Article

2006-07-19 Iraq

Turks: Northern Iraq Military Option On The Table

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Posted by Steve White 2006-07-19 00:00|| || Front Page|| [4 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Don't push your luck.

Posted by Thrineck Theans9272 2006-07-19 00:06|| 2006-07-19 00:06|| Front Page Top

#2 Exactly, I remember their help with the 4th ID.

Posted by Danking70 2006-07-19 01:12|| 2006-07-19 01:12|| Front Page Top

#3 Just give them what they want and they'll stop.

Posted by anonymous2u 2006-07-19 01:29|| 2006-07-19 01:29|| Front Page Top

#4 This is the EU's fault : the EU pressured Turkey's military into accepting an unacceptably Islamic party as the new government. Since that point, Turkey's decisions regarding Iraq, the US, and its best interests have been tainted by the Islamist views brought into the government by the ruling party. And yes, at this point, the Turks might actually be that stupid.

Posted by Shieldwolf 2006-07-19 02:55|| 2006-07-19 02:55|| Front Page Top

#5 Yup. The PKK will stop just like Hamas or Hizballa would stop. A terrorist is a terrorist & should be delt with as such. Don't confuse fighting terrorism and Turkey's actions w/r to allowing the 4th ID on their ground. I don't agree with Turkey's actions but that is no excuse to give PKK a pass.

Posted by Throger Thains8048 2006-07-19 03:00|| 2006-07-19 03:00|| Front Page Top

#6 Have fun with the IED's Turkey. They're a blast!

Posted by Destro in Indiana 2006-07-19 05:44|| 2006-07-19 05:44|| Front Page Top

#7 If Turkey can restrain its actions to short, breif missions accurately targetted against Kurds behaving as terrorists, I don't see that the US has a grievance, since neither the US nor Iraqi authorities are dealing with the situation. In fact, within limits, it MAY be better for all if it is Turkey taking the action.
That said, it would be even better if Turkey could do something about the conditions that are fostering their 'Kurdish problem', but that's not likely to happen.

Posted by glenmore">glenmore 2006-07-19 07:48|| 2006-07-19 07:48|| Front Page Top

#8 it always amazes me how everyone continues to underestimate Turkey's intentions. Get a clue. They are aggressive and Erdogan is a little Hitler wanting to expand his empire. Like Hezbollah, the fact that it's an irrational desire won't stop him from continually pushing and pushing and pushing until he is stopped.

Yes, the PKK should be dealt with as terrorists. But Erdogan has his delusions of grandeur set on those oil fields. Go and and scoff. I'll say I told you so later.

Posted by 2b 2006-07-19 08:30|| 2006-07-19 08:30|| Front Page Top

#9 Jim Geraghty, who lives in Ankara, posts at NRO:

I have to dissent from Michael Rubin's assessment that it is "fever pitch" in Ankara right now. Sure, there's a lot of table-pounding rhetoric. Maybe I'm growing cynical, but the Turkish government has been threatening to take additional action to eliminate PKK terrorists in Iraq since I arrived here 16 months ago. I'll believe it when I see it.

The ruling AKP party likes saying this, because they get to look tough on PKK terrorists, and also look like they're standing up to the United States. Today's latest example:

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan rapped the United States on Tuesday for tolerating Israel's attacks on its enemies in Lebanon while refusing to allow Ankara to crush Kurdish rebels hiding in northern Iraq.

Erdogan is under mounting domestic pressure to get tough with the rebels, who have killed 16 Turkish security personnel in separate attacks over the past week.

"The way they look at terror there (in Israel) and in Turkey is not the same. They show tolerance towards country A (fighting terrorism) and show a different approach to country B. This is unacceptable," Erdogan said.

He did not mention the United States or Israel by name but it was clear to whom he was referring. Erdogan, whose roots are in political Islam, has previously criticised Israel's actions.

Erdogan also repeated hints that Turkey might send troops across the border into Iraq to tackle the rebels if U.S. and Iraqi troops continued to ignore Ankara's demands to act.

