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2003-04-27 Europe

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Posted by OMER ISHMAIL 2003-04-27 04:48 pm|| || Front Page|| [6 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Sun nonsense, at least for Germany. Maybe people buy less French wine but this wine has already been paid for and new vintages are bought on fixed contracts for years ahead.
Only 10 percent of EU exports go to the U.S. and many products might not even be realized as German or French.
A serious boycott would be met by slow withdrawal of European capital from the U.S. markets which depend on fresh cash of 1.5 bn dollars being invested in US financial markets every day.
Nobody will start a serious trade boycott. And German can still drink the French wine not being sold in the US.
Let's chill a little here.

Posted by True German Ally 2003-04-27 18:27:34|| 2003-04-27 18:27:34|| Front Page Top

#2 TGA, you are welcome to chill a little there, but we're not chilling here just because the impact may be small. Yesterday my wife and I bought a new frying pan and, even though we liked the $30 T-Fal one best, we passed it over because of the "Made in France" label. And you can drink the French wine too -- there's been non consumed in my house this year.

Posted by Tom 2003-04-27 19:00:17|| 2003-04-27 19:00:17|| Front Page Top

#3 Tom you are free to buy what you like... so are we

Posted by True German Ally 2003-04-27 19:20:20|| 2003-04-27 19:20:20|| Front Page Top

#4 That part about GI's moving to Poland was news to me, but the rest of it isn't.

I've been noticing more and more French stuff being left on the shelves of my favorite overpriced gourmet store. This is bad news for France, not just now, but in the future as more and more Americans discover alternatives that are just as good if not better.

Maybe I'm missing something, TGA, when you say that Europeans are going to pull their money from the US if we boycott France. Does France tell the rest of the EU what they can or can't invest in? Germany, Denmark, Italy, Britain, et al don't make their own decisions where to invest their money?

Posted by Baba Yaga 2003-04-27 19:27:45|| 2003-04-27 19:27:45|| Front Page Top

#5 No, France won't tell Europe to do that but if the U.S. turns more and more aggressive towards Europe (and that includes France), more belligerent towards other countries, confidence of European (and Asian) investors in the stability of the U.S. will drop... and they will look for alternatives. This won't happen out of political pressure but out of economic concern. Every day the U.S. continues bashing France (and to a lesser extent Germany) it helps Europe to stick closer together. Start serious "punishing" of France and you'll unite Europe faster than De Gaulle could ever have imagined. And in the long run even the UK will have to decide where its economical interests really are.
I say this with all the friendship I have for the United States. Fighting terrorism in the Middle East is one thing, treating European nations like pariahs because they don't shut up and follow is another. Yes I believe that France went too far and its motivations were less than noble. But the United States doesn't hold the moral high ground in all affairs of this world either. The Iraq war may have been necessary but the way it was pushed through had its doubtful moments.
Before Iraq the USA had a moral authority in the world including Europe. Now that authority is in danger of being sacrificed for the sake of a military authority. But the world has been financing the USA for two decades (since Reagan plunged the US into astronomic debts). Debts the US could rely on never being called. But give it another 2 or 3 wars without asking anyone and the people who aren't asked will stop financing things nobody asks them their opinion about. And invest their money into enterprises that won't turn against them one day.

Posted by True German Ally 2003-04-27 19:52:46|| 2003-04-27 19:52:46|| Front Page Top

#6 TGA has an undeniable point; but I will have harsh things to say about the current French government if facts continue to come to light as I believe they will.

Posted by Matt 2003-04-27 20:08:31|| 2003-04-27 20:08:31|| Front Page Top

#7 Matt, if there are real important facts about France and Iraq, they won't come out. They will be put to much better use.

Posted by True German Ally 2003-04-27 20:13:50|| 2003-04-27 20:13:50|| Front Page Top

#8 Frankly TGA, I haven't seen an anti-German boycott (in fact my daughter wants a new Jetta - damn) but if you'd like to sup from the french cup of payback bitterness, no-one can stop you. I figured the Germans were smarter than to do so. The French have nothing but lies and French self-interest to offer you, but it's your choice to make. Myself? I have nothing against Germany outide of Schroeder, Joschke, et al and their idiot green supporters. If things can be worked out around them, so much the better for all, they were played by chirac and de villepin for fools after they used the anti-american card to get re-elected

