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2006-07-18 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
IDF needs another week to alleviate Hizbullah threat - %40 already done
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Posted by 3dc 2006-07-18 09:49|| || Front Page|| [10 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 Very bad news:

Forty to fifty percent of Hizbullah's military capability has been destroyed in the six days of the IDF counter-attack following last Wednesday's Hizbullah raid in northern Israel, The Jerusalem Post has learned.

The IDF, it is understood, believes it needs another week or so minimum to achieve its military goals in terms of alleviating Hizbullah's capacity to threaten Israel.

Earlier, Deputy IDF Chief of General Staff Maj.-Gen. Moshe Kaplinsky said in an interview to Army Radio that the offensive against Hizbullah would reach its completion "in a matter of weeks."

Kaplinsky said a massive ground incursion was not necessary at the moment.

"At this stage we do not think we have to activate massive ground forces into Lebanon but if we have to do this, we will. We are not ruling it out," Kaplinski told Israel Radio.


These guys seem to have drunk the RMA koolaid even more than Rummy's worst assistant. How can they possibly estimate that forty to fifty percent of Hizbullah's military capability has been destroyed when they haven't put a boot on the ground? 40-50% of their targets may no longer exist where they did, but that does not mean they are destroyed.

It also demonstrates a shocking misunderstanding of what constitutes military capability. A weapons warehouse is not a capability, a man with a stone is. In no sense have the Israelis, based on the limited information available to us, destroyed or defeated the human capability of HesbAllan. Israel needs to kill lots of Hesb members. LOTS. They have to make sure that the ones who survive know they have been defeated and know they never want to experience something like it again. Make them go home and tell the young boys, "It's not worth it, let's learn to live in peace." Until that time comes, it's just apply, wash, rinse, repeat.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-07-18 10:06||   2006-07-18 10:06|| Front Page Top

#2 NS presumes to tell the IDF what they have accomplished. He does, after all, have PRESS reports to rely on in doing this!!

IDF only has intel assets in Lebanon, plus classified info. And G*d knows they don't understand what constitutes military capability!! Why there are DECADES of them domonstrating no knowledge of this subject whatsoever.

Pitiful, no?

Moreover, NS has years of observing from a distance, whereas the Israelis only have decades of making hard existential tradeoffs up close and personal.

They're lucky they have your advice, NS.

Of course, what you might mean is that you fear they are not aiming to wipe out Hizbullah as a whole, just to create some breathing space and a cordon sanitaire until they can force the international community to actually back up UN resolutions. Maybe they even think that a little country cannot do this themselves against oil-funded groups without bankrupting their economy and that in any case those who wish to benefit from the demise of terror groups should also chip in rather than just letting Israel do the hard and dangerous work and take the blame.

Just a theory .....

(and yea, that's sarcastic but it's been a hot day and while it's one thing to be worried, it's another thing to suggest Isreal doesn't get it about terrorism. Pfeh.)
Posted by awed and amazed 2006-07-18 10:26||   2006-07-18 10:26|| Front Page Top

#3 I hope this is just feel good quotes for domestic consumption, and not an operating assumption.
Posted by Mike N. 2006-07-18 10:27||   2006-07-18 10:27|| Front Page Top

#4 Hizbullah has to run out of rockets sooner or later, even if Israel doesn't take them out. The worst possible thing right now would be for Hizbullah to stop the rocket attacks and return the hostages. Israel would be pressured to leave them alone with much of their arsenal intact.
Posted by Darrell 2006-07-18 10:48||   2006-07-18 10:48|| Front Page Top

#5 Another week and this thing is not going to be over. I the the title is misleading because it doesn't say from whos perspective or what scope.
Posted by Jesing Ebbease3087 2006-07-18 10:55||   2006-07-18 10:55|| Front Page Top

#6 There's plenty more rockets in Iran for HesbAllan.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-07-18 11:02||   2006-07-18 11:02|| Front Page Top

#7 There's plenty more rockets in Iran for HesbAllan.

