Article

2004-03-15 Europe

Socialist victory may bolster al-Qaeda: analysts

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Posted by Dan Darling 2004-03-15 12:09:57 AM|| || Front Page|| [11133 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1
The Socialists long campaigned on a promise to withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq and so now they may do so without apology, with full political integrity. The Socialists' argument that Spain has no business involving itself in Iraq is reasonable and apparently has won the majority's agreement.

I expect that the new Socialist government will respond strongly and effectively to the terrorist bombing. The obvious main responses will be to drastically restrict immigration from Moslem countries into Spain, to deport illegal Moslems out of Spain, and to much more energetically spy on activities on Moslems who remain in Spain. With the Socialists in power and implementing these measures, there will be little political opposition to these measures.

In the long run, Spain might do more for the War on Terrorism by resisting Moslem immigration and criminality in Europe than it might by continuing to help the USA in Iraq.

Posted by Mike Sylwester 2004-3-15 1:07:47 AM|| 2004-3-15 1:07:47 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Don't agree Mike. The way to do more for the War on Terrorism is good offense, not just playing defense.

Posted by Tokyo Taro 2004-3-15 1:39:13 AM|| 2004-3-15 1:39:13 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 EUropeon left-wingers restricting immigration for Muslim countries, expelling illegal immigrant Muslims and spying on Muslim citizens in good standing? That would make Spain's Socialists RIGHT-WING EXTREMISTS. The EU would refuse to recognize the Spanish Socialists cum RIGHT-WING EXTREMISTS as a legitimate political entity. The question is: IF the carnage of Bloody Thursday is traced to indigenous left-wing terrorists who set of the bombs to influence the election on behalf of the Socialists, will the Spaniards demand an immediate re-do of the election?

Posted by Garrison 2004-3-15 1:48:21 AM|| 2004-3-15 1:48:21 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Mike S--

Wutchu smokin' dude? 'Cuz whatever it is, I want some of it! 'Cuz me, I'm still way bummed out by the spinach election, and I think you have to smokin' sumpin pretty heavy to hallucinate that the socialists-- the socialists???-- are gonna crack down hard on their izzies.

It is just not in the multi-culti "let's all sit down and talk our differences out" nature of the beast.

Face facts, Mike: Spain has capitulated, and we and the Spaniards (plus many others) are gonna be picking up the bloody pieces for some time to come.

Posted by WUZZALIB 2004-3-15 2:31:25 AM|| 2004-3-15 2:31:25 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 There is no other way to interpret the swing in Spain's vote than as a regime change perpetrated by Al Qaeda.

Posted by Karma 2004-3-15 4:33:48 AM|| 2004-3-15 4:33:48 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 agreed totally Karma, every other country involved in the fight against AQ is gonna get big booms right before elections now thanks to the fucking gutless spaniards,i say we fuckin nuke em for it, that way they won't be appeasing AQ again in a hurry,infact a 99% population reduction there would be a big help to us now

Posted by Jon Shep U.K 2004-3-15 4:39:54 AM|| 2004-3-15 4:39:54 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 Dammit, guys, this election in Spain is going to hurt us all. Europe, and lets include Tony, who will feel the pressure from his weaker folks to throw in the towell like Spain has done. They'll all want to sit around and tongue each other with multiculti harmony. Ahem, except the radical islama boys who are laughing up their sleeve. This is terrible news to me. I felt compassion for the Spaniards until today when I read the news. It stopped immediately. Damn, this is a bad break for President Bush and the rest of us Yanks. Time will tell. TW

Posted by Anonymous 2004-3-15 4:51:50 AM|| 2004-3-15 4:51:50 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 I'm in an apocalyptic mood today. A week ago I thought we would win the WoT even if it took one or two generations like the Cold War but we could do so by lots of small victories.

Today I think we will have to face up to traditional allies capitulating to terror as AQ now have tactic that manifestly works and I don't doubt that they will use it for years. Maybe it wont always work but it will work enough times to keep it in the arsenal for many years to come.

Yesterday was a bad day and I fear we will have much worse to come, until we reach a point that dramatic and violent lessons are required.