Posted by Frank G 2003-04-27 20:14:17|| 2003-04-27 20:14:17|| Front Page Top

#9 Frank, payback may be a bitch but its never a good policy, especially not when paybacks can backfire. Don't make Germany chose between the U.S. and France, this just can't work. An ocean separates us from America and only a river from France. We have tried to please both as much as we could (and I can say America still has more sympathies here than France). But our economic and political destiny is Europe and we just have to live with France. Schroeder will go, Joschka might stick around as the first European foreign minister. The more you bash France, the more likely this is.
George Bush rather not use the anti-European (or anti-French card to get reelected.
Enough china has been broken already. Smashing more of it won't mend the one we broke already.

Posted by True German Ally 2003-04-27 20:27:45|| 2003-04-27 20:27:45|| Front Page Top

#10 TGA: If we're going to mend fences (and there really is no choice, either for Europe or the US) it seems to me that the best available American fence-mender is Secretary Powell, if I am accurately guessing at European perception of individuals within the current US administration. But the problem is that it is precisely Secretrary Powell who -- from this side of the Atlantic -- was personally and professionally backstabbed by Chirac and deVillepin over Res. 1441. I can envision Powell meeting with Fischer, but a Powell-deVillepin meeting seems out of the question.

Posted by Matt 2003-04-27 20:45:17|| 2003-04-27 20:45:17|| Front Page Top

#11 Out of the question? I suppose George Bush will even have to meet Chirac in Evian. Live sucks but goes on. Even in world politics.

Posted by True German Ally 2003-04-27 20:57:12|| 2003-04-27 20:57:12|| Front Page Top

#12 I dunno, TGA. You make a good-sense case, if the US didn't have a new motto.
"No more freebies."
To insist the US can't react unfavorably to French perfidy because it might cost us (or possibly you) some money doesn't cut it.
New world.
Old Europe.
BTW, we're not going to be treating all of Europe the same. We will be treating various countries according to their behavior. There's no reason Poland, for example, will have to worry about getting hammered because they're on the same continent as France.
You can cross the Rhine more easily than the North Atlantic. I think you know the route. Start this week, will you?
Your common-sense views don't take into account the new world, our new motto, or the fact that we can afford to make sure there are no more freebies.
In the long run, it's cheaper, anyway.
As to moral authority, we had it as long as we didn't do anything and the world could get off on watching our funerals.
I guess we can do without it.
Anyway, there is always the World Oxymoron Contest's retire-the-trophy winner. "European diplomacy".
If European diplomacy were a disease, would it be worse than the Black Death? More repulsive than leprosy?
We'll have to figure this one out on our own, without help.
Whatever shall we do?

Posted by Richard Aubrey 2003-04-27 21:03:18|| 2003-04-27 21:03:18|| Front Page Top

#13 Richard, Europe has buried more people killed by terrorists than the U.S. (not in one day though). No need to teach us about funerals. Especially not me. I have come back from the living dead twice in my life. And saw ten times as many people die in a single night than NY. Peace through international laws, rules, treaties, agreements mean more to us than to Americans maybe.
The U.S. can do what it wants with France, I just gave a few ideas about what the consequences might be. But we are no kids who get sweeets or spanks from mummy USA if we behave nice or naughty. Freebies for whom?
European diplomacy may have limited impact in the world (yet) but it certainly has worked in most parts of Europe. In 1989 we witnessed a peaceful revolution and the more or less peaceful demise of a communist tyrant. And no, it was not all for Reagan's weapons program. The Soviet Union could have gone the North Korean way, too. With all its nukes.
There is no "war against terrorism" that can be won. You can win battles but not the war. It's like the "war against drugs". Show impressive amounts of confiscated cocaine, cool, but that doesn't change a thing.
America wants to cut the supply, Europe the demand. The American way might look better on CNN, but the European one might actually work better. German terrorism subsided because nobody wanted to clap, nobody wanted to treat terrorists like warriors (or even unlawful combattants). We treated them as murderers, followed the right judicial procedures and convicted them as murderers. Sooner or later the remaining terrorists gave up.
What terrorists need most to survive is... a cause backed by a certain amount of followers. Do you think Iraq under U.S. occupation diminished that cause? And its followers?
As long as people think they fight for a just cause (as terrible and barbaric as it may seem) they find ways to do harm. With box cutters... or nukes. And even if America occupied every Islamic state that wouldn't change a thing.
That Iraq is liberated from a tyranny is wonderful. But maybe a dictator who didn't dare to use his WMD, moved them to Syria and/or destroyed them before being annihilated... well maybe he wasn't quite the most dangerous foe of the US?

