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2004-08-24 Iraq-Jordan
Sadr followers on the verge of collapse
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Posted by Dan Darling 2004-08-24 12:13:44 PM|| || Front Page|| [11126 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 kick butt, take names and print them on the toe tags.
Posted by Anymouse 2004-08-24 12:21:07 PM||   2004-08-24 12:21:07 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 1. thank you Dan for sparing us having to do the NYT registration dance

2. They’re running like deer," said Haidar Abdul-Hussein

I didn't know they had deer in southern Iraq.
Posted by mhw 2004-08-24 12:40:32 PM||   2004-08-24 12:40:32 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 What happened to "Glorious Death!", "to the last drop of blood!" and all that good shit?
We've seen this movie before, haven't we...
Posted by tu3031 2004-08-24 12:51:20 PM||   2004-08-24 12:51:20 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 Smells like a good time for a hudna.
Posted by BH 2004-08-24 12:51:57 PM||   2004-08-24 12:51:57 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 This is actually a somewhat balanced article. My draw almost dropped when I read that there are "old doubts" about "Mr." Sadr. Up until now, I guess I just thought he was a rebel cleric, the lightning rod for the millions of enraged shia's ;)

I wish the media would take their analysis just a bit further and speculate as to reasons adobe, mud, concrete building are bursting into flame when hit by US munitions. Sure, it could be HE rounds...but it's more likely that these are enemy ammo dumps, no?
Posted by mjh  2004-08-24 1:03:34 PM||   2004-08-24 1:03:34 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 mwh...good catch :-)

NYT wouldn't want to give the new Iraqi forces the benefit of looking tough, now would they. No need to bravely storm the place, since all that's left inside is:
"just a dwindling band of men napped and chatted on carpets in the shade of the mosque’s high walls."

And the Reuter's article called them "poorly armed and equipped," or some such.

It's not a big victory, you see. Not much more than asking a few derelicts to move along.

If they are trying to spin it as "no big deal", it means they know it's already done. Woo HOO!
Posted by B 2004-08-24 1:11:03 PM||   2004-08-24 1:11:03 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg TROLL 2004-08-24 1:13:48 PM||   2004-08-24 1:13:48 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg TROLL 2004-08-24 1:16:11 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:11 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg TROLL 2004-08-24 1:16:12 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg TROLL 2004-08-24 1:16:12 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg TROLL 2004-08-24 1:16:12 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg TROLL 2004-08-24 1:16:13 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:13 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg TROLL 2004-08-24 1:16:13 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:13 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg TROLL 2004-08-24 1:16:13 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:13 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg TROLL 2004-08-24 1:16:14 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:14 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg TROLL 2004-08-24 1:16:14 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:14 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg TROLL 2004-08-24 1:16:14 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:14 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg TROLL 2004-08-24 1:16:15 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:15 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg TROLL 2004-08-24 1:16:15 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:15 PM|| Front Page Top

#20 you suck?
Posted by Frank G  2004-08-24 1:17:08 PM||   2004-08-24 1:17:08 PM|| Front Page Top

#21 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg TROLL 2004-08-24 1:18:35 PM||   2004-08-24 1:18:35 PM|| Front Page Top

#22 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg TROLL 2004-08-24 1:18:35 PM||   2004-08-24 1:18:35 PM|| Front Page Top

#23 Another wanker who can't take reality in straight does I see.
Posted by Trub 2004-08-24 1:29:17 PM||   2004-08-24 1:29:17 PM|| Front Page Top

#24 [Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg TROLL 2004-08-24 1:30:56 PM||   2004-08-24 1:30:56 PM|| Front Page Top

#25 LMAO, looks like we got a DUmmy infestation...
Posted by Damn_Proud_American  2004-08-24 1:32:24 PM|| [http://brighterfuture.blogspot.com]  2004-08-24 1:32:24 PM|| Front Page Top

#26 He wont sit still so you can whack him... keeps jumpin threads.
Posted by 2% 2004-08-24 1:34:09 PM||   2004-08-24 1:34:09 PM|| Front Page Top

#27 You don't suppose those "poorly armed and equipped" Tater tots have internet access, do you?
Posted by GreatestJeneration  2004-08-24 1:35:14 PM|| [http://www.greatestjeneration.com]  2004-08-24 1:35:14 PM|| Front Page Top

#28  Yeah it's a tough day to be a dhimmicrat. Tater's gettin mashed, and Kerry is self destructing. I love it!
Posted by Rex Mundi 2004-08-24 1:35:25 PM||   2004-08-24 1:35:25 PM|| Front Page Top

#29 Well, seeing how all I see is troll noise instead of intelligent signal, there is nothing to be open about here.

