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2006-08-11 International-UN-NGOs
Sources: U.S., France agree on peace plan
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Posted by ed 2006-08-11 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11127 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 Looks like the Lebanese government isn't gonna go for it because the Joos aren't moving out of southern Leb fast enough. The Ruskies have their own proposal calling for a 72-hour Hezbo rearming period humanitarian period.

And then the Frenchies have their "own" separate proposal in case the US-French proposal falls.

With any luck, no agreement and the push to Beirut and beyond commences.
Posted by Captain America 2006-08-11 00:17||   2006-08-11 00:17|| Front Page Top

#2 "U.S., France agree on peace plan"

That's nice, but since it's the Israelis and Syria Iran the Lebanese Hizzie-nuts who are actually fighting....
Posted by Barbara Skolaut">Barbara Skolaut  2006-08-11 00:32|| http://ariellestjohndesigns.com]">[http://ariellestjohndesigns.com]  2006-08-11 00:32|| Front Page Top

#3 Looks like the UN (France and USA) have caved in on disarming Hizbollocks, which means another war not too far in the future, and in the interim much crowing by HB that they beat the Jooos. Dam and double dam.
Posted by phil_b">phil_b  2006-08-11 00:49|| http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]">[http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]  2006-08-11 00:49|| Front Page Top

#4 Right, the "peace plans" will come and go. Not worried about that. Olmert and Peretz, a different story. They may say tomorrow "go ahead" and 12 hours later, say "prrrrr". F~<&!^@ schlemiels!

With leaders like that, who needs enemies?

No, am not Jewish, but Israel is on the very important front line of Western Civilization.

I simply draw parallels, since I was born in a small country that was called Czechoslovakia and don't like to see the history stutter.
Posted by twobyfour 2006-08-11 00:56||   2006-08-11 00:56|| Front Page Top

#5 I know exactly zip about Israeli politix. Are 'no confidence' votes possible? If so, I should think Netanyahu is working overtime on forcing one at this very moment.
Posted by PBMcL 2006-08-11 01:28||   2006-08-11 01:28|| Front Page Top

#6 History repeats itself. Amazing. We've earned what's coming.
Posted by Rex Mundi 2006-08-11 01:36||   2006-08-11 01:36|| Front Page Top

#7 More PC bullshit. I think this has Rice's stamp on it. She's no more useful than Madeleine Halfbright.
Posted by SOP35/Rat 2006-08-11 01:54||   2006-08-11 01:54|| Front Page Top

#8 Sorry not blaming Condi on this one, if Olmert does not want to fight the US is just taking the other route and salvaging what we can. Israel had its shot and it's leadership let them down.
Posted by djohn66 2006-08-11 02:01||   2006-08-11 02:01|| Front Page Top

#9 I'll play the bad guy... Diplomacy is a game. Condi is serving at the pleasure of the President. You don't like Condi? Then you don't like how Bush plays the diplomacy game. She is the designated "nice doggie" who talks the quadruple-speak of diplomacy. What will this actually mean, in reality? Honestly, none of us here know, though I'm sure a few can accurately guess what will play out.

The failure of nerve implied and cursed so far in this thread may be real - or it may not be. If it is, and there are soooo many ways it can become yet another irrelevant UN resolution to add to the dung-heap of UN "accomplishments", it is shared by many - but most specifically Israel (Olmert) who held the high ground and had the clear opportunity, strong support, and right to aggressively pursue a military "solution". Speed was key. What we saw was irresolute and ambivalent and chaotic.

Personally, if this does play out to be another idiotic stalemate, leaving both the farce of international diplomacy intact and the threat of Hezbollah to attack again at a time of their choosing, then I most regret the lost opportunity to drag Syria and Iran out into the open for direct reprisal -- and regime change -- with the US doing the heavy lifting. It was there, just a few steps further down the road.
Posted by flyover 2006-08-11 02:34||   2006-08-11 02:34|| Front Page Top

#10 I hope this "peace" plan will fail.

Probably, US and France and China and Russia won't be able to agree on the exact same text...

But the problem remains: is Olmert going to do what has to be done: let the IDF fight the war ?

I doubt it, seeing how timidly he has acted so far.
Posted by leroidavid">leroidavid  2006-08-11 02:59||   2006-08-11 02:59|| Front Page Top

#11 The failure of nerve implied and cursed so far in this thread may be real - or it may not be.