Posted by True German Ally 2003-04-27 21:33:51|| 2003-04-27 21:33:51|| Front Page Top

#14 What utter & complete bullshit this stuff that TGA continues to propagate. Since the beginning he's been blaming the US for somehow backing Germany into a corner, as if Germany had no other course of action, and now the US is supposed to treat Europe with white gloves... or else. What utter nonsense.
Do something good for this world for a change instead of criticizing those that actually try. For 10 years you let Yugoslavia turn into a graveyard.
I'm sorry TGA, you may have some good insights but blaming the US for Germany's own actions is complete nonsense. Thank God I don't live in Europe.

Posted by Anonymous 2003-04-27 21:34:05|| 2003-04-27 21:34:05|| Front Page Top

#15 Anonymous, if you read my postings for a while as you claim you did you would have realized that I never excused the actions of Schroeder's government.
But we are allies, we did not pledge allegiance. There is a difference between allies and vassals. And if you continue to "punish" countries that don't follow the Bush doctrine of permanent preemptive wars against terrorism you might feel a bit lonely in a decade. Maybe earlier. And run out of cash, too.

Posted by True German Ally 2003-04-27 21:47:14|| 2003-04-27 21:47:14|| Front Page Top

#16 TGA, one quick note: if retail contracts for French wine sold in the U.S. are similar to other contracts here, retailers who can't sell the wine are able to return it to distributers without loss. That means the distributors eat the loss. That will soon put pressure on the French vintners to cut new deals, because distributors who don't get new deals will go bankrupt, and good luck finding a new one in the current climate.

I don't have any special insider knowledge, but I do know that for the past seventy years or so, U.S. retailers won't take a loss on unsold goods; they almost always go back to the distributor, or the retailer gets a break to help move the stuff.

Posted by Steve White 2003-04-27 22:09:54|| 2003-04-27 22:09:54|| Front Page Top

#17 That wasn't anonymous above, that was me...
Once again TGA, nobody expected Germany to blindly follow the US, but what Germany did was more than simply disagree with their friends. Germany fought the whole issue at the UN as if their life depended on it. Wouldn't it be easier to let the US have their way and watch as they screw up? On the other hand, Germany did the right thing if they wanted to keep their backyard free of the type of crap that occured on 9-11. You earned much kudos with the Arab street. You lost many American friends. And BTW, I see nothing wrong with preemptive wars against terrorism. Surely you meant countries. If you want to bail out on the war against terrorism, go ahead, but it will bite you on the ass some day too.

Posted by RW 2003-04-27 22:31:36|| 2003-04-27 22:31:36|| Front Page Top

#18 TGA: You're forgetting several things. Economics. First off both France and Germany are in deep chronic unemployment (look at the hard figures, its hovering roughly around 13% for France and 11% for Germany), worse these are mainly people that have been laid off for more than a year. Hitting France with a boycott that is run by people not wishing to buy their products is not the fault of the government. Similarly there is already talk in France that they wish to boycott our OWN products.

Secondly I must point out that no one has hit the EU hard in this boycott. Hell we cant do such a thing on a governmental level because of the World Trade Organization stepping in and fining the living crap out of everyone involved. Also a good point to ask yourself is WHY do EU countries invest so much in the US per day? I bet if you look hard enough its because theres a lower tax rate on investments both in liquid capital and capital goods. Obviously you live in europe so you can attest to the tax rate there. If its actually less than the US right now I'd be surprised to say the least. Also you're forgetting that a lot of modern countries tend to do POS inventorying. This allows for them to stock goods that are in demand according to how much is being sold. This would be in accordance to the comments Steve White said above. What doesn't sell doesn't get replaced. Simple economics. Unless there is a subsidy system going on no one is going to want to take loss on products they cannot sell.

Finally last I have to take up your point with the terrorists needing a cause. Yep they need it..they also need safe havens, diplomatic passports, and money. If we even take out one or two countries that are backing worldwide terrorists that is an improvement. Think longer term TGA...very long term. We didn't invade Germany directly, we went first to North Africa and then France. Ask yourself WHY. :)

Posted by Valentine 2003-04-27 23:44:42|| 2003-04-27 23:44:42|| Front Page Top

#19 George Bush rather not use the anti-European (or anti-French card to get reelected.--

You still don't understand US, TGA. W won't have to. france takes care of that daily.