True, but the delivery may be a problem. Not all of the border access with Syria has been taken a care off, I suppose, but the major routes are blocked. Speaking of which, does anyobe remember when the 72 hours ultimatum expires?
Posted by twobyfour 2006-07-18 11:11||   2006-07-18 11:11|| Front Page Top

#8 Soon. That story only appeared one, also. I'll not be surprised to see it pass by unnoticed.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-07-18 11:19||   2006-07-18 11:19|| Front Page Top

#9 Move 10 miles into Leb and 98% of the threat is out of range. Level every building and burn the trees before leaving. Any one trying to move back in can be shelled.
Posted by ed 2006-07-18 11:23||   2006-07-18 11:23|| Front Page Top

#10 They have already sent D-9's in for the first kilometer.
Posted by 3dc 2006-07-18 11:29||   2006-07-18 11:29|| Front Page Top

#11 Damascus is a short tank ride from the Golan Heights. Wink, wink.
Oh, and take as long as you like. We of the peace keeper forces are still making lunch arrangements.
Posted by wxjames 2006-07-18 11:39||   2006-07-18 11:39|| Front Page Top

#12 #9 Move 10 miles into Leb and 98% of the threat is out of range. Level every building and burn the trees before leaving. Any one trying to move back in can be shelled.

Hope they use the US made Howitzers we gave them. Would give me such a warm feeling to know something US made is pounding Hezballah into dust.
Posted by Charles 2006-07-18 11:41||   2006-07-18 11:41|| Front Page Top

#13 If Israel sends tanks and troops to Lebanon, I hope we reposition a bunch of troops on the West of Iraq. Just to keep them guessing.
Posted by plainslow 2006-07-18 12:00||   2006-07-18 12:00|| Front Page Top

#14 A little heat coming from the western Iraqi desert would be a nice thing, If ya know what I mean.

Just daydreaming, folks. Move along now.
Posted by Alaska Paul">Alaska Paul  2006-07-18 12:16||   2006-07-18 12:16|| Front Page Top

#15 Can't get at the article right now. However, the TV reporting is that the IDF says it has destroyed about 40% of the rockets and other infrastructure in the south of Lebanon.

That's a claim that can reasonably be based on intel, I think.
Posted by lotp 2006-07-18 12:36||   2006-07-18 12:36|| Front Page Top

#16 If HisbAllan is hiding the rockets in and among houses, it would certainly be interesting to know how Israel destroyed 4-5,000 of the 10-13,000 rockets without killing a lot more civilians. If photo reconnaisance is so good, how come we had so much trouble with getting it right on Iraq? Sure, it's a smaller space and Israel has had a lot more time and humint. But I'd still want to put some boots on the ground to confirm that estimate. Especially after that C-802.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-07-18 12:43||   2006-07-18 12:43|| Front Page Top

#17 No kidding. Esp good to check on the ground in case these jerks have been digging things up in the Bekka recently.
Posted by Laurence of the Rats">Laurence of the Rats  2006-07-18 13:03||   2006-07-18 13:03|| Front Page Top

#18 Brig. Gen. Ido Nehushtan, on the Israeli general staff, said, “We have damaged Hezbollah but they still have significant operational capacity.” He noted the decline in rockets launched into Israel in the last two days — an average of 40 a day, down from initial highs of 150 — and said it was a testament to the damage caused by the Israelis.
“It will take time, it’s more than a matter of days on the military side,” he said. “We aim to change the situation and not go back to where we are"

(from Capt'ns Quarters)

I don't share NS's cynicism or negative outlook
Posted by Frank G">Frank G  2006-07-18 13:09||   2006-07-18 13:09|| Front Page Top

#19 I thought I remember Israel saying that they wanted to destroy what was valuable to Hezballah, like their weapons and infrastructure, not to necessarily take out the fighters themselves. To me, that seems about the best anyone could hope for from the air. All they have to do is to shame Iran for not putting thier own butts at risk and the whole thing may well go away, at least in the present form! :-)
Posted by gorb 2006-07-18 13:24||   2006-07-18 13:24|| Front Page Top

#20 Lots of people living in the Lebanese border lands have moved in with relatives living farther away, I expect.
Posted by trailing wife 2006-07-18 13:50||   2006-07-18 13:50|| Front Page Top

#21 Charles,

I really only watch FOXNews, but I can tell you they always have lots of pics of M109A6 155mm loadin' and firin'. It is something the media can show well without any real risk.

I heard a report that the M109 battery shown last night was a new battery to the area. I hope it wa sincremental and not replacement.
Posted by Brett 2006-07-18 14:19||   2006-07-18 14:19|| Front Page Top

#22 Nimble,
They are probably talking about the number of launchers , of which there probably are a finite number. They probably know how many there are and where they are located.