In the short-medium run, it doesn't much matter. The appearance of a failure of nerve is certainly emboldening jihadi and mullah scum everywhere.
Posted by JSU 2006-08-11 03:14||   2006-08-11 03:14|| Front Page Top

#12 "UNIFIL deployment had been a key sticking point"

What abooot the original sticking point? The kidnapped soldiers!! If this deal goes through, without the soldiers being returned, then Olmert is a traitor to his people. Then again, you get what you vote for.

As much as we like to blame Condi, (especially me) and as I take a 50,000 ft view, Israelis must realize that they are over the 18yrs of age and need to start taking care of themselves. If kids want respect from their parents, then they need take some responsibility for themselves. This current Israeli leadership comes crying to daddy USA and mommy UN every time they get in a hole. After receiving the rope to get out of the hole, they want someone to pull them up, too.

Grow some nuts and get with the program, people! Enough, with the victim card nonsense. Frankly, itÂ’s getting old and tired.
Posted by Poison Reverse 2006-08-11 03:47||   2006-08-11 03:47|| Front Page Top

#13 ya'll need to learn how to read. What this article is saying is that John Bolton said "we're not there yet."
Posted by Shush Sholuth7794 2006-08-11 07:16||   2006-08-11 07:16|| Front Page Top

#14 Israel needs to have an election.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-08-11 08:14||   2006-08-11 08:14|| Front Page Top

#15 So far I think this is another case of GWB stringing a poker hand out until he sees enough of the cards. Will the Israelis really fight hard? Will the Hezbies break and run? Will the Russians and Chinese veto any resolution that leaves the Israelis in southern Lebanon?

I think GWB hasn't seen enough cards to call. The peace plan is just another way to say, "I'll take two ..." and wait to see what happens. For sure, even if this 'plan' were to be approved tomorrow by the UNSC (hah), it would take weeks to be implemented. Let's see what develops.
Posted by Steve White">Steve White  2006-08-11 09:50||   2006-08-11 09:50|| Front Page Top

#16 Nice analogy SW. I agree GWB is not ready to fold yet.
Posted by phil_b">phil_b  2006-08-11 10:06|| http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]">[http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]  2006-08-11 10:06|| Front Page Top

#17 "I know exactly zip about Israeli politix. Are 'no confidence' votes possible? If so, I should think Netanyahu is working overtime on forcing one at this very moment"

Yes no confidence votes are possible. A no confidence vote with the war still underway is inconceivable in Israel, however.

After the war Likud will probably submit a no confidence resolution. What happens is unclear. Peretz and Labour will maneuver to get Olmert out, but wont want Bibi in power. Some Kadimaniks, like Lipni, will want Olmert out, but, having taken a more dovish line, wont support either Bibi OR Peretz. Peres and Ramon will stand ideologically WITH Olmert, although they may maneuver for personal power. And its quite possible when all is investigated, that Olmert wont look that bad, making the best of a bad situation.

I doubt Bibi will take power short of a new election, even if Kadima splinters, I dont think the votes are there. If theres a new election all bets are off.
Posted by liberalhawk 2006-08-11 10:31||   2006-08-11 10:31|| Front Page Top

#18 "I think GWB hasn't seen enough cards to call. The peace plan is just another way to say, "I'll take two ..." and wait to see what happens. For sure, even if this 'plan' were to be approved tomorrow by the UNSC (hah), it would take weeks to be implemented. Let's see what develops."

I would agree that whatever plan is passed, thats not the end of the game, its just setting up for the next round (of political maneuvering, and maybe war)
Posted by liberalhawk 2006-08-11 10:33||   2006-08-11 10:33|| Front Page Top

#19 Israeli fumbling has limited US options. What else could Bush/Rice/Bolton done than what they've done so far?

Israel has huge problems. Their enemy vastly outnumbers them, is currently emboldened by petrodollars, is too zealous and crazed to be deterred by their numerous defeats, and has a demographic bulge of young, underemployed males.
So Israel, hampered by being a civilized country, lurches from attempting to quell the danger by strong military action to attempting to do it by withdrawals and peace talks.