*yawn* call me when you grow out of childhood, and perhaps I'll give a shit what you think.
Posted by Trub 2004-08-24 1:36:56 PM||   2004-08-24 1:36:56 PM|| Front Page Top

#30 #2...the Persian Fallow deer, resident in Iran/Iraq was thought to be extinct. It's a little bugger...but has a larger brain than the "Rantburg spawn".
Posted by RN  2004-08-24 1:37:41 PM||   2004-08-24 1:37:41 PM|| Front Page Top

#31 That last to troll-boy guys, not you all. Sorry if I was unclear.
Posted by Trub 2004-08-24 1:37:58 PM||   2004-08-24 1:37:58 PM|| Front Page Top

#32 Hey now everyone. This is another obvious example of radical right-wing censorship.

Rantburg, I feel your pain and I will listen to you. Go ahead and email me at YourADumbass@Rantburg.com.
Posted by 2% enters the sarcasm realm 2004-08-24 1:42:52 PM||   2004-08-24 1:42:52 PM|| Front Page Top

#33 whenever a troll does this, I always go back and reread the comments to see what it is that they don't want me to see.
Posted by B 2004-08-24 1:43:50 PM||   2004-08-24 1:43:50 PM|| Front Page Top

#34 Looks like troll boy's also seen this movie before. I don't think he liked it. Especially the ending.
Posted by tu3031 2004-08-24 1:47:19 PM||   2004-08-24 1:47:19 PM|| Front Page Top

#35 Hi Gentle,
Glad to see you back. Can you comment on this?
Posted by ed 2004-08-24 1:50:57 PM||   2004-08-24 1:50:57 PM|| Front Page Top

#36 What did anyone expect was going to be the likely outcome of this? Negotiating with Sadr is useless as his previous uprisings show, so keep him talking, keep his guys in one spot, surround the place and then slowly pick them apart. No need to rush in - they aren't going to get any major re-supply and why waste your men? Just grind them down slowly, precisely, and relentlessly.
Posted by Mikey  2004-08-24 2:11:10 PM||   2004-08-24 2:11:10 PM|| Front Page Top

#37 gonna smell like a den of trolls with all the dead bodies there. Good for Islamic Hero™ morale
Posted by Frank G  2004-08-24 2:15:09 PM||   2004-08-24 2:15:09 PM|| Front Page Top

#38 They’re running like deer," said Haidar Abdul-Hussein

Nice to see that Jason Blair is back on the job.
Posted by anon 2004-08-24 3:07:08 PM||   2004-08-24 3:07:08 PM|| Front Page Top

#39 Guys, some more details on Sadr:

1) He has not completed his eductaion. Normally to move up, you have to have some significant scholarly achievement, some thoguht and literate amplification of dogma of Shia.

Sadr has not done this. He has instead killed his rivals and used populaims to force his way to his current title.

2) Imams are supposed to always be very well spoken, and fairly careful in their language, like Sistani. Good diction, pronounciation, and voice control. These are vital for their readings to promote the proper Word of Allah clearly for the worshippers, and for the prayers to be properly heard.

Sadr has poor voice, and alledgedly has a slight lisp. His diction (word choice) is poor and inexact. And he has no real training other than just saying what the people want to hear, especially the poor - in short he's a rabble rouser, not a man of Allah.

3) He is claiming that the Madhi is coming - basically trying to make himself the Moslem equivalnet of John the Baptist. Thats why he gave the Madhi Army that particualr name. The 12th patriarch is coming soon and will appear in Iraq, according to Sadr.

This particualr claim is disdained by almost all main-line Shia, which is why you do not see anyone other than the political masters in Iran backing the guy. The onlything this does is fire up the followers with a "millienialist" type of fervor. The problem for Sadr is that if the Madhi doesnt show up soon, he loses his apocalyptic followers and their fevor for suicidal militant actions.

4) His followers are increasingly composed of people they break out of jails - thugs, rapists and theives.

These guys, when in power, like when they have taken over a town, tend to repeat the criminal behavior. They wear out their welcom quickly outside of their home town - the ghettos of Sadr city and the warrens of Fallujah. This further burns out Sadr's credibility - the longer the Madhi army stays, the worse the locals like it.