AL
Posted by Frozen Al">Frozen Al  2006-07-18 14:31||   2006-07-18 14:31|| Front Page Top

#23 Iran gives the Arabs, just enough in weapons and money to cause trouble and die for Iran. They kill two birds with one stone, so to speak. Arab's die when they fight the Jew's with inferior weapons, and they get other Arab fanatics rise up against the Jews to die for them. Someday, the Arabs will realize that.
Posted by plainslow 2006-07-18 14:45||   2006-07-18 14:45|| Front Page Top

#24 Has anyone heard anything about these launchers being remotely controlled? If so, does that mean that a guy could be sitting in his living room drinking tea when the missile in his garage starts to beep then launch, or does it mean they run about 100 feet of wire and run away when they push the button, or does it mean they can call the guy and he pushes the button when the family is out of the way?
Posted by gorb 2006-07-18 15:28||   2006-07-18 15:28|| Front Page Top

#25 IIUC, most are truck-mounted launchers
Posted by Frank G">Frank G  2006-07-18 15:33||   2006-07-18 15:33|| Front Page Top

#26 I read reports where they have found houses that have special rooms to house some kinds of missiles. Disturbing, but easy to deal with if you know they are there.
Posted by gorb 2006-07-18 16:05||   2006-07-18 16:05|| Front Page Top

#27 "Israel needs to kill lots of Hesb members. LOTS. They have to make sure that the ones who survive know they have been defeated and know they never want to experience something like it again."--Nimble Spemble

A good time to strike would be when HeadsforAllan holds one of those massive parades with hundreds of black-clad, goose-stepping Islamo-Nazis marching and Nass-asshole in the viewing stands.

About two dozen cluster bombs followed by napalm should do the job.

Posted by Lancasters Over Dresden 2006-07-18 16:26|| http://www.michaelcalderonscall.com/HomePage.asp]">[http://www.michaelcalderonscall.com/HomePage.asp]  2006-07-18 16:26|| Front Page Top

#28 awed and amazeds analysis has me quite awed. Very good.
Posted by liberalhawk 2006-07-18 16:43||   2006-07-18 16:43|| Front Page Top

#29 #4 Hizbullah has to run out of rockets sooner or later, even if Israel doesn't take them out. The worst possible thing right now would be for Hizbullah to stop the rocket attacks and return the hostages. Israel would be pressured to leave them alone with much of their arsenal intact.

Ummm, they have about 13,000 missiles and rockets of various sizes, shapes, and flavors.

According to most accounts, HeadsforAllan has fired off less 1,200 so far. They're not running out anytime soons, especially if Syria can slip a few in now and then.
Posted by Lancasters Over Dresden 2006-07-18 16:47|| http://www.michaelcalderonscall.com/HomePage.asp]">[http://www.michaelcalderonscall.com/HomePage.asp]  2006-07-18 16:47|| Front Page Top

#30 #12. something US made is already being used too pound hezbollah. Apaches
Posted by Thromort Glomoger4987 2006-07-18 16:48||   2006-07-18 16:48|| Front Page Top

#31 Hezbollah doesn't really need a large arsenal. A score of deadly hits with Zilzaal 1 and Raad 1,2 on Haifa and Tel-Aviv and the Zionist Jews will all be afflicted with shock, heart attack or cardio-vascular failure. I wonder why they have such a high propensity for this? Any ideas? You should thank Muslims that we haven't hit the petro-chemical plants in Haifa...yet. But that may change. I do hope occupied Palestine has excellent heart transplant facilities.
Posted by the Levant 2006-07-18 16:58||   2006-07-18 16:58|| Front Page Top

#32 LOL - Paleo medical talent? Didn't you know hospitals are to base Paleo snipers in? Jeebus....
Posted by Frank G">Frank G  2006-07-18 17:02||   2006-07-18 17:02|| Front Page Top

#33 Re #29: It's not just the missiles they've fired that count. There are also destroyed missiles and destroyed missile crews. Personally I doubt that Syria can deliver many new missiles under these conditions anyway.
Posted by Darrell 2006-07-18 17:08||   2006-07-18 17:08|| Front Page Top

#34 Does Hezbollah have excellent testicle transplant facilities, Levant? Yhey might want to start making use of them, as the current membership seems quite lacking in that department.
Posted by tu3031 2006-07-18 17:08||   2006-07-18 17:08|| Front Page Top

#35 occupied Palestine = Northern Israel.