Someone here speaks of 'going medieval on them'. A week ago I thought that would never be required. Today I think it will be required within a couple of years.

Posted by Phil B 2004-3-15 6:10:44 AM|| 2004-3-15 6:10:44 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 With the next series of bombs in Spain (and there will be more eventually) the population may start to catch on.

Posted by Shipman 2004-3-15 7:17:34 AM|| 2004-3-15 7:17:34 AM|| Front Page Top

#10
Re: #2 The way to do more for the War on Terrorism is good offense, not just playing defense.

I agree, and I have written so in Rantburg. And I wish the Aznar government had been re-elected, because I appreciate that Aznar supported President Bush's offensive strategy in the War on Terrorism. Spain's support in Iraq was good while it lasted.

Let's not blame the socialists or the Spanish voters. They acted in a democratic manner and voted, among other long-debated issues, to withdraw Spanish soldiers from Iraq. They did not vote to submit to terrorists.

I am saying, let's look at this glass as half-full. I expect that the new Socialist government will couple the withdraw from Iraq with new, effective measures against Moslem terrorism inside Spain. I think there is now broad political support for such measures. If the Socialists had remained the opposition party, they would be tempted to resist such measures. Now that the Socialists lead the government, though, they will want to show that they can and will respond effectively to Moslem terrorism and to lawless Moslem immigration.

Posted by Mike Sylwester 2004-3-15 7:33:03 AM|| 2004-3-15 7:33:03 AM|| Front Page Top

#11 Tokyo taro, Mike and Phil B,
It is now clear that only the US, UK, Australia and the Israel are now left as western democracies who believe in the necessity of actively initiating an offensive against islamo- terrorism.
Politically and morally, the results of the Spanish elections are a blow to the efforts of GWB to enroll other European allies into the WoT.
I realy truely hope that the American voters now sober up and understand that voting for the fuzzy Democrat agenda is going to slide the US into a slippery slope of apologetic multicultural doom.
If Americans cannot read history clearly now, they will (together with the rest of Judeo-Christian Scientifically based civilization) experience a great decline.
While many in Old Europe were never very appreciative of their freedom, It may still be fresh in Americans' memory how hard they worked to gain and maintain their's.
May we all be united in protecting our common values.

Posted by Elder of Zion 2004-3-15 8:10:05 AM|| 2004-3-15 8:10:05 AM|| Front Page Top

#12 I would be very surprised if the American Left doesn't latch onto this leftward swing in Spanish politics as an illustrative example for US elections.

The leftists will be hoping even harder for a terrorist attack on US soil before November...

Posted by mjh 2004-3-15 8:38:13 AM|| 2004-3-15 8:38:13 AM|| Front Page Top

#13
the US, UK, Australia and the Israel are now left as western democracies who believe in the necessity of actively initiating an offensive

That might be so, EZ, but there is a big area for many defensive measures between the two extremes of 1) an offensive strategy and 2) abject surrender.

I would be happiest if Spain continued to support our active strategy in Iraq and also expelled its Moslem immigrants. When the Aznar government ruled, Spain did the former but not the latter. When the Socialist government takes over, Spain will not do the former but might really do the latter.

From where we stand in the War on Terrorism right now, we need Spain to resist Moslem immigration in Spain much more than we need Spain to help us guard sites in Iraq.

Posted by Mike Sylwester 2004-3-15 8:39:29 AM|| 2004-3-15 8:39:29 AM|| Front Page Top

#14 Mike S I just listened to Spain's new socialist PM. He is an old fashioned tranzi socialist. Statements like 'We will give immigrants the same rights as (Spanish) citizens'. No chance of expelling muslim immigrants IMHO.

EoZ please drop the handle if you want me to take you seriously.

Posted by Phil B 2004-3-15 8:47:33 AM|| 2004-3-15 8:47:33 AM|| Front Page Top

#15 "we need Spain to resist Moslem immigration in Spain much more than we need Spain to help us guard sites in Iraq."

Actually, what we really needed Spain to do was think before voting.

It doesn't matter what message the voters were trying to send, nor to whom. The message al-Qaeda will take from yesterday's fuckup is precisely the message they'd most like to hear: democracies can be made to run and hide if you bomb them right before an election. Intimidation works! Allah Akhbar!