ANd on top of that, any place Sadr goes ends up destroyed with a lot of dead Madhi Army bodes around, because it draws in the US forces, who are now closing to hand-to-ahnd range to clear these guys out, up close and personal. Sadr is getting a reputation for destroying anything where he goes - which makes him and his "army" unwelcome almost anywhere that knows the truth about him.

Finally, now that its known they are targeting mosques as "safe houses", the Allawi government woudl be wise to place trusted guards in company sized strength to secure all the other "top 10" major holy sites for Shia and Sunni. Once this is done, Sadr will have no more easy targets.
Posted by OldSpook 2004-08-24 9:40:34 PM||   2004-08-24 9:40:34 PM|| Front Page Top

#40 OS, pardon me if this is an obvious question that you've already covered in your superb posts on this topic, but why is Sadr still walking and talking and seeing things? Every sniper in the 1st MEF must have had this guy in his sights by now.
Posted by Matt 2004-08-24 9:47:20 PM||   2004-08-24 9:47:20 PM|| Front Page Top

#41 Why is Sadr still walking and talking?

Simple - killing him without killing his reputation makes him a martyr around which the Iranians could build a continuing terrorist operation and destabilize the Iraqi government.

The one thing worse than death for Sadr is exposure of his inadequacies, and stripping away his standing and following.

And thats what this is designed to do.

Once Sadr is discredited, shown to be an agent of the Iranian government, and exposed as a generally disreputable little gangster, then someone can take him out - but there will be little need to do so.
Posted by OldSpook 2004-08-24 9:57:06 PM||   2004-08-24 9:57:06 PM|| Front Page Top

#42 Meanwhile, marines swept around the western edge of the city before striking at a large parking garage just west of the mosque.

Is the parking garage holy ground?

Matt, Sadr was not available to meet with the peace negotiators in Najaf because it would be a risk to his security. What else could be made of this other than he was safely outside fo Najaf? He will not be easy to catch, but he will be easier to catch than Sadaam. I would stake out every Shia mosque beginning Thursday PM.
Posted by Super Hose 2004-08-24 10:00:46 PM||   2004-08-24 10:00:46 PM|| Front Page Top

#43 Let me clarify that a bit.

Kill Sadr now, and someone else steps into the head position of the organization.

Discredit him, and his organization withers away or shatters to small fragmented uncoordinated groups.

In either case it becomes unable to stage large operations like this, or even geographically diverse operations -the will be at best a force in Sadr City ghettos and Falluja, and possibly Al Ramadi. But thats it - and they will be unable to effectively resist the cordon-sweep-clear oif combined US/Iraqi forces in those cities.
Posted by OldSpook 2004-08-24 10:01:00 PM||   2004-08-24 10:01:00 PM|| Front Page Top

#44 OS is right - Sadr isn't much more than a theology student. Some additional info on why he's still walking around - his father was highly respected and 'martyred' by Hussein's people. So although it is much dimmed by his thug if a son, the 'aura' still persists.
Posted by Pappy 2004-08-24 11:09:45 PM||   2004-08-24 11:09:45 PM|| Front Page Top

#45 Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg 2004-08-24 1:30:56 PM||   2004-08-24 1:30:56 PM|| Front Page Top

#46 Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg 2004-08-24 1:18:35 PM||   2004-08-24 1:18:35 PM|| Front Page Top

#47 Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg 2004-08-24 1:16:15 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:15 PM|| Front Page Top

#48 Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg 2004-08-24 1:18:35 PM||   2004-08-24 1:18:35 PM|| Front Page Top

#49 Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg 2004-08-24 1:16:14 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:14 PM|| Front Page Top

#50 Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg 2004-08-24 1:16:14 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:14 PM|| Front Page Top

#51 Off-topic or abusive comments deleted]
Posted by Rantburg 2004-08-24 1:16:14 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:14 PM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Rantburg 2004-08-24 1:16:15 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:15 PM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Rantburg 2004-08-24 1:16:13 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:13 PM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Rantburg 2004-08-24 1:16:13 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:13 PM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Rantburg 2004-08-24 1:16:13 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:13 PM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Rantburg 2004-08-24 1:16:12 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:12 PM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Rantburg 2004-08-24 1:16:12 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:12 PM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Rantburg 2004-08-24 1:16:12 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:12 PM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Rantburg 2004-08-24 1:16:11 PM||   2004-08-24 1:16:11 PM|| Front Page Top

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Posted by Rantburg 2004-08-24 1:13:48 PM||   2004-08-24 1:13:48 PM|| Front Page Top

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