Article

2005-06-15 Iraq-Jordan

StrategyPage: The Sunni Arabs Have a Plan That May Work

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Posted by ed 2005-06-15 17:44|| || Front Page|| [11128 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 If that happens ... would federalism look like a good idea (with an emphasis on bypassing a Sunni-ruled government to help the Shias and Kurds more directly) or should we just start advocating Kurdistan?

Posted by Edward Yee">Edward Yee 2005-06-15 18:09|| http://edwardyee.fanworks.net]">[http://edwardyee.fanworks.net] 2005-06-15 18:09|| Front Page Top

#2 This is one of the better bits of analysis that I've ever seen.

All along, the real question in Iraq has been, 'Do the Shia really want to be their own people? Or are they willing to be mastered again by the Sunni?' I strongly suspect that a major contributing factor to many of the current problems in Iraq has been the painfully slow process of the Shia 'getting their act together'. However, I think the evidence is now in -- the Shia want to be free.

At best, the Sunni strategy of 'driving a hard bargain' with suicide bombers might actually work for a while. So the Sunni could establish a special status for themselves in Iraq in which the worst of them don't have to pay for previous (and current) crimes. But that's probably just a temporary fix. Ultimately, the Sunni are riding the tiger. Their strategy is heavily dependent upon the forebearance of the Kurds and the Shia, and that forebearance is probably very tenous.

Posted by Patrick Phillips 2005-06-15 18:19|| 2005-06-15 18:19|| Front Page Top

#3 I could come up with a completely different analysis, that has the Sunni 'insurgency' simmering for years and the Kurds and Shiias using this as an opportunity to progessively rollback Sunni control of large areas of Iraq. Already largely unoticed by the MSM the Kurds have defaco control of a large area south of their 3 provinces stretching from the Iranian border to the Syrian border. As the Shiias get organized I expect them to do the same from the south.

Posted by phil_b 2005-06-15 18:49|| 2005-06-15 18:49|| Front Page Top

#4 It's a plan that'll work as long as America's army is free to babysit Iraq and we don't get involved in any wars with anyone else in the Middle East, or aren't attacked elsewhere or at home.

Posted by Phil Fraering 2005-06-15 20:06|| http://newsfromthefridge.typepad.com]">[http://newsfromthefridge.typepad.com] 2005-06-15 20:06|| Front Page Top

#5 Iraq needs to make sure the Second Amendment is its first.

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2005-06-15 20:44|| 2005-06-15 20:44|| Front Page Top

#6 The two real factors at work here are both discreet: the invisible hand of US diplomacy (remember Condi Rice?); and the almost ritualized haggling of the casbah. Unless you are familiar with the Middle East haggle, then much of what is transpiring is missed. However, the hand of Uncle Sam is far more omnipotent. It seeks power and balance, transparency and honesty, and the evolution of the utter dominance of democratic institutions. First the haggle will iron out some kind of agreement satisfactory to the parties, then adjustments will be made to further level the playing field. There are hundreds of tools that can be used to strengthen one side or diminish the other, subtly. All the players within and outside of Iraq will be taken into account, and years of timetables will be developed to chart all sorts of baselines for national development. Even with the departure of most of the US forces, the game continues, far beyond when stability and strength have reached their maximum. Prosperity should bring with it the end of old institutions, and the transcendance of old animosities.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-06-15 21:41|| 2005-06-15 21:41|| Front Page Top

#7 But a major effort to suppress current Sunni Arab violence in Iraq could leave over 100,000 Sunni Arabs dead, and several million in exile.
I can see it already. Boatloads of them turning up, stating that their human rights to cause mayhem and terror sre being denied them and claiming protection of the Refugee Convention and welfare.

Posted by tipper 2005-06-15 22:20|| 2005-06-15 22:20|| Front Page Top

#8 Yep - and the ones that ignored the previous batch of boat people will turn out in droves to support 'em.

Posted by Pappy 2005-06-15 22:47|| 2005-06-15 22:47|| Front Page Top

#9 But a major effort to suppress current Sunni Arab violence in Iraq could leave over 100,000 Sunni Arabs dead, and several million in exile.

Pardon me if I seem hard-pressed to work up a little sympathy...

Posted by Bomb-a-rama 2005-06-15 23:01|| 2005-06-15 23:01|| Front Page Top

#10 Whats needed is to topple the moneybags behind the SUnni: the Wahhabists in Saudi. The Shia along the coastal are awhere the oil is could be encouraged to break away, armed and the protected by the US. THe Suadis without the oil money are nothing but a bunch of dirt poor, stinkin Bedu who dont matter crap in the world picture.

Posted by OldSpook 2005-06-15 23:21|| 2005-06-15 23:21|| Front Page Top

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