Way to go, shitheads.

Posted by Dave D. 2004-3-15 8:50:53 AM|| 2004-3-15 8:50:53 AM|| Front Page Top

#16
democracies can be made to run and hide if you bomb them right before an election

That's why Spain has to stop Moslem immigration, deport Moslem illegal immigrants, and spy on the remaining Moslems.

We all are clear that al-Qaeda communicated to all Moslems that bombs can be effective weapons against modern democracies. We all are clear that this attack will encourage other Moslems to plan similar attacks.

We should also be clear, though, that Europe observed the same message and will react to defend itself. Europe won't send troops to help us in Iraq, but Europe certainly will take other measures to defend itself against Moslem terrorists.

This will not be a good time for Moslems who are trying to immigrate to Europe or who are trying to preach Moslem fundamentalist terror in Europe. Some European policies are going to change very drastically.

Posted by Mike Sylwester 2004-3-15 9:02:55 AM|| 2004-3-15 9:02:55 AM|| Front Page Top

#17 Phil B,
By All means take me seriously cuz I'm desperately
serious (EoZ)

Posted by Colton L. 2004-3-15 9:08:57 AM|| 2004-3-15 9:08:57 AM|| Front Page Top

#18 This will not be a good time for Moslems who are trying to immigrate to Europe or who are trying to preach Moslem fundamentalist terror in Europe. Some European policies are going to change very drastically.

Mike,
In Many countries what we should worry about is not stopping the moslem immigrants but coping with the 5-8 percent existing moslem immigrants that are already there.
At least in France it looks like a non-solvable problem because an 8 percent that multiply like rabbits are going to take over the country in 20-30 years. Belgium and the Netherlands are not in a much better position nowadays.
Making it tough for the arabs who are already there without socially assimilating them is not going to solve the problem (they probably do not want to assimilate anyhow).
It seems that sooner or later something is going to happen there.... I surely don't want to be in Europe when this situation blows in their faces.

Posted by Colton L. 2004-3-15 9:23:21 AM|| 2004-3-15 9:23:21 AM|| Front Page Top

#19 Colton L, Sorry but I am concerned that RB (doesnt) become a magnet for loony racists and we have had a spate the last few days. I don't know why they come here. Maybe they think cos we are right wing, we are therefore racists. Whereas nothing could be further from the truth.

Posted by Phil B 2004-3-15 9:25:26 AM|| 2004-3-15 9:25:26 AM|| Front Page Top

#20 CL I agree. Growing non-assimilated muslim minorities are a huge problem in Europe. They are waking up to the problem, but they are nowhere near a solution. BTW I've read that in the working age population moslems are between 10% and 12% of the total.

Posted by Phil B 2004-3-15 9:31:19 AM|| 2004-3-15 9:31:19 AM|| Front Page Top

#21 Mike S: That's why Spain has to stop Moslem immigration, deport Moslem illegal immigrants, and spy on the remaining Moslems.

From the Socialist standpoint, this makes no sense as an electoral strategy. The Muslims are probably providing them with their margin of victory. Why would they want to inhibit the arrival of more Muslims?

Posted by Zhang Fei 2004-3-15 9:44:43 AM|| 2004-3-15 9:44:43 AM|| Front Page Top

#22
#18 and #20:
Europe can't solve the problem immediately but will increase its resistance. Stopping Moslem immigration is better than not stopping it. Deporting Moslem illegal immigrants is better than not deporting them. Spying on Moslems is better than not spying on them.

The USA hasn't solved its problem either, but the actions we did take after Sep 11 -- restricting visas, mass arrests and deportations of illegal immigrants, and aggressive domestic intelligence -- have made a big difference. Similar measures in Europe will make a big difference there too.

Posted by Mike Sylwester 2004-3-15 9:44:56 AM|| 2004-3-15 9:44:56 AM|| Front Page Top

#23 Mark S and others are right: now that the Islamonazis have successfully swung an election, watch out USA - election year - and Australia - election year!

It was pathetic watching the UN jump all over the ETA theory with no proof. God help them if it's actually true that Islamonazis are the next fascist threat - they may have to stop pretending when it's Europe that's under attack.

