Article

2008-08-05 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Iran able to close Strait of Hormuz easily: radio

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Posted by Steve White 2008-08-05 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11143 views ] Top

#1 IRNA > seems IRAN is claiming to had successfully tested a 300-km, ostensibly anti-naval?, advanc weapon; + IRGC General Jafari > In case of war, Iran intends to use any all Offensive, Defensive, and Other Capabilities-Means at its disposal, and will attempt to wage a PROLONGED CONFLICT???

Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-08-05 00:24|| 2008-08-05 00:24|| Front Page Top

#2 The obvious solution is to move Iran away from the Straits of Hormuz. I recall that area was historically part of Oman and further north and east is Baluchistan.

Posted by phil_b 2008-08-05 02:05|| 2008-08-05 02:05|| Front Page Top

#3 Yes they can - but for how long?

C301 and other ASM batteries have a very short lifespan for their radars vs HARM missiles.

Posted by OldSpook 2008-08-05 03:29|| 2008-08-05 03:29|| Front Page Top

#4 One assumes that Iran would not have a navy, air force or shore batteries after a few days. Is there some secret plan?

Posted by Keystone 2008-08-05 08:19|| 2008-08-05 08:19|| Front Page Top

#5 They claim to have a secret weapon as part of their secret plan.

Posted by Danielle 2008-08-05 08:47|| 2008-08-05 08:47|| Front Page Top

#6 depends on how long a few days is.

Lets say 6 days. Days of zero oil from the gulf - none from Kuwait, KSA, UAE - minimal from Iraq (how much can go through Turkey or Jordan?) Of course none from Iran, indefinitely.

Add to that whatever havoc Hezb can do abroad in places like Nigeria or Angola to interfere with oil. And maybe Chavez pitching in by holding back oil for a few days.

What does that do to world oil markets? How much panic in the financial sector?

Iran is betting that that acts as a deterrent.

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-05 09:14|| 2008-08-05 09:14|| Front Page Top

#7 Note, im not saying that the USN cant get SOME oil through - I am emphasizing how essential the actions of the USN are, and that its not simply a matter of taking our time and crushing Iranian forces along the coast.

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-05 09:16|| 2008-08-05 09:16|| Front Page Top

#8 I hope they attempt a demostration of their 'closure' abilities. This SHOULD be the trigger for our 'closure' of their nuclear facilities.

Posted by Besoeker 2008-08-05 09:47|| 2008-08-05 09:47|| Front Page Top

#9 Once you pass the straits there is nowhere to run, you are in a big swimming pool. Our fleet could feasibly chase them down and sink every last one of their boats. Thereby eliminating the chance of that reoccurring. And I hope we wouldn't have to do it by ourselves, there are a lot of other countries that need that oil too. Countries with navies that should help.

Posted by Vinegar Ebbavilet3802 2008-08-05 09:50|| 2008-08-05 09:50|| Front Page Top

#10 How would Russia and China be able to support them politically from then on if they closed the Straits of Hormuz? Most countries import oil, most oil comes out of the straights. And how much would it really affect us, Canada is our biggest supplier, Mexico is right here, Venezuela can't afford to stop selling, not even for a couple of days. And once Hugo sees the ass-kicking that the Iranians are getting he wont want in on that anyway.

Posted by bigjim-ky 2008-08-05 09:53|| 2008-08-05 09:53|| Front Page Top

#11 I bet they could close it for a week and keep enough fear going as the USN and Marines mop up the Iranian coast for another two weeks and really drive up the cost of oil.

After that... not so much. We could see $5-6 a gallon gas for a couple months and it would hurt, but not kill us. Mullahs on the other hand, would be hurt and dead.

Posted by DarthVader 2008-08-05 09:54|| 2008-08-05 09:54|| Front Page Top

#12 I'd happily pay the $5-6 per gallon just to put an end to Iranian bluster and threats.

Posted by Besoeker 2008-08-05 09:57|| 2008-08-05 09:57|| Front Page Top

#13 They won't be able to close anything if the entire country is a glowing glass parking lot.

Posted by Parabellum 2008-08-05 10:07|| 2008-08-05 10:07|| Front Page Top

#14 2-4 days.

Posted by OldSpook 2008-08-05 11:29|| 2008-08-05 11:29|| Front Page Top

#15 We don't really want to glaze the Iranians, they are far more westernized than the average Arab or Paki. We do want to take out their weapons and 'leadership' and religion of blood, the real enemy.

Posted by wxjames 2008-08-05 12:30|| 2008-08-05 12:30|| Front Page Top

#16 big jim = oil is a global commodity. If the world supply is unavailable, that will drive the price up, and Venezuala and Canada will sell to the highest bidder. Anyway the real danger is not just what people have to pay for oil, but the danger to the world financial system.

