frank pointed out, this latest caper is just another watery turd on communist China's living room carpet, courtesy of their underfed Rottweiler. Too bad the politburo is so obsessed with global domination that it will take something much more severe (e.g., a Cherynoble-style meltdown) to get their attention.

Posted by Zenster 2004-09-12 2:55:49 PM|| 2004-09-12 2:55:49 PM|| Front Page Top

#26 If it was
I can't help but think that this was intended to get the Chinese attention, in addition to the US. And I think that will prove to be a really bad idea on Little Kimmie's part. The could have done the test underground (they're great little diggers, y'know) so a big, dirty atmospheric blast is probably deliberate.

If it wasn't an "accident", that is...

Posted by mojo 2004-09-12 3:04:23 PM|| 2004-09-12 3:04:23 PM|| Front Page Top

#27 Zenster...

you didn't hear the wavefront and wave envelope from me. Nope. not from me. I didnt say that. Glad you did.

;-)

Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-12 4:47:09 PM|| 2004-09-12 4:47:09 PM|| Front Page Top

#28 Thank you, OldSpook. Always glad to help dispel any false assumptions. Your JDAM and bottle rockets analogy was spot on.

Envelope analysis is a critic feature in assessing seismic events. The oil industry has been using this methodolgy for many decades. Similar to the acoustical envelope (as opposed to harmonic overtones) largely responsible for the distinctly different voicing or timbre of various musical instruments, the envelope of seismic waves illuminates much about their origin.

In musical terminology an envelope has several components. They are, in order of sequence:

1.) Attack: The risetime of an acoustic signal from zero value (silence) to peak amplitude (full volume).

2.) Sustain: The duration or period of time which the note then remains at peak amplitude.

3.) Decay: The time required for the note played to diminish back to zero volume.

4.) Release: A special term designating an intentional clipping of the note's length of decay period.

The key term here is attack. Under no circumstances are conventional explosives able to mimic the massive and instantaneous energy release of a nuclear weapon's detonation. Chemical bombs have a much lengthier time of combustion as they explode.

It is this one key difference that results in easily distinguishable attack signatures for the departing wavefront from such large explosions. The leading edge of a nuclear bomb's acoustic pulse signature will show a significantly steeper angle of rise from its baseline. It will also exhibit a much sharper "knee" as it undergoes a transition between the attack and sustain components of its envelope.

The slower combustion rate of conventional explosives produces a less acute angle of attack and nowhere near the sharpness of knee when compared to a nuclear blast wave's risetime and peaking. The number of times a wavefront reverberates around the entire world and the speed at which it does this also assists in discriminating between nuclear and conventional explosions.

Posted by Zenster 2004-09-12 5:43:02 PM|| 2004-09-12 5:43:02 PM|| Front Page Top

#29 Oooh, I do love going to dinner parties and not being the sweet little shopping-and-art-galerie wifie so many expect! I once had the loveliest conversation about the latest improvements in concrete technology....just think how much fun I'll have when throwing Murmansk,wavefront reverberation and knee sharpness into the discussion.

Thank you so much, Mike and Zenster and all, but no thanks to Old Spook, who didn't add anything, and anyway I don't know who he is ;-D

(Now, all I need is for someone to invite me to a dinner party.)

Posted by trailing wife 2004-09-12 6:14:12 PM|| 2004-09-12 6:14:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#30 Yes, I'm shallow (at least when I'm in a fey mood). But you knew that, didn't you?

Posted by trailing wife 2004-09-12 6:44:49 PM|| 2004-09-12 6:44:49 PM|| Front Page Top

#31 Zenster, you know much about FFTs and their first real-world application area?

If you do, I'll suspect you of having either worked a lot in certain parts of west Texas or else that you're living in northern Virginia near a nice small town. (grin)

Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-12 6:48:48 PM|| 2004-09-12 6:48:48 PM|| Front Page Top

#32 I'm just guessing, but as a legacy of the cold war we probably have sensors watching multiple spectrums of energy emission mounted on a variety of platforms covering the globe. I suspect we also have some pretty cool Mach N (N=?) stealth UAVs that carry some of these sensors.

Posted by V is for Victory 2004-09-12 6:53:24 PM|| 2004-09-12 6:53:24 PM|| Front Page Top

#33 Supersonic stealth UAV?

Nah - reality is much more mundane. That was one of the disappointments of mine upon learning some things - the majority of the work is simply good relaible sources and grunt work by analysts. Hard part is "selling the analysis product" to somone whose mindset and prejudices steer them away from solid conclusion by clashing with their world view. Happened a lot in the 90's.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-09-12 7:03:26 PM|| 2004-09-12 7:03:26 PM|| Front Page Top

#34 #31 Zenster, you know much about FFTs and their first real-world application area? If you do, I'll suspect you of having either worked a lot in certain parts of west Texas or else that you're living in northern Virginia near a nice small town.

OldSpook, it's a personal pleasure to shoulder some of the load for you around here. Maybe I can trade my services here for a brief review by you of the North Korean firepower calculations I posted over in the "South Korean minister sez ..." thread.