Meanwhile China can sit back and relax while the Anglophone world wastes it's money and precious blood fighting fascism once again. It knows it can rule the survivor just by floating the Yuan.

I am afraid some days that the hate-America left is going to get it's chance to have a short-lived gloat over the downfall of the only barrier between us and Islamofascism. It's gonna end with a nuke (maybe more) and I just hope Pakistan haven't sold any to the Soddies as it's they are the mothership of Islamonazism.

Recommend: all citizens in allied countries undertake a first-aid course immediately - you may need to use it on your countrymen. I've done mine now you do yours.

If you are able and willing, join the army reserves to get basic training: you will need it one day.

If you are able, join a volunteer emergency organisation that trains in search and rescue. It's free it only costs time and a little effort. You may need these skills one day. If you don't have volunteer emergency services, join a group that provides similar skills: or start one!

It's up to US to keep our countries strong, each and every one of us. It's our responsibility too, to fight this war by being strong and smart and skilled.

Posted by Anon1 2004-3-15 9:49:17 AM|| 2004-3-15 9:49:17 AM|| Front Page Top

#24
The Muslims are probably providing them with their margin of victory.
The Socialists' main support are Spanish workers, who feel threatened by cheap immigrant labor and by immigrant criminals who live near their homes. When the Socialists propose anti-immigrant measures, nobody will oppose them.

Posted by Mike Sylwester 2004-3-15 9:49:34 AM|| 2004-3-15 9:49:34 AM|| Front Page Top

#25 Phil B
Dont worry about Loony racists, I was using the handle to make it clear that I am Jewish (and an Israeli) and as a way of having fun with Paleo trolls.
You are absolutely right about the percentage of moslems in the working age population in France. The problem is, they give them only the shitty menial jobs and most of them cannot find any high skill well paying jobs either because they don't have the qualifications or simply becuase the native French discriminate against them.
Either way, on the long term its a total disater.
Frankly, I would be surprised if this is resolved
in a non-violent way.

Posted by Colton L. 2004-3-15 9:54:15 AM|| 2004-3-15 9:54:15 AM|| Front Page Top

#26 Mike - you would be right if he would do anything to stop immigration - but what gives you reason to believe that he will do so? They have no more ability to get a handle in their immigration problems than we do here. Socialists here have pushed for granting illegal immigrants the ability to vote as well as access to all $erviceS that our country provides. How do you think that Spainish socialists will perform the miracle of funding bankrupt pensions and nanny state programs? It would be nice, but it isn't going to happen any time soon. Would you be willing to give up YOUR pension for a better tomorrow? I doubt it. I don't see any reason for your optimism in this regard.

I don't see any silver lining in these election results. The way I see it is that Europe is up the creek and just threw away one of its few remaining paddles.

Posted by B 2004-3-15 10:12:20 AM|| 2004-3-15 10:12:20 AM|| Front Page Top

#27
but what gives you reason to believe that he will do so [stop immigration]?
Because immigrants blew up four trains a few days ago. The situation has changed.
On September 10, 2001, the Bush administration was doing little to arrest and deport Moslem illegal immigrants. During the following months, hundreds were arrested and deported.

Posted by Mike Sylwester 2004-3-15 10:20:24 AM|| 2004-3-15 10:20:24 AM|| Front Page Top

#28 ZF the irony is that moslems in Spain represent a smaller proportion of the population than any other western european country and it is in the best position to stop the rot.

Posted by Phil B 2004-3-15 10:20:50 AM|| 2004-3-15 10:20:50 AM|| Front Page Top

#29 ah, the sky is falling, the sky is falling!

The election result was a bad thing. Losing Spanish troops in Iraq (it should be recalled that they wont go till June 30 - the new PM says they will if stay if the UN takes charge of the international forces - he hasnt said what happens in the more likely eventuality that NATO takes charge) will be missed, and this will make the coalition of the willing look narrower, hurting Iraq hawks in the US and Britain. And the precedent of AQ determining a European election with an act of terror is awful, and we can expect them to try it elsewhere.

