Article

2006-07-16 Israel-Palestine-Jordan

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Posted by Mike 2006-07-16 19:52|| || Front Page|| [11137 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Will the Leb army use this chance to bury Hezbollah? Will the Lebanese people use this opportunity to shitcan the militia once and for all or give them quarter and hide them from the Israelis? This should be an interesting social experiment. Reading the Lebanese blogs on Pajamas, I get a feeling that Hezbollah is not as popular with the urban population as they might think they are.

Posted by bigjim-ky 2006-07-16 20:02|| 2006-07-16 20:02|| Front Page Top

#2 Will the Leb army use this chance to bury Hezbollah?

Unlikely, Fox has pointed out today that some 60% of the Lebanese army are Shia and most of those would likely refuse to act against Hizb'Allah.

Posted by AzCat 2006-07-16 20:06|| 2006-07-16 20:06|| Front Page Top

#3 The Israelis just have to make sure they don't stay long. Get the job done and get out fast.

Posted by Odysseus 2006-07-16 20:07|| 2006-07-16 20:07|| Front Page Top

#4 some 60% of the Lebanese army are Shia and most of those would likely refuse to act against Hizb'Allah.

Many are probably Hizb'Allah sympathizers and some apparently are members or cooperating, as with the use of coastal radars to guide the Iranian missile against Israel's frigate. Note that the IAF struck 2 Lebanese army bases in/around Tripoli in the north today.

Posted by lotp 2006-07-16 20:13|| 2006-07-16 20:13|| Front Page Top

#5 We'll see if Iran miscalculate when they see their client being whacked big time or whether the sit back and are seen to be of no help.

Posted by phil_b">phil_b 2006-07-16 20:19|| http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]">[http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/] 2006-07-16 20:19|| Front Page Top

#6 What does Israel gain by putting boots on the ground in Lebanon? The only thing I can see is clearing out an area for the Lebanese Army to move in as a buffer. But they aren't getting ready to coordinate with the Lebanese. I think they're going to do a Serbia on Lebanon/Hisballah.

Now setting up a forward base to do a thunder run to Damascus is another kettle of fish entirely.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-07-16 20:23|| 2006-07-16 20:23|| Front Page Top

#7 A brief incursion to destroy any Hezbollah facilities not destroyed by air especially bunkers and tunnels, to clear out arms caches, take down any infrastructure, and possibly to plant explosives and booby traps and listening devices.

They could even put in sensors that would let them quickly triangulate enemy firing positions.

Posted by Anonymoose 2006-07-16 20:33|| 2006-07-16 20:33|| Front Page Top

#8 Hardly seems worth mounting a major ground offensive with attendant risks.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-07-16 20:41|| 2006-07-16 20:41|| Front Page Top

#9 #6 NS
Destroying all the Katushas & their big brothers.
Can't do it from air without killing too many Lebanese for our only ally to condone.

Posted by gromgoru 2006-07-16 21:01|| 2006-07-16 21:01|| Front Page Top

#10 It would be a good idea for Israel not to take too many prisoners in-case some future PM would just trade them away in an exchange.

Posted by 3dc 2006-07-16 21:31|| 2006-07-16 21:31|| Front Page Top

#11 add me to the skeptics here

I don't see that much value in a land force. Sure there would be more dead Hezb, more destroyed infrustructure and some more positives, but there would be a lot of dead Israelis also, some lost equipment, etc.

Posted by mhw 2006-07-16 22:19|| http://hypocrisy-incorporated.blogspot.com/]">[http://hypocrisy-incorporated.blogspot.com/] 2006-07-16 22:19|| Front Page Top

#12 "I don't see that much value in a land force."

It absolutely pushes Hezbollah out of missile range of the Israeli cities. If Israel occupies the Southern areas, the missiles are going to stop flying into Haifa. Sure, the military might start taking missiles, but the civilians in the cities would be safe and that is ultimately the job of an army. Lebanon should learn a lesson from that.