The mood in Israel at the time of the last election was to try the withdrawal method, not only putting in Olmert, but giving more votes than expected to Peretz's Labor. In effect, Israel voted for the kind of fumbling and putting PR before military necessity it experienced. Although the eventual upshot may be a call for Olmert's head (though not literally as in Islam), the Israeli public has itself to blame for voting for a government of wishful thinkers. My sympathy is with them because they just want to live sane, normal lives, but unfortunately, they are not in a sane, normal neighborhood.

Posted by Odysseus 2006-08-11 10:35||   2006-08-11 10:35|| Front Page Top

#20 It would be too easy to infer that Bush and Condi and Ohmert actually see something bigger coming down the road and are avoiding the impulse to tie down any additional IDF forces in southern Lebanon.

But that would mean some sort of largescale activity from the other side that indicates a prelude to other things. Syria and Iran do not appear to be mobilizing.

So either the IDF is not ready or Ohmert has wobbled, and Bush or Condi seek peace in our time.It boggles the mind that a Lieberman primary loss would push GW to the left of Kerry.

"Ari, Ari, wake up! Ohmert's in a coma!"
Posted by john">john  2006-08-11 10:54||   2006-08-11 10:54|| Front Page Top

#21 The more I think about this, Ohmert has decided he does not want to destroy Hezbollah. He expects the UN to stop the missiles.

Bush and Condi are just trying to put a fallback plan in place to save Israel. If Ohmert really wanted to deal with the issue, I bet that Bush would him, and Condi would provide diplomatic cover for whatever the IDF did.
Posted by john">john  2006-08-11 11:01||   2006-08-11 11:01|| Front Page Top

#22 "Israel voted for the kind of fumbling and putting PR before military necessity it experienced. Although the eventual upshot may be a call for Olmert's head (though not literally as in Islam), the Israeli public has itself to blame for voting for a government of wishful thinkers. My sympathy is with them because they just want to live sane, normal lives, but unfortunately, they are not in a sane, normal neighborhood."

Unfortunately for Israel PR is part of strategic necessity.

Also, whatever happens in Lebanon, theres no good strategy on offer involving staying IN the West Bank.

Posted by liberalhawk 2006-08-11 11:01||   2006-08-11 11:01|| Front Page Top

#23 The muslim nazis will push it too far and Israel will do what is necessary and prevail. But not will the present leadership or the familiar names passed around.
Posted by SamAdamsky 2006-08-11 11:16||   2006-08-11 11:16|| Front Page Top

#24 LH, I agree with you that "unfortunately for Israel PR is part of strategic necessity." But other factors are part of strategic necessity as well. The reported unused IDF battle plan, if true, seemed to make strategic sense. A strike on the Hizbollah command facility in Beruit before they went underground with a chance of getting Nasrullah and then landings and paratroop drops north of Hizbollah strongholds with the idea of cutting them off. The slower method actually used doesn't actually win over world public opinion or governments in France, Russia, etc. In fact opposition to Israel can be depended on to rise the longer a conflict lasts.

In regard to the West Bank -- Israel withdrew from Lebanon and Gaza and was rewarded with missile fire from Lebanon and Gaza. Israel didn't withdraw from the West Bank and, guess what, no missiles from there.
Posted by Odysseus 2006-08-11 11:48||   2006-08-11 11:48|| Front Page Top

#25 Yup, Im not saying a unilateral withdrawl from the West Bank now is feasible. But I also dont see reoccupation of the west bank as a good idea.
Posted by liberalhawk 2006-08-11 11:52||   2006-08-11 11:52|| Front Page Top

#26 and again, Odys, afaict Olmert really believed, based on the intell available to him, that his method would NOT take that long, and so it wasnt worth the added risks of the more aggressive approach.

I dont think its possible to tell from here what intell was available to Olmert, or what the basis for his strategic decisions was.

Im not saying his position looks good, but I would await the inevitable post-war commision.
Posted by liberalhawk 2006-08-11 11:55||   2006-08-11 11:55|| Front Page Top

#27 Israel is cranking up the ground offensive to full tilt according to an AP alert just sent in. Looks like we'll find out what the IDF can do when it really tries.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-08-11 11:57||   2006-08-11 11:57|| Front Page Top

#28 I think thats being done to put pressure on the UNSC to ignore Arab quibbles and to pass the US-French resolution. If a ceasefire passes, and they attack anyway, I for one will be surprised.
Posted by liberalhawk 2006-08-11 12:13||   2006-08-11 12:13|| Front Page Top

#29 "I think this has Rice's stamp on it. She's no more useful than Madeleine Halfbright."