BUT - Spain will STILL participate in the WOT, defensively at home, in the war on terror cells, on finances, the intell war, etc. Spain was always the weak spot in the coalition of the willing - of UK, Italy, Poland, Australia, Spain, it was Spain that had the highest poll numbers against the war in Iraq - Spain where the govt had gone out furthest ahead of the people. That Spain is giving up, after losses in Iraq, and a terror act on this scale, is hardly surprising. Im not sure AQ can pull off that many more of these, in Italy, Poland, the UK etc. Especially not if Spain and the EU again crack down on terror networks.

And im not sure this will matter that much in Iraq, if that is AQ's goal. At this point we're getting close to turnover there - what happens in Iraqi politics is more important now than multilateral support for the US. Reports indicate that some Shia leaders are opposing UN participation in Iraq - because UN rep was TOO PRO-US!!!!! The real political situation in Iraq has moved well beyond the pre-war debate. If AQ cant see that, they will waster their resouces on essentially fruitless attacks.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-3-15 10:41:26 AM|| 2004-3-15 10:41:26 AM|| Front Page Top

#30 LH cracking down can not solve the problem. The numbers just dont work. I cite as an example the IRA. The catholic population of N. Ireland at the start of the troubles in the late sixties was between 6 and 7 hundred thousand people. Lets assume the population from which the IRA recruits is males between 18 and 40 which means about a hundred thousand people. The British government arrayed against them police and security forces of at least 50 thousand and probably closer to a hundred thousand. The IRA had no problem planting bombs often 5 or 6 six in one day for many years. Plus shooting at security forces often dozen of times a day. I know I was there.

I repeat the numbers do not work. You have to put a policeman or soldier on the streets for every potential terrorist - not actual terrorist -potential terrorist. You can not defeat organized terrorists who have community support using police type actions, even if you do what the brits did - indefinite detention without trial, a large part of your army patrolling the streets and special forces assinating prime suspects. The numbers do not work!

This is a psychological war. A war of perceptions. The ONLY way to win it is to be resolute and not to flinch and to project complete confidence of victory. Yesterday was a huge loss because it showed where the vulnerability was and that vulnerability will now be ruthlessly exploited.

Posted by Phil B 2004-3-15 11:31:34 AM|| 2004-3-15 11:31:34 AM|| Front Page Top

#31 "Whatâs truly troubling is that this may be seen as a model by al-Qaeda and they may try to test it to see other countriesâ resolve."

DUH!!! The Islamonazis have nothing better to do than test their boundaries in prep for their next incursion. And at one time the Moslems feared the "Great Crusader Satan" Spain, so this victory mustâve been especially sweet for them.

âMany voters said they were angry that the incumbents were too quick to blame Basque separatists for the attacks.â

So, the Spaniards dig their own graves in âretaliationâ? What a way to use a vote. How stupid! I wonder if the Socialists and their supporters really know what they're in for, now that they have emboldened the Islamos.

âPaloma Galve, 50, a secretary at an engineering firm, said she narrowly missed being on one the trains and sees the bombings as fallout from Spainâs military alliances with Bush. "We suffered the consequences of the ambitions of Mr. Aznar," she said.â

The âambitionsâ of Aznar? Fighting terrorists is too âambitiousâ for the Spaniards? Maybe theyâd like SERVING their victors better. I know--how 'bout they trade places with the Sudanese Christians whom the Moslems have succeeded in enslaving?--all in the name of PEACE, (when there is no peace), of course. Or think of all the money to be made selling burkas to the women of Spain. A new industry for the Moslem immigrants. Maybe they'll get so busy with that, that they won't even want to blow things up. And the Moslems could hire a lot of working-class Spaniards to help them, and everything would just be so multi-cultural and lovely . . . it's a small world after all . . . (Garrison--I think you better hurry up.)

âSen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn. . . . warned the Europeans to remember history. "Anyone who thinks that if ... a nationâs troops stay out of a particular military conflict that theyâll be somehow protected from the fanatical Islamic terrorists, is just wrong," he said. "Thatâs the same kind of logic that led Neville Chamberlain in Munich to try to pacify Hitler in the late â30s. And obviously that didnât work," he said.