Posted by crosspatch">crosspatch 2006-07-16 22:50|| http://crufty.blogspot.com]">[http://crufty.blogspot.com] 2006-07-16 22:50|| Front Page Top

#13 add me to those who believe ONLY a ground operation will allow them to fully degrade the terrorists in Lebanon. Mosad MUST have identified lots of potential targets...but many will available only to a determined ground force.

Posted by Justrand 2006-07-16 22:54|| 2006-07-16 22:54|| Front Page Top

#14 The missiles have a much longer range now. Israel will have to cut off their supply of longer range missiles if they want to have a small buffer zone across the bottom of Lebanon. What do you suppose this suggests? Ground forces would probably crush Hezballah, but they would eventually have to go after the source somehow . . . .

Posted by gorb 2006-07-16 22:57|| 2006-07-16 22:57|| Front Page Top

#15 "The missiles have a much longer range now."

Israel has said they want Hezbollah to redeploy North of the Litani river. That would put them roughly midway between Tyre and Sidon or roughly 25-30 km from the current border. In light of the range recently shown, Israel might want to consider a line drawn roughly from Sidon to Jazzin but a river makes a hard boundary that is easier to police.

Posted by crosspatch">crosspatch 2006-07-16 23:06|| http://crufty.blogspot.com]">[http://crufty.blogspot.com] 2006-07-16 23:06|| Front Page Top

#16 Going in 10 miles will put Israel out of range of 98% of the rockets.

Posted by ed 2006-07-16 23:06|| 2006-07-16 23:06|| Front Page Top

#17 Folks, if you think you can get it done from the air only, you are dead wrong.

To truly destroy the offensive capability of Hezbullah, and to secure a 40km buffer zone, Israel will have to put ground forces in. There is just no way around it. If you think you can find it all form the air, you don't know a damn thing about miltiary operations, especially in built-up terrain.

the second thig this does is gives the Lebanese government and army time to bitchslap the Hezbullah supporters. And no, they are not a mjority of them, just they have control of the heavy weaponry. Israel is changing that, dramatically.

Third, if needed, this gives Israel easier reach into the Bekka valley in Syria. The lay of the gorund and probable occupation areas will allow the IAF to fly basically unmolested until they het (and SEAD) the Syrian SAM sites. Once those are gone, Israel will have free reign over Syrian airspace. And I woudlnt be surprised if AWACS calls just happneed to go our since we can see everything in Syria fromthe Iraqi side.

All-in-all, this now shows what I have been ahrping on all along: the geopolitical importantce of Iraq.

If we did not have Iraq occupied, and the North (Kurdish) areas reinforce, Iran would be able to directly support Syria. But since wea re in the way, as well as a pretty well armed Iaqi military, the Syrians are on their own, and Israel knows this - they can defeat the Syrian military in detail, and shatter Hamas and Hezbollah at one blow.

I hoe, os so much, that Syria attacks and opens war with Israel - it will mean Syria will finally see its military destoryed and its central government demolished. And I also hope Iran tries to interven overland - the Kurds and a US Bridage up there woudl chew them up badly! The side effect wooudl be a rally of Iraqi's against Iranian (Perisan) invadeers, the collapse of the last Baathis regime in the region, and the death of Hama and Hezbollah as anything other than minor terrorist organizations.

Posted by Oldspook 2006-07-16 23:07|| 2006-07-16 23:07|| Front Page Top

#18 Folks, if you think you can get it done from the air only, you are dead wrong.

To truly destroy the offensive capability of Hezbullah, and to secure a 40km buffer zone, Israel will have to put ground forces in. There is just no way around it. If you think you can find it all form the air, you don't know a damn thing about miltiary operations, especially in built-up terrain.

the second thig this does is gives the Lebanese government and army time to bitchslap the Hezbullah supporters. And no, they are not a mjority of them, just they have control of the heavy weaponry. Israel is changing that, dramatically.

