Article

2007-05-23 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Pappy 2007-05-23 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11129 views ] Top

#1 It would sure be a shame if something else were to happen to its refining capacity.

Posted by JAB 2007-05-23 00:44|| 2007-05-23 00:44|| Front Page Top

#2 a country with 70 million people - at least half of whom are under 25

How did that happen - is that possible? What's the life expectancy in Iran? That must be 35 million youngsters who just love to dress modestly and live devout lives.

Posted by Howard UK 2007-05-23 04:00|| 2007-05-23 04:00|| Front Page Top

#3 a country with 70 million people - at least half of whom are under 25

How did that happen - is that possible?

Of all people, I'd have thought a Brit would understand how that happens. Perhaps that is the reason for the declining birth rates in the UK.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2007-05-23 07:18|| 2007-05-23 07:18|| Front Page Top

#4 Excellent snark, NS! ;-)
(Even if directed at felow Rantburger)

Posted by twobyfour 2007-05-23 07:30|| 2007-05-23 07:30|| Front Page Top

#5 How did that happen

In the usual way I imagine, Howard dear. ;-) Plus all the oldsters who died or emigrated in the course of establishing the Khomeini revolution, died clearing minefields and similar warlike maneuvers against Iraq in the 1980s, died during various uprisings put down with a strong hand over the years, died of drug overdoses and suicides by the desperate...

For life expectancy, check the CIA Factbook on Iran (for some reason the direct link isn't working for me right now, but this link works).

Posted by trailing wife 2007-05-23 07:55|| 2007-05-23 07:55|| Front Page Top

#6 Thanks TW - On reflection , that was a pretty thick question :)

Posted by Howard UK 2007-05-23 08:22|| 2007-05-23 08:22|| Front Page Top

#7 To cut Howard UK some slack, the great demographic divide between aging developed countries, and booming "developing" countries (even with birthrates falling) is like comparing two different realities. For instance, the median age in gaza is 15. The third world is young, young, young, and will be for some time, and they will have to either dramatically improve their societies to give outlets to that young population, or export the surplus somewhere.

Posted by anonymous5089 2007-05-23 08:36|| 2007-05-23 08:36|| Front Page Top

#8 When Khomenei took power he urged the Iranians to have many children. As TW mentioned emigration and war took their toll. Still in the 1980s, even with horrendous war losses, Iranian population was growing at 3%/year, near fastest in the world. Currently population is growing at 1%, but that is because of the huge bulge in the population under 30, and masks the fact that fertility is now 1.8/woman, below replacement levels.

Posted by ed 2007-05-23 08:36|| 2007-05-23 08:36|| Front Page Top

#9 Ed, that why "Spengler" from Asia Times posits that iran has to act now, while it has the demographical possibility to create its persian empire, and before it crumbles under the weight of the now soldier-age youths turned retired old people. The same is true form the muslim world in general, they have a "window" of a few decades to act decisively, before demography catches up with them and they become giant retiremnt homes, without say the facilities and developed society of Japan.

Posted by anonymous5089 2007-05-23 08:41|| 2007-05-23 08:41|| Front Page Top

#10 Rantburg U. rulez!

Howard dear, did you skip lunch? Low blood sugar is known to decrease the ability to think clearly...

Posted by trailing wife 2007-05-23 08:43|| 2007-05-23 08:43|| Front Page Top

#11 This is really fuel on the fire. There is an even bigger social problem for the Iranians.

What is happening in Iraq is filtering to them and that is cell phones, laptops and satelite dishes. The more infomation that flows the worse is gets for the revolutionary counsel.

The Kurds are exercising a lot of physical pressure from the north.

So the "secret" directive from President Bush being reported on may be somewhat dated.

And as a side bar for ed, give me the MICH helmet anyday. It is easier to wear and it doesn't wobble. If you add a couple of extra pads it gets even better. The one draw back is you can't put idiot cards in it...

Posted by Top Mac 2007-05-23 08:45|| 2007-05-23 08:45|| Front Page Top

#12 The scale of Iran's economic crisis became clear yesterday when the regime increased petrol prices by 25 per cent overnight

Sounds like a typical summer holiday weekend mark-up in Canada.

Posted by Excalibur 2007-05-23 09:07|| 2007-05-23 09:07|| Front Page Top

#13 Quick! Blow up their refineries!

Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader 2007-05-23 12:54|| 2007-05-23 12:54|| Front Page Top

#14 One interesting bit of data from TW's link is the imbalance in number of males vs females. There are 3 million more males than females in the child bearing ages.

Normally the number of females outnumbers males by the time they reach adulthood. This suggests a systematic elimination of unwanted females.

It almost certainly implies a large number of unemployed, horny and frustrated young men. I would expect these men to revolt against the regime or engage in a Jihad.

Either way, very explosive.

Al

Posted by Frozen Al 2007-05-23 14:22|| 2007-05-23 14:22|| Front Page Top

#15 How did that happen - is that possible?

Some half a million Muslim males died in the Iran-Iraq war. Iran took particularly heavy losses due, not just to Saddam's use of poison gas, but other niceities like running high tension lines from the Basra hydro plant and sinking them in the marshes to cook alive Iranian soldiers who waded in. Additionally, Iran's army has always been heavy on manpower and light on armor or artillery. Human wave assaults of the sort not seen since WWI were commonplace Iranian strategy.

Most horrific of all was Iran's use of children less than ten years old to clear the way as human mine sweepers. With a lick and a promise of paradise whose doors would be opened by the plastic key on a chain around their necks, Iran sent the flower of their youth straight to Hell. Add in some 300,000 (mostly male) political prisoners, constant executions and disasters like Bam, and Iran's male population takes it in the shorts. Of course, this is supposed to be made up by so many rich mullahs having several ~~brood mares~~ wives.

Posted by Zenster">Zenster 2007-05-23 14:58|| 2007-05-23 14:58|| Front Page Top

#16 There are plastic keys from Malasia with the mullahs names on them. They can see if that unlocks that GATE. I doubt it.

Posted by newc">newc 2007-05-23 21:16|| 2007-05-23 21:16|| Front Page Top

23:50 trailing wife
23:49 Mark Espinola
23:48 Zenster
23:45 Mark Espinola
23:43 DMFD
23:43 WTF
23:42 Zenster
23:30 anonymous2u
23:26 DMFD
23:24 Danking70
22:50 Angie Schultz
22:49 Mac
22:47 Shieldwolf
22:45 Mac
22:44 Mac
22:36 DMFD
22:33 DMFD
22:32 DMFD
22:31 SR-71
22:21 George Orwell
22:19 George Orwell
22:08 ed
22:04 Anonymoose
22:00 George Orwell