Wow. See, there IS hope for antiwar! And to think I actually have Joe to thank for keeping this from being a totally bum day. Will wonders never cease . . .

Posted by ex-lib 2004-3-15 11:59:23 AM|| 2004-3-15 11:59:23 AM|| Front Page Top

#32 phil B

Do not mistake me - I am NOT suggesting a war on terror fought on homeground alone, and if EVERY western state were to devote all resources to that, i would be troubled.

Im merely saying that we can afford the loss of Spain on the mideast transformation project, especially if they still contribute in other ways.

I would suggest that this war is fundamentally different from the war in Ulster. The IRA had the sympathy of the majority of the Catholic population in Ulster. I do not think AQ has the support of the majority of the muslim population in most areas.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-3-15 12:15:18 PM|| 2004-3-15 12:15:18 PM|| Front Page Top

#33 Phil B is right. Cracking down domestically is not going to win the WoT. I don't think they will just up and forget the WoT, but the best defense is a good offense in this war. As far as the Spanish troops go, let's be realistic, not to belittle the Spanish troops, but they were there more for moral support than anything. Their loss from a military standpoint is insignificant. What is significant is the precedent that the Spanish people just set for AQ. Democracies are going to be boomed and boomed hard before every election for the foreseeable future. October and November are going to be bloody.

Posted by AllahHateMe 2004-3-15 12:16:50 PM|| 2004-3-15 12:16:50 PM|| Front Page Top

#34 The majority of the electorate in Italy and Poland are against deployment of troops n Iraq also. Bombs there could provoke a parlimentary crisis (easy to do in Italy, I understand), a vote of no confidence, and a less agressive stance in the WoT. Remember that it was through terror-proxies that Middle Eastern governments were able to reduce European support for Israel in the late 1960's, leading directly to the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. The bombers in Spain have once again proven that these tactics work against the European electorate. Obviously the mullahs, Saudis, and secular leaders like Assad have taken note.

Europe saddens me. The statistics don't lie. Europe from Gibraltar to Moscow is simply failing to reproduce. At the same time they are cutting military expenditures and inviting in millions of immigrants to do their menial chores (we share this latter defect). With the exception of England, most of these immigrants lack paths to upward mobility. I don't see Muslim names in the European business press. I don't see Muslim names as MPs or ministers.

I have become convinced that Europe is the strategic decisive point, the Schwerpunkt, in this war, just as it was in the Cold War and WWII. If we can win there, we will win the war. If we lose, then we lose Africa, Central Asia, Oceania, and maybe even India. We need to defeat second international socialism and its attendant dependency. We need yeomen, not entitlement takers. I haven't figured out how to reach that goal yet, but I'm thinking awfully hard.

Posted by 11A5S 2004-3-15 12:40:35 PM|| 2004-3-15 12:40:35 PM|| Front Page Top

#35 Great thread, fun reads. Sylvester is right on.

Like I wrote yesterday, don't forget that this election just shows that Spain, like all EU, is divided. The PP was close to victory and aren't going to go away but the ABBA crowed was energized, the starz were bright Fernandor. Spain doesn't want to be known as the place Moh killed the dragon. Pacifists are energized is all.

The war moves to a new middle game. Certain positions have changed but the dynamics remain. No end game in sight yet. Funny but I would have thought that the bombings would have had an opposite effect.

We all know that this enemy has many heads. Until we start going after those heads, brutally like they do then we wait, defensively, for the next attack. Currently we are attacking in Afgn. But we need to hit the SA brains and deny it.

We need to have a plan(?) about Iran. Don't know why, but I think Pakland has a chance to solve it's problem.

Posted by Lucky 2004-3-15 1:34:20 PM|| 2004-3-15 1:34:20 PM|| Front Page Top

#36 Has anyone tried to remind the people of Spain that, in the minds of Islamists, their land -- al-Andalus -- has to be reclaimed for Dar al-Islam? It is the same for countries as with individuals: once in Islam, you can't opt out. Or do the Spaniards even care?

Posted by closet neo-con 2004-3-15 2:33:43 PM|| 2004-3-15 2:33:43 PM|| Front Page Top

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