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2003-04-14 Iraq

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Posted by Steve White 2003-04-14 09:01 am|| || Front Page|| [11127 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 "Damn! We're late for the party?"

"Might be another warming up next door."

Posted by Ptah 2003-04-14 09:44:01|| [www.crusaderwarcollege.org] 2003-04-14 09:44:01|| Front Page Top

#2 Lets see,before being shipped home maybe the 3ID should move to the Syria/Iraq border(oreinted west).Just rest and refit(R&R)you understand.

Posted by raptor 2003-04-14 10:13:35|| 2003-04-14 10:13:35|| Front Page Top

#3 I hope we are careful about how we deal with Syria - our troops are NOT likely to be welcomed there, the way they are in Iraq. Despite Syrian conventional weakness, it has much more "quagmire" potential than Iraq did, and more chance of real reaction from "arab street" I would hate to have a "quagmire" developing in Syria while we still have work to do in Iraq, Afghan, and Korea.

Granted pressure on them in regard to escaping Iraqis is timely and may be necessary I wouldnt want to go beyond that.

Yeah Hezbollah is a problem to Israel, but Israel can put pressure on Syria itself, by creating facts on ground in Golan, especially with Iraq situation having been progressed.

Subtle pressure can be put on Syrians in Lebanon (subversion, espionage, etc) that is less dangerous than conventional attack. But must be cautious even there - re-starting Lebanon civil war will not be popular in Arab world.

Posted by liberalhawk 2003-04-14 10:20:25|| 2003-04-14 10:20:25|| Front Page Top

#4 Liberalhawk, all your points are valid. Ask yourself this one question though: If you are George Bush, do you want to be remembered twelve years from now for stopping at a border just like Daddy?

Posted by john 2003-04-14 10:40:07|| 2003-04-14 10:40:07|| Front Page Top

#5 LiberalHawk's points are well-taken. I don't get the sense that the average Syrian is desparate for their government to be overthrown. Does anyone know if Baby Assad maintains the same kind of torture apparatus, to the same extent, as Sammy & Sons?

Just our being in Iraq, coupled with some discrete moves by Israel, could bring about change in Syria.

Posted by Steve White 2003-04-14 11:10:31|| 2003-04-14 11:10:31|| Front Page Top

#6 Let's remember...Syria is controlled by Ba'athists, and they're no better than a terrorist organization. Just as we rooted out the Nazi's all over Europe, we should be aware of the possible need to do the same in Syria.

Posted by Rex Mundi 2003-04-14 11:19:06|| 2003-04-14 11:19:06|| Front Page Top

#7 re: analogy to Bush sr in 1991.
In april 1991 shiites and Kurds rose in all cities where they were the majority, pushing out Saddam then would have been easier militarily than Iraqi Freedom. No such rebellion, happening this time in Syria - at least not yet. when and if it happens of course we should be prepared to move quickly.

"possible need to do the same in Syria"
i agree, broadly. The question is timing. My view on Syria now is close to that of the "hawkish doves" on Iraq a few months ago - yes to regime change, but we have other stuff to handle first. Except that position is more right now wrt Syria then it was then wrt Iraq. Syria is farther from Nukes then Iraq was (unless something big has been smuggled over). Syrian leadership is more sane (ergo more deterable) than Saddam regime was. Now we have not just Afghanistan to rebuild but also Iraq. that is not only a burden financially and on troop deployments, but must be accomplished to rebuild goodwill in region and globe before taking on someone else.

Contain Syria (and in different ways, Saudi and Pakland) - be wary - complete nation-building in afghan and Iraq - "rest and refresh" - make some progress in Israel-PA (NOT forcing Israel into unreasonable concessions on misguided notions about arab street - but use new US power to consolidate position, push Arafat out, then implement some variant on Road map) Continue work against AL qaeeda and Jihadis world-wide. Use evolving Iraq position as basis for public dipolomacy in muslim world. Focus on political situation in Iran, and ways to influence it. Consolidate position with regard to North Korea (notice where the carriers are going?)

