Article

2006-07-21 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Stratfor sez : The ground war has begun.

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Posted by anonymous5089 2006-07-21 12:51|| || Front Page|| [3 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Sounds like Hezbollah is setting up much like the nutters did in Fallujah. Anyone at Rantburg remember how that one turned out?

If they hope to set up an insurgency they are batty. Israel only needs to destroy the rockets and humiliate Hezbollah in order to be able to maintain face when they withdraw leaving Hezbollah as the weak horse. Baaka valley can be dealt with using airpower. IF they get rockets with that kind of range that'll be phase two but my guess is the loss of face Hezbollah is facing will cause them to regroup in Syria where they don't have to worry about Lebanese vengence.

Posted by rjschwarz 2006-07-21 14:14|| 2006-07-21 14:14|| Front Page Top

#2 Wow. Stratfor you guys rock! This came out only a day after Haaretz said the same thing! Very impressive. Let me get out my credit card...

Posted by Iblis">Iblis 2006-07-21 14:50|| 2006-07-21 14:50|| Front Page Top

#3 All that seems to be missing the 'Heroic Fighters of' and 'undefeatable' in front of the 'Hezbollah'.

Being dug in puts them in static concentration. In warfare this is not always an advantage. It means you can be surrounded, cut off, starved out and destroyed.

The Hizbu'allah or "party of god" name is all one needs to know about the orgaization. Dissassembling it is what needs to be done. Israel is the one doing it. While "experts" carp from the sidelines. Warfare is not fun and it's not easy. It entails risks.

Would these asshats prefer Israel did nothing? I am beging to thinks so.

Posted by Sock Puppet of Doom 2006-07-21 16:26|| 2006-07-21 16:26|| Front Page Top

#4 SPoD, the Japanese dug into bunkers in Iwo Jima were static and quickly became surrounded. They knew they were going to die, and their job was to make the Marines pay. We took the island but we paid in blood.

If Hezbollah is motivated enough they can do something similar in southern Lebanon. Will the Israelis pay sufficient blood? Don't know, but I know they don't particulary want to. And that's the problem.

Posted by Steve White">Steve White 2006-07-21 16:45|| 2006-07-21 16:45|| Front Page Top

#5 (quick words home for a bite then back to work)

Stratfor misses one thing: in terms of reducing fortifications and fixed positons, Israel has some new tricks they have learned from the US actions in Iraq. Startfor is assuming a MOUT model from the 90's, not a modern one. And from there come sthe operational surprise that will coutner Hezbollah's stratigic surprises and attempts to shape the battlefield.

One thing they are right on about is the Bekka. Israel MUST clean it out. And that includes interdiction within about a foot of the Syrian border (i.e over at times).

Operationally speaking if Israel needed to, they could hit the logistics points for Hezbollha in Syria and smash up some Syrian military while thy are at it. Not enough to force an occupation, but enough to smash the C3I apparatus of the Assad regime - and let them know the cost for playing proxy with Hezbollah.

The latter will become neccesary once Israel has gathered enough actionable and exposable intelligence to show Syrian direct complicity with the attacks on Israel.

I believe such evidence can be gathered, and will ultimately be the capstone for strikes on Syria's air defense, airforce and army logistics points, as well as Hama's ammo dumps, headquarters and training areas in Syria. This will happen once they secure the flank of their thrust into the Bekka and seal the area south of the Litani river., cordoning off the fortified zones that Hamas has seled themselves into.

Hezbullah has had 5 years of Iranian and Syrian support and money, and complete negligence by the Lebanses government in which to prepare this war they have initiated.

They must be destroyed, Nasrallah and all his corhorts must be killed, or if captured, summarily executed as war criminals. And their supporters in Syria and fiscal suppoerters elswhere must be made to pay the ultimate price via assasinations by the Mossad. Those rich guys want martyes, Israel will give them martyrs. But not the poor deluded fools they fund and brianwash with hatred - this time, make the money men get their skin in the game whether they like it or not. Bullets, bombs and bankruptcy shoudl be their fate - and the fate of thier families as well (because that s how Arab society works)

Posted by Oldspook 2006-07-21 17:06|| 2006-07-21 17:06|| Front Page Top

#6 Thank you Oldspook for speaking from your depth of experience and facts.

Too many people are still fighting WW2, Korea and Viet Nam. We do way more with way less now it.still paid for in blood however.

Israel isn't going to get into a Iran vs Iraq situation with Hizbu'allah.

Posted by Sock Puppet of Doom 2006-07-21 17:19|| 2006-07-21 17:19|| Front Page Top

#7 It's very difficult to hide, w/o plugging them up, tunnel entrances from infrared optics like those on tanks. The same tanks can then take out the tunnels. If the tunnels are plugged up, a thorough search by airborne ground penetrating radar and infantry will find them.

Posted by ed 2006-07-21 17:39|| 2006-07-21 17:39|| Front Page Top

#8 If Hezbollah is motivated enough they can do something similar in southern Lebanon. Will the Israelis pay sufficient blood? Don't know, but I know they don't particulary want to. And that's the problem.

It was one of your generals who said that the purpose of a soldier is not to die but to help the fellow on the other side die. Just wait a week, or so.

Posted by gromgoru 2006-07-21 21:20|| 2006-07-21 21:20|| Front Page Top

#9 Bit tactical problem for Hezbollah not mentioned in the above article: water.

August. Utilities shut off. No electricity for water pumps or treatment plants. Israelis can supply thier own water.

Thats the problem with living in a hole: you're in a hole.

If thye run generators, the IR gives it away, boom go the gennies from a bomb.

Hezbollah is going to get VERY thirsty in a coupel weeks if they get bypassed, cut off and cordonded.

The only hard part is that Israel will have to take missle fire for longer.

Posted by Oldspook 2006-07-21 21:50|| 2006-07-21 21:50|| Front Page Top

#10 Iff my instincts on Israel's alleged "buffer zone" strategy is correct, Israel will also control the most + best of Lebanon's natural water systems, which in turn will eventually force the terror groups to seek formal supplies from Syria-Iran, which Israel + USA + NATO/Allies will be able to detect vv SATWAR.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2006-07-21 22:36|| 2006-07-21 22:36|| Front Page Top

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