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2009-06-22 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
The Mullahs will win: Deal with it.
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Posted by Fred 2009-06-22 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [395 views ]  Top

#1 People are ignoring the lesson of the Soviet block collapse. The regime stays in power as long as its security apparatus is willing to suppress dissent. If even a small part of the security apparatus falters then there is a rapid cascade as more and more the security people do nothing as fear of what happens after regime change grows.

The reported use of 'Arab' and foreign security to suppress dissent indicates to me we may be already be in the cascade.

Look for reports of Army/Police standing by and doing nothing to stop protests.
Posted by Phil_B 2009-06-22 03:56||   2009-06-22 03:56|| Front Page Top

#2 Consequently, provocative language from the White House would likely only incite a bloodier cracdown


You can't get any bloodier than snipers picking off young unarmed female students.

No preconditions.

That gives the mullahs all the cover they need for actions such as these.

I hope Obama enjoys breaking bread with those bastards.
Posted by badanov 2009-06-22 07:13||]">[]  2009-06-22 07:13|| Front Page Top

#3 Note where this is pubished, The American Conservative, Pitchfork Pat Buchanan's vanity rag, a publication that is sympathetic to the various Middle Eastern tyrranies (the House of Saud and the PA, to name a couple) and opposed deposing Saddam Hussein. I would go so far as to say that The American Conservative is probably in sympathy with Ahmadinejad's plans for Israel!

It may be that the bad guys will survive this round. I would, however, keep in mind a quote from that Will Collier piece I posted last week:

The reign of the ayatollahs in Iran has an expiration date, and the ayatollahs know it. Seventy percent of Iran's population wasn't even alive in 1978, and they've had enough of the mullahs and their Basij bully boys. Whether their yoke is thrown off in 2009 or in 2012 or 2020, it's going to happen, probably within the next decade or so.

I hope any sane person would agree that sooner would be better, but here's a question for all of those who are eaten up with concern over "what will they think of us?" Whenever the turn comes, what exactly will they think of us, if we turn our backs on them today? What will they think if we just hedge our bets against the ludicrous idea that we might be burning (nonexistent) bridges with the mullahs otherwise?
Posted by Mike 2009-06-22 08:21||   2009-06-22 08:21|| Front Page Top

#4 ...As I see it though, here's our problem: if Dinnerjacket wins, he's going to go all Khomeni on us because we've criticized his stealing an election. If Mousavi wins, he's actually farther out in Mooselimbland than Dinnejacket is (with the exception of wanting to get the lifestyle police off everybody's backs), and he's going to have to do some serious threatening to establish his bonafides. Either way, we don't end up much better than where we're starting. I don't normally have much sympathy for our current POTUS, but when you look at the either/or on this one, we're kinda screwed no matter what we do.


Posted by Mike Kozlowski 2009-06-22 09:44||   2009-06-22 09:44|| Front Page Top

#5 "Good morning, this is the CENTCOM Revolutionary Guard Targeting Hotline, how can we be of assistance this morning."

"Pardon me a minute while I pull up our Google satellite map to confirm the location you are referring to."

"No sir, we can't guarantee we can get them all, but we can cut them down to your size to deal with."

"Well sir, just like your neighbors in Iraq, every call helps in it own way of separating the predators from the herd."

"Thank you for your help and have a great day"
Posted by Procopius2k 2009-06-22 09:47||   2009-06-22 09:47|| Front Page Top

#6 It took a year of rioting to overthrow the Shah. But at the same time, there is no voice of democracy in Iran, outside of the influence of ideas from Iraq.

Other factors include Iran being something of a colonial power over its large minority regions, the Kurds, Arabs and Baluchs. If there is a major disorganization, these areas could become very unstable.
Posted by Anonymoose 2009-06-22 10:10||   2009-06-22 10:10|| Front Page Top

#7 I am happy this author did not exist when Reagan spoke out over Solidarity and Poland. Rhetoric of this sort ignores the cultural, economic and racial fault lines in Iran.

What happened to the Shining City On A Hill? Is it now a slinking pit of cowardice and blather? Have conservatives such as this given up on supporting freedom in the world? The reasoning this fellow gives could have been used by advocates of "Peace in Our Time" to support accord with Hitler.

Has America truly forgotten all it had learned, is freedom not worth even speaking out for?
Posted by Lagom 2009-06-22 10:21||   2009-06-22 10:21|| Front Page Top

#8 Mike, one thing would be different: there'd be a precedent that the people could decide if the mullahs were wrong. You're right, in the short term that doesn't guarantee sane rulers for Iran.
Posted by James">James  2009-06-22 10:33||]">[]  2009-06-22 10:33|| Front Page Top

#9 Not so sure the mullahs will win. It is difficult to stop a popular movement that has momentum without creating more momentum.
Posted by JohnQC 2009-06-22 11:06||   2009-06-22 11:06|| Front Page Top

#10 Several IRGC officers have been arrested for refusing to carry out orders. When you start depending on foreigners (Lebanese and Syrians) to stay in power, you are close to finished.

The important fact is that this battle is between Islamists. They took 400 potential candidates and allowed 4 to stand for elections (i.e. the most loyal 1%). If you have to rig the election on the most loyal 1%, you don't have a following at all.
Posted by Frozen Al 2009-06-22 11:30||   2009-06-22 11:30|| Front Page Top

#11 You can bet those old UH-1's drifting around overhead are manned by camera crews loyal to Dinnerjacket filming the "progress" of riot control troops and personnel.
Posted by Besoeker 2009-06-22 11:38||   2009-06-22 11:38|| Front Page Top

#12 The Iranian Revolution of 1979 was a popular movement & look how that turned out. I have little hope that yet another revolution there will improve things much for anyone except the winners.
Posted by Anguper Hupomosing9418 2009-06-22 11:40||   2009-06-22 11:40|| Front Page Top

#13 I see "astroturfing" in play here from The Axelrod of Evil. They are covering for BHO already down playing the odds of a successful revolution and creating a skepticism of the "greens" really winning in the long run. This could very easily back-fire especially if Mousavi and his contingent do in fact succeed - it will be Merkel and Sarkozy he will naturally align with first in a toast of success.
Posted by Jack is Back!">Jack is Back!  2009-06-22 14:18||   2009-06-22 14:18|| Front Page Top

#14 Hand wringing. Meek. Timid. Makes me sick.
Posted by Ebbang Uluque6305 2009-06-22 14:38||   2009-06-22 14:38|| Front Page Top

#15 Revolutionary Guards commander defies Khamenei's orders to use force on protestors.

A commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards has been arrested for refusing to obey Iran's Supreme Leader, according to reports from the Balatarin website.

General Ali Fazli, who was recently appointed as a commander of the Revolutionary Guards in the province of Tehran, is reported to have been arrested after he refused to carry out orders from the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to use force on people protesting the controversial re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Posted by Black Bart Ebberens7700 2009-06-22 17:33||   2009-06-22 17:33|| Front Page Top

#16 Figures this comes through that fascist jew-baiting turd Buchanan.
Posted by OldSpook 2009-06-22 22:01||   2009-06-22 22:01|| Front Page Top

22:39 Barbara Skolaut
22:18 OldSpook
22:12 CrazyFool
22:08 OldSpook
22:05 AlmostAnonymous5839
22:03 OldSpook
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22:00 Barrack Saetoro
21:58 OldSpook
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21:56 OldSpook
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21:50 JosephMendiola
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21:40 JosephMendiola
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