--or nukes. And even if America occupied every Islamic state that wouldn't change a thing. That Iraq is liberated from a tyranny is wonderful. But maybe a dictator who didn't dare to use his WMD, moved them to Syria and/or destroyed them before being annihilated... well maybe he wasn't quite the most dangerous foe of the US?--

Again, you don't understand US. Hit us hard, 9/11 really wasn't hard, and we'll want to end it. That will be shock and awe.

Rummy already gave Germany a pass, once the current admin is gone, things should get better, depending on the successor.

Besides, Europe has millions more islamists than we do.

--And run out of cash, too.-- Then Europe will too, those bennies will be hard to give up if you have to start paying your way and funding *the world.*

And we are still Germany's 2nd largest trading partner, aren't we? $45 billion???

Posted by Anonymous 2003-04-28 01:04:34|| 2003-04-28 01:04:34|| Front Page Top

#20 I might sometimes sound a bit confusing because I'm trying to make you understand what many Germans are feeling while I myself am probably closer to the US position than the "German Street".
Steve you are probably right. Wine boycotts are easy because people have so much choice. Whether complaints of French winemakers will convince Chirac to drop it all is another thing.
But just ask yourself one thing. How will consumer boycotts (non official ones) affect the US-European relationship in the long run? Won't people get a lot more sceptical about the value of the transatlantic cause? Globalization cherished by the US will suffer, the European countries will stick closer together. This is not a matter of months or even year, but decades. Nobody will withdraw money in a hurry, but it could be a very gradual painful thing to watch over the year. Wise politicians need to think farther than in 4 year terms.
I know that Germany has learned from all this. I know that the next war (Syria or Iran) will continue to be opposed by the German government (and the CDU won't jump on the war band wagon either), but opposition will be done in a more prudent way and we'll make sure we won't get hijacked by the French again. Germany is a very anti-war country, nothing (except a WMD attack on Berlin) will change that. It's deep in our collective mind, and the WW2 allies made sure that it is.
RW if you believe that something wrong is happening (like Germany did in 2002) you can't just remain silent and let things run their cause. This is another lesson we learned 50 years ago. Too many people stayed quiet until it was too late. And as a member of the Security Council Germany had to speak up if she thought it was the right thing to do. Right or wrong, silence is the coward's option.
We understand that 9/11 has changed America. But we are worried that America has changed that much. And wants us to follow along on politics we don't believe in. Or lets say politics we haven't been convinced of. Yet? I don't know.
It's to early to know what will come out of the Iraq war. A few tonnes of VX or sarin would certainly help. I hope the lasting results won't be a "Shiite happens".

Posted by True German Ally 2003-04-28 06:49:40|| 2003-04-28 06:49:40|| Front Page Top

#21 Tom you are free to buy what you like... so are we

TGA,you are absolutlly correct and we will excersise that freedom.Just ask the Dixie Chicks.Friend of my is buying a new car,when the salesperson tried to show him a Nissan my friend turned away and walked off.
Was it not France that told Eastern Euorpe to shut-up and behave.Are you saying,TGA,that the U.S.give France a hug and say(with a tear in our eye)that all is forgiven.

(or anti-French card to get reelected
So you do think we should kiss and make nice with France,well screw that.

Posted by Anonymous 2003-04-28 07:12:38|| 2003-04-28 07:12:38|| Front Page Top

#22 I'm not asking for anything. I'm just pointing out that emotional actions tend to backfire. And Europeans are just starting to realize that 30something countries can't do much. But economically and politically united they can.
And it's one thing to stop buying Dixie Chicks music because you don't agree with what they say. Calling for public boycott because they have an opinion you don't like is another thing.
In 1933 some people didn't like Jews and told the Germans not to buy Jewish. Be careful where you tread.
If America becomes a place where you can be economically killed just for voicing an opinion America will no longer be the country I have admired all my life.
Remember Voltaire:
"I don't share your opinion. But I will fight to defend your right to say it."

Posted by True German Ally 2003-04-28 09:19:09|| 2003-04-28 09:19:09|| Front Page Top

19:41 Anonymous
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