Fairly rudimentary physics can shed a lot of light on what are really rather mundane processes, no matter how complicated they seem to be. As to FFT's; While I've never worked in the petrochemical industry or for any of the intelligence gathering agencies, a lot of semiconductor in situ process monitoring relies upon Fourier spectroscopy to analyse emission spectra. It permits accurate estimation of reactant utilization, deposition rates, energy absorption and a host of other vital parameters.

I do know that the earliest applications for FFT analysis were in searching for oil deposits (reflected wave geological density calculations) and digital signal processing (i.e., crytography). I think the latter falls more into your realm of expertise, OldSpook (nudge nudge). Some of the most massive multidimensional FFT programs are currently in use at Stanford University to analyse signals gathered in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.

A basic understanding of these sort of applications is what permitted me to contribute to America's stealth and SDI programs. I enjoy thinking that my work on those projects helped us to win the Cold War.

#32 ... we probably have sensors watching multiple spectrums of energy emission mounted on a variety of platforms covering the globe.

Some of our stare-down mosaic arrays orbiting over eastern Russia may have picked up the blast flash in North Korea. We probably scrambled a U-2 to sample the updraft plume from this explosion. Simple remote laser interferometry (using FFT analysis) could tell us nearly everything we need to know about that mushroom cloud's chemical composition.

Posted by Zenster 2004-09-12 7:50:47 PM|| 2004-09-12 7:50:47 PM|| Front Page Top

#35 #29 Thank you so much, Mike and Zenster and all ...

Trailing Wife, your posts in particular are among some of my favorites around these parts. You and your husband would be most welcome guests at any of my dinner parties. Your "fey mood" adds a delightful bit of leavening to the ofttimes grim content here at Rantburg.

Posted by Zenster 2004-09-12 8:02:02 PM|| 2004-09-12 8:02:02 PM|| Front Page Top

#36 Guys...It's really easy to tell if was a nuke. As one who was in the underground nuclear test program...we have had methods of detecting UNT's with good accuracy almost 20 years ago.

Suffice it say we have satellites looking at the NK constantly for just that sort of thing. We have aircraft that are also capable of sniffing evidence of even a limited above ground test from quite a distance away.

My bet is it was not a nuke.

Posted by anymouse 2004-09-12 8:12:40 PM|| 2004-09-12 8:12:40 PM|| Front Page Top

#37 A stealth UAV would be a cost effective sensor platform for certain collection missions, to augment the very expensive and (and delayed?) next-gen orbital platforms. Laser remote sensing requires line of sight so normally would have to be from an airborne platform. Perhaps the geometry in the NKor case would allow LOS measurements from SKor or from other positions not requiring overflight, I don't know.

Posted by V is for Victory 2004-09-12 8:13:52 PM|| 2004-09-12 8:13:52 PM|| Front Page Top

#38 "...munitions storage facility..."

Hmmm...can a MOAB fit in a B-2?

Posted by Tobacconist 2004-09-12 8:26:56 PM|| 2004-09-12 8:26:56 PM|| Front Page Top

#39 V, high altitude UAVs don't really require any stealth technology as they cannot be reached by a majority of common weapons. The drones we currently use do not have the time-aloft figures that would make them entirely useful for realtime monitoring.

Better candidates for what you refer to are ERAST and solar aircraft platforms.

Helios will incorporate energy storage for nighttime flight and be capable of continuous flight for six months at a time at altitudes of over 60,000 feet on telecommunications or science missions. The ERAST program is working to develop the technology base for a future fleet of such remotely piloted aircraft.

For its final flight the Centurion carried a simulated payload of more than 600 pounds -- approximately half the lightweight aircraft's empty weight. John Del Frate, the NASA program manager, noted the airframe "really has the muscle to do big jobs."

Posted by Zenster 2004-09-12 8:39:53 PM|| 2004-09-12 8:39:53 PM|| Front Page Top

#40 Z: Yes different platforms for different missions. Stealth UAV would be for cases where you don't want anyone to know you're there, and for collection of info that could be captured in a relatively short time. Helios is for long-term monitoring. I would think laser remote sensing of the cloud could be done in a relatively short time.

BTW for Trailing Wife and others the FFT Zenster is talking about is the Fast Fourier Transform, an algorithm for calculating the Fourier Transform of a signal. Which is what? The Fourier Transform is the distribution of frequencies, i.e. the spectrum of a signal. The spectrum of a signal can tell you a lot about the source of the signal. For example the spectrum of the light emitted from an ionized cloud of gas can tell you what the chemical composition of the cloud is.

Posted by V is for Victory 2004-09-12 9:15:00 PM|| 2004-09-12 9:15:00 PM|| Front Page Top

#41 Zenster, I blush.

Victory, I must admit to being a solid fan of all engineers and scientists. I only got as far as differential equations, myself. When I took the intro.engineering course (math on its own isn't a viable career, dontchaknow), the prof. dropped by one grade the final exam grade of all those not intended by nature to be engineers. I got a B, and deservedly so. But Daddy was a biochemistry prof, and my husband started out as a Chem.E. So I have solid basis for my appreciation. (And facinating dinner party conversations!!)

Posted by trailing wife 2004-09-12 10:18:11 PM|| 2004-09-12 10:18:11 PM|| Front Page Top

23:51 UFO
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08:26 UFO
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13:29 feeling bitchy
13:05 Anonymous6428
11:19 trailing wife
08:47 lyot