Whatever the inclinations of Turkey's political leadership, the Turkish military is not foolish, and no one wants a rerun of the infamous incident on July 4, 2003, where Turkish soldiers were mistaken for insurgents, captured and detained by U.S. soldiers (outraging Turkish opinion). The Turkish military has had stronger and more stable relations with their U.S. counterparts than the political leaders, and I would be shocked if the Pentagon didn't get a warning that the Turks were going to cross the border.

My guess of the most likely scenario is that nothing happens - or more specifically, that no Turkish military forces cross over into Iraq. The next most likely would be some sort of quick in-and-out strike on a suspected PKK camp or base in Northern Iraq, with U.S. and Iraqi support. I would be supremely surprised if the Turkish military decided to cross the border without warning, or concern for the consequences.

Posted by Mike 2006-07-19 16:06|| 2006-07-19 16:06|| Front Page Top

#10 That said, it would be even better if Turkey could do something about the conditions that are fostering their 'Kurdish problem', but that's not likely to happen.

Exactly the entire point behind Kurdish resistance in North Kurdistan. People in the West have no idea how bad the situation has been for 8 decades.

If Israel had committed a nanofraction of the atrocities against the Palestinians that the Turkish state has committed, and continues to commit, against Kurds, then there might be some justification for the media's obsession with Israel/Palestine.

Israel has also sat down to negotiations with the Arabs, something that Turkey has never done with Kurds, not even with legal Kurdish political parties in North Kurdistan. Instead, the Turkish state has shut down every single Kurdish party that has ever existed, and is in the process of shutting down the current legal party. So there is no open political avenue that Kurds can take in order to make changes.

For these reasons, not even going into detail about the gross human rights abuses that Turkey has inflicted on Kurds, the PKK enjoys the support of the majority of Kurds living under Turkish oppression. PKK will continue to enjoy this support.

As for AKP, they are now being backed by all the opposition parties, a result of the big meeting with the pashas on Monday. Turkey is a military state, not a democracy, and nothing happens that the pashas do not approve.

That is also why you see the Islamists out protesting Israel/Lebanon. It is permitted by the pashas. Meanwhile, anyone with a legitimate grievance against the state will be arrested, tortured and imprisoned.

But South Kurdistan will not be invaded until after August, when Buyukanit Pasha assumes the throne, unless the current outcry against him becomes too great and he does not accept the position, something which would be a first in Turkish history.

A Wan court today pointed once again in Buyukanit's direction over the Semdinli bombing.

Posted by Azad 2006-07-19 17:37|| 2006-07-19 17:37|| Front Page Top

#11 Azad, can you please explain last 2 paragraphs? I admit I have no idea what you are saying there. Thx.

Posted by twobyfour 2006-07-19 17:52|| 2006-07-19 17:52|| Front Page Top

#12
Personal experience: the Kurds "feel like" Americans in terms of their desire for Liberty, open market economy, etc. They are our natural allies in the region, and damn solid fighters. They are who we shoudl be helping inside of Iran, and we should be pushing Turkey HARD to allow full civil rights to the Kurds in Eastern Turkey. Thats my opinion based on experience with them and their areas.

Noew on to the article:

The reason the Turks have a problem with the Kurds is that they treat them like shit, like the Nazis did the populations whose territory the occupied (think Balkans WW2). They are abusive of them, ban their culture, destroy their political parties, and smash any attempts by the Kurds to stand up to the dictatorship in Ankara.

The Turks stop the human rights violations and violent supression of the Kurds, and support for the PKK will melt.

If they don't? Well then the Turks deserve the rebellion they get (not to excuse the Terrorist acts of the PKK though - they need to really chose only military and political targets).

The Turks had an opportunity to help us and act as an ally - allow the 4th ID thru, and join the attack, which would have put Turkish troops guarding large areas of Northern Iraqi border on both sides of it. Golden opportunity to clean the area up, but the Turkish government thought it was better to play Islamist Asshole

Now they pay the price for their dishonest and disloyal behavior.

Screw the Turks. - they come over the border, we should back up one of the regional Kurdish brigades with US air power to smash the Turkish incursion and hand them their asses as they limp back across the border.

Mark my words: the Turks make border incursions in any real way, they will be hit HARD with the local Peshmerga units holding them in place until the Iraqi Army (the best units are in the North anyway) roll up and defeat them in detail.