Third, if needed, this gives Israel easier reach into the Bekka valley in Syria. The lay of the gorund and probable occupation areas will allow the IAF to fly basically unmolested until they het (and SEAD) the Syrian SAM sites. Once those are gone, Israel will have free reign over Syrian airspace. And I woudlnt be surprised if AWACS calls just happneed to go our since we can see everything in Syria fromthe Iraqi side.

All-in-all, this now shows what I have been ahrping on all along: the geopolitical importantce of Iraq.

If we did not have Iraq occupied, and the North (Kurdish) areas reinforce, Iran would be able to directly support Syria. But since wea re in the way, as well as a pretty well armed Iaqi military, the Syrians are on their own, and Israel knows this - they can defeat the Syrian military in detail, and shatter Hamas and Hezbollah at one blow.

I hoe, os so much, that Syria attacks and opens war with Israel - it will mean Syria will finally see its military destoryed and its central government demolished. And I also hope Iran tries to interven overland - the Kurds and a US Bridage up there woudl chew them up badly! The side effect wooudl be a rally of Iraqi's against Iranian (Perisan) invadeers, the collapse of the last Baathis regime in the region, and the death of Hama and Hezbollah as anything other than minor terrorist organizations.

Posted by Oldspook 2006-07-16 23:07|| 2006-07-16 23:07|| Front Page Top

#19 Double post. odd.

Posted by Oldspook 2006-07-16 23:09|| 2006-07-16 23:09|| Front Page Top

#20 What's the probability that they are also thinking of making it hard for the Iranians to resupply the Hezballah?

Posted by gorb 2006-07-16 23:17|| 2006-07-16 23:17|| Front Page Top

#21 What's the probability that they are trying to make it hard for the Iranians to resupply the Hezballah?

Posted by gorb 2006-07-16 23:18|| 2006-07-16 23:18|| Front Page Top

#22 Hi, Oldspook:

Looks like the site is super busy tonight! Took a lot longer than usual for my comments to surface!

Posted by gorb 2006-07-16 23:19|| 2006-07-16 23:19|| Front Page Top

#23 Old Spook, thanks, even for the double post! All day, I've been clicking, watching for you to appear.

And all day, I've had the ear tuned to the TV -- and it's like our presence is Iraq, is not to be mentioned. It's just completely forgotten by all these "experts" parading in front of us.

So thanks, for putting a "face" on our presence in Iraq, and the fact, this is why we are really there. Rather, it's been the MSM declaring Bush a failure, not even thinking to consider, that what is happening now, is all part of a master plan, to put these evil guys out of business.

Posted by Sherry">Sherry 2006-07-16 23:26|| 2006-07-16 23:26|| Front Page Top

#24 What's remarkable is how much slack Israel is getting from the international community. Usually they are forced to stop winning by pressure from the outside.

I suspect this has something to do with Iraq as well.

Posted by Iblis">Iblis 2006-07-16 23:35|| 2006-07-16 23:35|| Front Page Top

#25 Iblis, it has something to do rather with Iran, not Iraq. People heard AhMad-i-nutjob's ramblings and he gives people major creeps. Despite rhetoric, they all wish him to be gone. Obviously, wishfull thinking has an abyssmal rate of success so they see Israel as the magic bullet or its precursor. It's a politically incorrect secret hope.

Posted by twobyfour 2006-07-16 23:48|| 2006-07-16 23:48|| Front Page Top

23:57 gorb
23:48 twobyfour
23:42 Iblis
23:41 Sherry
23:36 Iblis
23:35 Iblis
23:26 Sherry
23:25 gorb
23:21 gorb
23:19 gorb
23:18 gorb
23:17 gorb
23:09 Oldspook
23:07 Oldspook
23:07 Oldspook
23:06 ed
23:06 crosspatch
22:59 gorb
22:59 Scott R
22:59 tu3031
22:57 gorb
22:55 Anonymoose
22:54 Justrand
22:50 crosspatch