Nah, she learned at the feet of the master: Colin I'm-so-moderate-I-don't-stand-for-anything Powell.
Posted by mcsegeeek1 2006-08-11 12:31||   2006-08-11 12:31|| Front Page Top

#30 [EM]Their enemy vastly outnumbers them, is currently emboldened by petrodollars....[/EM]

Even Sharon once said the arabs got the oil but we have the matches.

Better this particular set of leaders do not make any definative moves.
Posted by SamAdamsky 2006-08-11 12:38||   2006-08-11 12:38|| Front Page Top

#31 Condi, like Colin Powell before her, is the institutional advocate for diplomacy in the U.S. government. It's her job to do the diplomacy dance. She's doing her job.

This administration has a standard offensive play that it's used twice, and appears to be using again: make 'em an offer they can't accept.

2001: The US demands that the Taliban turn over all al-Q in Afghanistan, or else. The Taliban refuse, as they must, since Binny won't go quietly--which is no shock, because the terms of the offer were specifically designed to be unacceptable. US goes in, Talibunnies get stomped, one of the world's worst tyrranies is reduced to an ineffectual insurgency.

2003: The US demands that Saddam leave power as a condition of leaving him alive. Saddam refuses, of course--no tyrant ever renounces the throne while breathing. As expected, the US invades, Saddam is out of power, yanked from his spider hole, and faces a date with the noose. Iraq is still a work in progress, but there's no gainsaying that one of the world's worst tyrranies has been put out of business.

It looks to me like we're seeing the same play here. Whatever the ceasefire offer might be, it will be deliberately designed to be unacceptable to Hezbollah, or to the French, or to one of the other permanent members of the UNSC--and it will, therefore, fail.

As planned.
Posted by Mike 2006-08-11 14:24||   2006-08-11 14:24|| Front Page Top

#32 UAn uacceptable offer to Hezb'Allah or to Israel?
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-08-11 15:50||   2006-08-11 15:50|| Front Page Top

#33 It won't be unacceptable to France 'cause they helped write. If France likes it, Hez-B likes it. That leaves Olmert. He's already played his hand. He's done. He accepts as well. Game over. Someone please, tell me I'm wrong.
Posted by Rex Mundi 2006-08-11 16:10||   2006-08-11 16:10|| Front Page Top

#34 "It won't be unacceptable to France 'cause they helped write. If France likes it, Hez-B likes it"

Thats simply not the case.

Note - its also possible Hezb wont like it, will accept it anyway, then proceed to subvert it on the ground. Thats where things become problematic.
Posted by liberalhawk 2006-08-11 16:28||   2006-08-11 16:28|| Front Page Top

#35 Good point LH...yet the end result is the same and that's truly to their liking. Heard in another thread that IDF is moving in...hope that's the case and I hope it sticks.
Posted by Rex Mundi 2006-08-11 16:43||   2006-08-11 16:43|| Front Page Top

#36 Now Fox is saying Olmert is agreeing to the "deal", and tanks that rolled north an hour ago have turned around... WTF is going down, and how can this be a win-win for anybody I am pulling for?
Posted by Capsu 78 2006-08-11 17:22||   2006-08-11 17:22|| Front Page Top

#37 Nooooooooo, not again!
Posted by Bobby 2006-08-11 17:36||   2006-08-11 17:36|| Front Page Top

#38 It's a huge win for Hez-B and the Mullahs - a horrendous defeat for the West. Make no mistake...this is a major defeat.
Posted by Rex Mundi 2006-08-11 19:01||   2006-08-11 19:01|| Front Page Top

#39 It's an invitation to Osama and his friends to gloat over the weakness of Israel and the USA.

And to prepare the next attacks.

Israel is doomed. We've just seen the world take a giant step towards a nuclear war. We could have destroyed Syria and Iran now -- instead hundreds of millions will die in the next few years.
Posted by Kalle 2006-08-11 20:07||   2006-08-11 20:07|| Front Page Top

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