I hope the Turkish government is ready to deal with having their troops be killed and the survivors become POWs held in Iraq. Because that will be the outcome - we've rearmed the Kurds and they are HIGHLY effective militarily in their own region, with solid command and control, and inherent logistic advantages of being on thier home territory with a supportive population. Even the non-Kurd Arabs in the region would rally to the defense.

Turkey better watch out - the answer they get may be "Bring It" from the Kurds (and the Iraqi government) and a silent cold stare from the US.

Posted by Oldspook 2006-07-19 19:20|| 2006-07-19 19:20|| Front Page Top

#13 Sorry, twobyfour.

Yaşar Büyükanıt (Kemalist hardliner) is the current Land Forces commander, scheduled to takeover as chief of the general staff (Currently: Hilmi Özkök--friendly with AKP, hence moderate as pashas/generals go) in August. This has been the plan for some time, but there have been recent cracks in the plan.

Büyükanıt Pasha was indicted for involvement with the Şemdinli bombing (Nov. 2005), after which the Wan (Van) prosecutor was sacked from his job. Today, the final verdict on the convictions of two of the bombers (TSK soldiers who were close to Büyükanıt) was released to the public. You can read something of that here.

This means involvement in the whole Deep State thing (google "Susurluk" "Semdinli" and "Council of State attack" for more info). There was also the recent resignation of the pasha that Büyükanıt had appointed to head the TSK's Land War Academy because the Jandarma/Police taped his cell phone conversations with some floozy, who most likely is also involved with the Deep State. More on that here.

They're starting the rumors that Büyükanıt Pasha will resign because he can't take the heat of all the recent scandals. Check this. By the way, that's a nice piece of open source intel for the upcoming changing of the guard.

I just pulled all of those articles from one source and from today, but you could do a search engine on any key terms and find similar information.

I say that the resignation of Büyükanıt would be a first in Turkish history because it's true. They say that the chief of staff is "nominated" by the government, but who tells the government who to nominate? The pashas.

Hope that helps.

Posted by Azad 2006-07-19 19:42|| 2006-07-19 19:42|| Front Page Top

#14 We needed Turkey during the Cold War. What exactly do they bring to the table these days?

Posted by Iblis">Iblis 2006-07-19 19:48|| 2006-07-19 19:48|| Front Page Top

#15 Iblis -
They control the straits to the Black Sea and the new pipeline crossing to the Caspian Sea. In other words, access to the very substantial oil fields of Central Asia.
They are also another border with Iran - better to have airfields and access in Turkey, as an unworthy and inadequate ally than have them forced into some kind of alliance with Iran.
That's two things they bring to the table. You can probably think of more. Bad as Turkey may seem, it can get a whole lot worse.

Posted by Glenmore">Glenmore 2006-07-19 21:35|| 2006-07-19 21:35|| Front Page Top

#16 "but the Turkish government thought it was better to play Islamist Asshole"

You can thank the U.S. State Department for encouraging that with their manipulative actions, like leaking negotiation issues with Turkey to the media.

Posted by Fordesque 2006-07-19 21:46|| 2006-07-19 21:46|| Front Page Top

#17 The reason the Turks have a problem with the Kurds is that they treat them like shit, like the Nazis did the populations whose territory the occupied (think Balkans WW2). They are abusive of them, ban their culture, destroy their political parties, and smash any attempts by the Kurds to stand up to the dictatorship in Ankara.

The Turks stop the human rights violations and violent supression of the Kurds, and support for the PKK will melt.

You are absolutely correct, Oldspook. I might add, that if the atrocities you mention had never occured, there would never have been a need for PKK.

The situation is not moving in the direction you suggest here, but is moving quickly in the opposite direction. There is a de facto state of emergency (OHAL--if you remember anything about the dirty war before) already imposed in "The Region" and discussions in Ankara have already brought up the idea of calling an actual OHAL. This is confirmed by people I know personally in "The Region" and by my friends who are from "The Region" but outside of it, through the people they know. When I was there last year, it was clear to me that everything was moving in this direction as well.