As for Russia, as an oil exporter they would be DELIGHTED. China wouldnt be though. But what could they do about it?

Old Spook - well thats not so bad then. Seriously, if the USN can open the straights withing a couple of days, the world oil markets could handle it, I think.

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-05 14:11|| 2008-08-05 14:11|| Front Page Top

#17 Big deal. The question is: how quick could it be reopened.

Halting oil supplies is an act of war.

Posted by Chunky Phese7222 2008-08-05 15:03|| 2008-08-05 15:03|| Front Page Top

#18 think about it this way: they have ways of stopping naval traffic:

1) Air attacks. Not a factor - the local air assets will sweep their AF in a matter of hours.

2a) Surface Combatants - again, conventiaonl USN will put these at the bottom within a hours, and close thier ports with damage to facilities within a day.

2b) RHIB and other small boats - LPH and the attack helis along with sea-search radars will put a very quick end to these. Peacetime ROE has made these appear ot be effective, but in a wartime ROE, they would be like flying a Cessna to fight F-16's. Dead in a hurry. Add in destruction of port facilities to these as well.

3) DE Subs and minisubs. Hard environment due to shallowsm but blasting the hell out of things with active sonar, as well as MAD and other detection assets can make life very very short for these boats. Submarines are more crew quality dependnat than jsut about any other ship type, and the ability of Iran to train and get the sea time needed for their crews is questionable. Plus they need to be far more autonomous than the top-down structure allows. Probably get 1-2 solid attacks off and die shortly thereafter. 3 day threat.

4) Anti-Ship Missles. 2-4 days at most. Theyhave to have targeting radars to fire them and provide initial guidance. HARM makes these radars have a very short lifespan. Infrared obervation (form various assets) makes the launchers vulernable to quick counterbattery from Tomahawks with ICM. And we've been developing IR launch detection for decades as part of the early warning system form satellites down to airbreaathing sensors. Plus a launch plume is a dead giveaway to an armed predator or Reaper, which can put a hellfire into the launcher. So 2-4 days is likely.

5) Mines. This is the real joker in the deck. They could lay these long before starting a war. Of all the delays for closure, this one would probably take the longest to clear. Open lanes with MCM ships and other MCM assets, sweep harbors. 4 days or so, maybe more depending on how effective the mines are and how much MCM we can bring to bear.

Which worries me the most? Mines. MCM has always gotten the short end of the stick in every navy, so we may get hurt by these more than by any other source.

Posted by OldSpook 2008-08-05 16:46|| 2008-08-05 16:46|| Front Page Top

#19 I know from experience we know where their missile sites are, where their storage sites are, and where their radar sites are. It will take two carriers about 12 hours to take those out. Bandar Abbas is the control center - one nuke and it's nothing but a glowing armpit. Qeshm Island has some defensive missiles and a limited offensive capability, and that would be crushed. The big problem, and what may be Iran's plan, is to sink a half-dozen tankers quickly, to try to plug the Straits. It would take us some time to clear the channel, but that would have to wait until Iran's military capability was taken care of. It's not an idle threat, and we need to be very specific on what the response would be - immediate, overwhelming, and deadly.

Posted by Old Patriot">Old Patriot 2008-08-05 17:15|| http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/]">[http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/] 2008-08-05 17:15|| Front Page Top

#20 OS, and the problem with mines is that you can never be certain you've gotten all of them.
Naval ships may say "damn the torpedoes (mines) - full speed ahead". However, few civilian ships, especially oil tankers, would be willing to transit a narrow strait that might be mined.
It isn't just the mines - its the fear of mines.

Posted by Rambler in California">Rambler in California 2008-08-05 17:17|| 2008-08-05 17:17|| Front Page Top

#21 Actually Rambler the reverse might be true. IIRC from the last Iranian game closing the gulf the USN used the tankers to clear the way for the USN ships.

Posted by Hellfish 2008-08-05 19:13|| 2008-08-05 19:13|| Front Page Top

#22 Lloyds and the other insurors will cancel coverage on Gulf traffic if Iran just SAYS the Strait is closed. Without insurance few tankers will risk transit. Short-term, China is the biggest loser - and they will not be pleased with Iran. After a week or two the market will re-direct remaining accessible supply to the highest bidder. The weakest economies will totally collapse. Europe?

Posted by Glenmore">Glenmore 2008-08-05 19:19|| 2008-08-05 19:19|| Front Page Top

#23 Iran able to close Strait of Hormuz Easily!

USA able to close Iran easily, and permanently!

I think we should rename the Strait of Hormuz, The Strait of Hormel!

Posted by Lampedusa Glack5566 2008-08-05 23:09|| 2008-08-05 23:09|| Front Page Top

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