Obviously they are not nearly ready to negotiate.
Posted by J. D. Lux 2006-07-18 17:12||   2006-07-18 17:12|| Front Page Top

#36 I was ignoring his reality :-)
Posted by Frank G">Frank G  2006-07-18 17:13||   2006-07-18 17:13|| Front Page Top

#37 levant has a serious case of envy re: Israeli medical capabilities. S/he ought to. The Muslim world has added bupkis - nothing - to humanity's achievements in medicine, science, engineering or anything else for the last 1000 years or so.

Whereas the Jews consistently contribute well beyond their numbers.
Posted by anti-levant 2006-07-18 17:15||   2006-07-18 17:15|| Front Page Top

#38 It seems to me that it would be fair for Israel to tack on the requirement that the remainder of those missiles are destroyed within one week by UN "forces" or no deal.

As for the heart transplant idea, Israeli doctors have all the necessary talent even if the people occupying the area of Israel that they like to call "Palestine" don't. If Hezballah does manage to hit the refinery, it won't be long before Israel makes sure there are lots of spare parts laying around to perform all kinds of transplants.
Posted by gorb 2006-07-18 17:17||   2006-07-18 17:17|| Front Page Top

#39 Levant is posting from Syria, FWIW.
Posted by lotp 2006-07-18 17:19||   2006-07-18 17:19|| Front Page Top

#40 Is that you, Assad?
Posted by Darrell 2006-07-18 17:21||   2006-07-18 17:21|| Front Page Top

#41 Do stick around and keep reading the postings here, Mr.the Levant. There is much you might learn.
Posted by trailing wife 2006-07-18 17:24||   2006-07-18 17:24|| Front Page Top

#42 #37: "The Muslim world has added bupkis - nothing - to humanity's achievements in medicine, science, engineering or anything else for the last 1000 years or so."

Now, now - don't be nasty.

The moslem Arabs have contributed the homicide bomb belt - and the buzzing prayer rug.

In light of these stellar inventions, aren't you ashamed of yourself for dissing them?
Posted by Barbara Skolaut">Barbara Skolaut  2006-07-18 17:29|| http://ariellestjohndesigns.com/page/15bk1/Home_Page.html]">[http://ariellestjohndesigns.com/page/15bk1/Home_Page.html]  2006-07-18 17:29|| Front Page Top

#43 Levant is in Syria? Cool. What are your opinions on all the happenings over there? How did your opinions on all this stuff get formed?
Posted by gorb 2006-07-18 17:32||   2006-07-18 17:32|| Front Page Top

#44 He's seething, Gorb. Shoot first and ask questions later.
Posted by Darrell 2006-07-18 17:34||   2006-07-18 17:34|| Front Page Top

#45 Maybe we can use this to start a rumor that Iran has suddenly abandonded Syria and now they're having to rethink their position! :-)
Posted by gorb 2006-07-18 17:37||   2006-07-18 17:37|| Front Page Top

#46 Maybe Hezballah thought Levant's comments weren't anti-western enough so they shot him.
Posted by gorb 2006-07-18 17:44||   2006-07-18 17:44|| Front Page Top

#47 Re #31: Actually, the heart attack rate is a lot higher in Syria than in Israel. Must be all that seething.
http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/h/heart_attack/stats-country.htm
Posted by Darrell 2006-07-18 17:47||   2006-07-18 17:47|| Front Page Top

#48 Levant must be Hezballah. He shot and ran. Someone check under the bed.
Posted by gorb 2006-07-18 18:03||   2006-07-18 18:03|| Front Page Top

#49 Don't check under the bed.
Posted by The Mossad 2006-07-18 19:42||   2006-07-18 19:42|| Front Page Top

#50 Check under the burqa?
Posted by gorb 2006-07-18 19:54||   2006-07-18 19:54|| Front Page Top

#51 Savant is in Syria, ya say?
Posted by Alaska Paul in Nikolaevsk, Alaska">Alaska Paul in Nikolaevsk, Alaska  2006-07-18 20:12||   2006-07-18 20:12|| Front Page Top

#52 Posting via there, at any rate.
Posted by lotp 2006-07-18 20:13||   2006-07-18 20:13|| Front Page Top

11:16 Muzakki
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23:32 Poison Reverse
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