Since last year, HPG has had an enormous increase in the number of recruits which they have had to turn away because of lack of facilities. After the uprising in Amed (Diyarbakir) at the end of March, many more have gone to the mountains.

HPG has been targeting military targets, a carryover from PKK, January, 1995, when the PKK declared its targeting intentions publicly. Last year, at least, HPG began using landmines as remote-controlled bombs and over the weekend an HPG representative at Qandîl and KONGRA-GEL head, Zubeyir Aydar, in Geneva signed the Anti-personnel Mine Deed of Commitment, a non-state actor's version of the Ottawa Treaty.

I will not explain the details of why it makes sense for a guerrilla force to use remote-controlled bombs as opposed to landmines, because the benefits are obvious. Obvious too is the avoidance of "poisoning" the land of your own people.

If Turkey invades South Kurdistan, they will not only meet hostile pêşmerge, but an entire hostile civilian population, many of whom told me last year that they would go off with the pêşmerge to fight Turks. Also, since Cemal Bayik recently stated that if there were a fight for Kerkuk, HPG would join with pêşmerge to fight, one should expect that an invasion of the South will see pêşmerge AND HPG fighting Turks. And the Turks remember how PKK dogged them in the 90's when they invaded the South.

A Turk does not know why he fights; A Kurd knows very well.

May the TSK have plenty of body bags.

Posted by Azad 2006-07-19 22:10|| 2006-07-19 22:10|| Front Page Top

#18 Azad, I was "active" in that region when we were supporitng the no-fly zone before I retired the last time. I know the people you talk of, I trained some. I feel closer to them than I do just about any Arab I have ever met. Of all the peopel in SW Asia, Persia and Arabia, the Kurds are where I felt most at home.

And they are also the people whose story has been least told here in the west - at least the Armenians had good PR here in the US, which means good global reach. The Kurds really need to get the word out about thier success economically under the no-fly umbrealla, and thier big jumps in Iraq since liberation. And yes, for thhe Kurds the US take-down of the Baathists/Tikiritis was a true liberation. All one needs to do is cross the bridge from Turkey to Kurdistani-Iraq, and it is like a flower blooms. the rods are paved well, peopel are fed, business is good, and people actually smile!

In an ideal world, the Kurds woudl have us helping them liberate Kurdistan from the Persians (NW of the Pars plateau), Syrians (NE of the Euphrates) and, yes, the Turks (SE Turkey almost to the Caspian).

God willing, you will get your nation one day. And thank God your peopel are smart enough to realize that you can only get it yourself. Almost everyone sells out the Kurds for political expediency. Even, regretfully, the US.

Once Iran is removed as a threat, then the time will be right.

All that aside, the Turkish FM is, as we way in the US, "talking out his ass". Turkey cannot afford the politcal and military damage they would take if they were to operate cross-border against the Kurds in Iraq.

RB - you know me, Im never soft on terrs, and the PKK has some bloody bastards in it that need to be killed. But the grievences that power the PKK are not self-inflicted like those of the Fatah, Hamas and Hezbollah.

All the Kurds want are rights anyone else has: to be left alone to worship work and raise a family, to be able to vote freely for the party or candidates of their choice, to make thier own democratic laws, and to maintain their culture as they have in the region for a millenium or more.

The Turks have crushed this at every turn, uch of the time brutally. They have brought this insurgency on themselves by trying to suppress democracy of the Kurds.

Thats my opinion. Feel free to differ. Bur realize that the US Government has in many areas covered for Turkey because they are of more use to us than the Kurds. Our historical behavior in this area has not been sterling - go back and look at the Hmong in Laos, Camobdia and Vietnam and how they got screwed by us after being staunch allies.

So no, the PKK shoudl nto be doing the htings they are doing, but Turkey is sadly mistaken if they think they will be able to insert a military force into Norther Iraq to any extent - they will get manhandled by the Peshmerga and the Iraq Army units in the region: units that are mainly Kurdish, well trained, well led, well equipped, well supplied and defending their homes form a historical supressor; not the sort of force an army as mediocre as the Turks can engage without taking large casualties.

Posted by Oldspook 2006-07-19 23:56|| 2006-07-19 23:56|| Front Page Top

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