Posted by liberalhawk 2003-04-14 12:02:08|| 2003-04-14 12:02:08|| Front Page Top

#8 I disagree with with Liberalhawks point primarily because Syria is a Shia country dominated by a Sunni minority. I think the Shia would welcome US intervention and we've made a good showing with the Shia in southern Iraq recently.

Certainly the Sunni will fight on and be much less likely to cave than the Iraqi Sunni but we also have three big favors on the US side this go around (1) we don't have a history of stopping short and letting the dictator slaughter the uprisings (2) the recent Iraqi example will send a real powerful message (3) Syrian troops in Lebanon are an easy pretext and Syrian connections to terrorist are well documented.

Posted by Yank 2003-04-14 12:10:09|| 2003-04-14 12:10:09|| Front Page Top

#9 "is a Shia country dominated by a Sunni minority"

Just the opposite - majority of pop i sunni, with Shia and Druze minorities. Sunni were historically dominant, but many Shia became army officers. Assad family and its associates are Shia. Sunni fundies rebelled about 20 years ago in city of Hamma (sp?) Rebellion easily crushed, none since.

We certainly need to study Syrian situation carefully before taking precipitate action.

Posted by liberalhawk 2003-04-14 12:23:16|| 2003-04-14 12:23:16|| Front Page Top

#10 Don't forget, we can squeeze that oil pipeline from Iraq to Syria. You know, take it down from time to time for "regular unscheduled maintenance".
The Shia in Syria might be more welcoming to us if we pause for a while to help build up a stable, free Iraq. There's no need to spread ourselves too thin. I think Syria has gotten the message that we can smack them down without working up much of a sweat.

Posted by Baba Yaga 2003-04-14 12:30:35|| 2003-04-14 12:30:35|| Front Page Top

#11 Baba Yaga---I think that the oil angle would be the best one to try first. Sort of diplomacy by flow control valve....see if they get the message.

-ÃÃ Ã¯Ã ÃÃ Ã¸Ã (damn..I was trying to sign "Papa Pasha" in Cyrillic, but it is not coming through right)

Posted by Alaska Paul 2003-04-14 13:30:23|| 2003-04-14 13:30:23|| Front Page Top

#12 To add to LiberalHawk, Assad and the ruling thugs were mostly from the Alawite sect, long considered by most Muslims to be not true Muslims. Daddy Assad in 1975 got a Muslim cleric in Lebanon (surprise!) to declare that Alawites are Shi'a Muslims. This apparently has fooled no one in Syria.

The Alawites comprise 12% of the population according to CountryWatch.com, whereas the Sunnis are 74% (Druse 3%, Christians 10%, Jews 1%). The Alawites control most of the top positions, and Baby Assad was challenged for the presidency by his uncle because, among other things, Uncle thought that Bashir wouldn't be ruthless enough to keep the Alawites on top.

So Baba Yaga and Yank should consider that the "Shi'a" are the Alawites and are already top dogs. We would want to appeal (carefully, as LiberalHawk notes) to the Sunni majority, making sure that we could control where they finally end up.

If one were devious, one could simply goad the Sunnis to stage a coup. Only problem is that until Daddy Assad hacked them at Hama, a lot of the Sunnis belong to the Muslim Brotherhood. The hard feeling would be useful to help orchestrate a coup, but we'd likely be replacing the Ba'athist party with a mullah-ocracy.

Posted by Steve White 2003-04-14 13:47:19|| 2003-04-14 13:47:19|| Front Page Top

#13 Liberalhawk:

Assad and much of the Syrian officer corps are actually Alawites, not Shiites. I cannot find a good web citation for what exactly Alawites are. Apparently they are a Middle Eastern mystery sect much given to borrowing from Shia Islam and Christianity. Neither the imams nor the bishops are much enamored of them.

Posted by 11A5S 2003-04-14 13:49:26|| 2003-04-14 13:49:26|| Front Page Top

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