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2006-04-20 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

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Posted by Fred 2006-04-20 00:00|| || Front Page|| [7 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 SPACEWAR.com reports that America has asked Russia to stop cooper/assisting Iran wid both nuclear and missle tech. MOre importantly, SPACEWAR reports that Russia claims it will NOT interven in the IRAN CRISES SHOULD IT LEAD TO US-IRANIAN ARMED CONFLICT. The same website also reports about the on-going furor in Russian circles about Russia's declining confidence in its own nuke deteeeerrent capabilities vv the USA.
Sounds like the ball now is the court of the Commie Airborne Forces + Commie Specfors. Methinks Moscow knows or suspects CHINA has a NORKOR andor TAIWAN CARD TO PLAY AGAINST DUBYA AND AMERICA.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2006-04-20 01:18|| 2006-04-20 01:18|| Front Page Top

#2 Maybe time to stop playing at Multilateralism?

Posted by gromgoru 2006-04-20 06:44|| 2006-04-20 06:44|| Front Page Top

#3 Russia got all the Iranians money then told them they are f*cked. This is rich hahahahaha.

Posted by djohn66 2006-04-20 07:37|| 2006-04-20 07:37|| Front Page Top

#4 Joe I suspect you're right about Chinese willingness to use NKOR / Taiwan to make things tough for us.

They'd best be careful, tho, because last I heard a majority of Japanese now favor ammending the constitution to allow offensive military ops. Of course it would take the Japanese a while to make the shift ...

but not that much. Maybe a week or two in a hot crisis, months otherwise.

Posted by lotp 2006-04-20 08:07|| 2006-04-20 08:07|| Front Page Top

#5 Interewting article on pg 1 of today's WSJ on the rising Chinese star in Asia. Concludes by asking whether the bigger problem might not be the declining American star in the Pacific. Our Pacific strategy needs attention and resources.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-04-20 08:36|| 2006-04-20 08:36|| Front Page Top

#6 theres multilateralism and theres multilateralism.

Bush on Iraq was of course not unilateral, no matter how much hes attacked for that. He had Britain, Spain, Italy, Australia, Poland, Japan and a host of lesser powers supporting him. Now MAYBE it wasnt multilateral as we would have liked, but it was multilateral.

On Iran now, we're even more multilateral. I cant think of any member of the Iraq coalition of the willing who is not supporting us on Iran. And of course, and importantly, France and Germany ARE supporting us, at least to this point, and probably beyond.

The question is do we need Russia and China along. Well thats complex, and doesnt actually need to be decided yet. The next step is probably not immediate sanctions. The next step, after the IAEA reports, is a Section 7 UNSC resolution demanding Iran stop enrichment, without explicit reference to sanctions. With a time limit. When the time limit is broken by Iran, THEN we introduce a resolution for sanctions. This drags things out but the advantage is 1. That we might get Russia and China onboard, however low the probability 2. Its makes it much easier to keep France, Germany, and more reluctant folks in the UK and US on board. And thats essential. If we're going to try econ sanctions by a coalition of the willing France and Germany are essential. If we're going to use force, and not face HUGE costs from diplomatic blowback, the stronger the support from a broad range of allies the better.

Posted by liberalhawk 2006-04-20 15:16|| 2006-04-20 15:16|| Front Page Top

#7 The questions is, Can Bush get an Authorization to Use Force after November and the answer is, No. Will he try to get one before November? We're in one of those waiting periods while diplomacy works its magic where nothing is happening. But Bush is running out of time to get public opinion up to speed to support the ATUF. Short of an incredibly stupid move by the MM, for which they have deomnstrated an amazing propensity, the MM get a free ride till April 2009.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-04-20 15:30|| 2006-04-20 15:30|| Front Page Top

#8 do you really think that if Blair, Merkel, and even Chirac were supportive, a res wouldnt go through?

the politics might be more like Iraq 1 than like Iraq 2, with the allies all on board, and more opposition domestically. But even then enough Dems crossed over.

Posted by liberalhawk 2006-04-20 15:35|| 2006-04-20 15:35|| Front Page Top

#9 I believe that if Bush can not do it, it will not be done. I do not see the combination of resolute will + electability that would stop Iran becoming nuclear, assuming the timeframe actually extends beyond Bush's 2nd term.

Does anyone else?

Posted by Whaick Crinens7005 2006-04-20 15:36|| 2006-04-20 15:36|| Front Page Top

#10 do you really think that if Blair, Merkel, and even Chirac were supportive, a res wouldnt go through?

Which congressional district do they live in?

The decision to AUTF is purely domestic: "May I risk the lives of your children to accomplish some foreign policy goal?" What a bunch of Euros think is interesting but ultimately irrelevant as the decision last time proved. (I do not consider the Brits Euros, yet.)

One third of the country will sign up. One third will never sign up. So what we end up talking about is getting a majority of the undecided third in the middle on board.

The media BDS is so bad they will go nuts trying to stop it. If there is an election going on, there is enough independent focused debate and advertising that people will pay attention. Once the election is over, the MSM agitprop machine will go into full "lame duck" gear and erode Bush's ability to do anything.

Listen to RR. There's a problem in Ramadi so Rummy hasn't liberated anyone. That's the mindset the MSM will pound in daily. That and the run-up to the all important Iowa caucuses. Unless the Mullahs Melt Manhattan, they'll be on A17, below the fold.

Our best hope is the stupidity of the MM.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-04-20 15:54|| 2006-04-20 15:54|| Front Page Top

#11 Short of an incredibly stupid move by the MM, for which they have deomnstrated an amazing propensity, the MM get a free ride till April 2009.
I fear you are dead right. I can't decide if the MM's are showing political genius or are just damned lucky. Still it won't matter in the end. Gone in 60 Hours is the end game.

Posted by 6 2006-04-20 18:05|| 2006-04-20 18:05|| Front Page Top

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