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2006-03-14 International-UN-NGOs
Tinfoil alert??? March 20-26, 2006: Iran/USA - Release of global world crisis
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Posted by anonymous5089 2006-03-14 07:02|| || Front Page|| [11134 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 Btw, analysis at link, forgot to mention it.
Posted by anonymous5089 2006-03-14 07:18||   2006-03-14 07:18|| Front Page Top

#2 EU interest rates are low, so a below inflation return on the money converted from dollars.

The Euro is wobbly and inflation rampant in some countries but non-existant in others where the economy is also stagnant.

Basically this says one thing: Stagflation is coming to the Eurozone.
Posted by Bright Pebbles 2006-03-14 07:36||   2006-03-14 07:36|| Front Page Top

#3 Ahhhh the Rites of Spring ...
Posted by doc 2006-03-14 07:41||   2006-03-14 07:41|| Front Page Top

#4 Economic cycles certainly exist (for reasons I won't go into). However, I am deeply sceptical they can be used to predict an economic crisis in a particular week.
Posted by phil_b">phil_b  2006-03-14 07:47|| http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]">[http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]  2006-03-14 07:47|| Front Page Top

#5 The loss to us in the US is amplified to other countries whose currency is valued below ours. Russia and China stand to lose a lot more than we do on this sort of thing. Only the EUniks would profit from a euro based market. This makes little sense to me.
Posted by bigjim-ky 2006-03-14 08:01||   2006-03-14 08:01|| Front Page Top

#6 Are the eyetalians gonna drop out of the Euro that week?
Posted by 6 2006-03-14 08:28||   2006-03-14 08:28|| Front Page Top

#7 Two things have been running around the paranoid circles for a few months. On is the US no longer reporting how much liquidity is being put into the US currency markets and the other is the Iranians creating a new petroleum bourse.

Both of these things, and any other excuse, are being raised to project imminent economic disaster.

All are predicated on dual principals: first, that the governments of the world are blissfully unaware of any radical economic shifts that can be projected; and/or, second, that they either know and can do nothing about it, or they are powerless to do anything about it, no matter how much lead time they have to confront such things.

The bit about the US attacking Iran is based on the delusion that we would do this solely to stop them from creating a new oil market that we could not control.

I am not holding my breath for any of this to happen.
Posted by Anonymoose 2006-03-14 08:56||   2006-03-14 08:56|| Front Page Top

#8 The panic is that the United States is monetizing the debt by printing dollars. The net effect is to reduce the value of the dollar and creates inflation. The panic is based on the decision by the Fed to cease publication of M3. Here are the definitions of the various measures:

"M0 is all coins and paper bills. M1 is M0 plus all checking accounts. M2 is M1 plus savings accounts, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit of less than $100,000. M3 is M2 plus all deposits, euro dollars, and repurchase agreements that are $100,000 and larger."

The concern is that "Big money" manipulates the economy by moving around large dollar amounts exceeding $100,000 (to have a big effect), and thus is tracked by M3 via the repurchase agreements. By eliminating the publication of M3, the conspracists speculate that the Fed is trying to hide transactions intended to artificially boost the stock market. Here be the paranoid.. (A repurchase agreement is when the seller agrees to buy back the stock from the buyer at a later date. It is not really an increase in economic activity, but the speculation is that a massive purchase of a stock may trigger a band-wagon effect in which market watcher may believe that the stock is hot. Based on whats in the repurchase agreement, The buyers can opt to sell the stock on the market for a profit. The seller would be glad if that happens since it would take a loss on the re-purchase if the value of the stock went up.)

The obvious problem with this scenario is that M3 is a gross measure that never specified which stock purchases were based on repurchase agreements. Those "needing" this measure use it as an indication of whether a stock market boom is being fueled by manipulation or by a real growth in the markets.

You can't monetize the debt by printing more money or extending more credit without inflating M0 or M1.

Here's probably the REAL crisis: M3 was the only measure of the number of EUROS in the country, and the Fed is saying that Euros don't count anymore. This is a Euro think tank, so I imagine the panic is all about being regarded by the Fed as a financial non-entity.

The connection they propose is with Iran creating an oil stock market denominated by Euros, and they project an increase in the value of the Euro.

What they DON'T mention is that an increase in the value of the Euro makes exports more expensive relative to the Dollar, and it is EXPORTS that the Euros are counting on to pull themselves out of their economic doldrums.

For all we know, the Feds believe that the Euro may collapse, and are cutting out M3 to mask the effect of that collapse: if that measure goes down, it may casue a panic, and it may be politically unacceptable to state that the Euros f*cked up, and f*cked us up with them (That's State's turf, not the Fed's).

Finally, one has to wonder about what such a group is thinking when they view the Fall of the Iron Curtain and the liberation of hundreds of millions of human being as the second "most significant political crisis the world has ever known", with the position of MOST SIGNIFICANT happening to be reserved for THEIR PREDICTION.

Personally, My concern is that monitoring of repurchase agreements may cease, and we will have stock manipulations a-la Enron. Such purchases should NOT be counted by the Stock Market because it obscures the signals that the market is sending.
Posted by Ptah">Ptah  2006-03-14 09:24|| http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org]">[http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org]  2006-03-14 09:24|| Front Page Top

#9 We need a picture of a guy in a suit saying the end of the world is near! I was a bit set back that they did not put the whole blame on the US and I hate sharing the blame for the end of the world with some half baked nation like Iran!

With the departure of Mr Greenspan, the economic world is trying to figure out what's next. This reads to me like a poor attempt at fear mongering propaganda. James Ellul would be disapointed in how loose this agruement is. The only people who will believe this is the coffee shop gossipers who hope to see the US fall.
Posted by 49 Pan">49 Pan  2006-03-14 10:11||   2006-03-14 10:11|| Front Page Top

#10 An Euro is not an eurodollar.
Posted by Spotle Chomose9057 2006-03-14 10:29||   2006-03-14 10:29|| Front Page Top

#11 Sounds like an opportunity to buy.
Now where's that tax return ?
Posted by wxjames 2006-03-14 10:30||   2006-03-14 10:30|| Front Page Top

#12 Thank you for the in-depth analysis, Ptah. Very illuminating.

One question, after Enron, World Crossing and all their ilk, why is it that the Fed is now making it easier for artificial stock run-ups (repurchase agreements) to mask authentic market activity? This would seem to be a return to the bad old days.
Posted by Zenster 2006-03-14 11:30||   2006-03-14 11:30|| Front Page Top

#13 Image hosting by Photobucket

"Greetings, my friends. We are all interested in the future, for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives. And remember my friends, future events such as these will affect you in the future. You are interested in the unknown... the mysterious. The unexplainable. That is why you are here. And now, for the first time, we are bringing to you, the full story of what happened on that fateful day. We are bringing you all the evidence, based only on the secret testimony, of the miserable souls, who survived this terrifying ordeal. The incidents, the places. My friend, we cannot keep this a secret any longer. Let us punish the guilty. Let us reward the innocent. My friend, can your heart stand the shocking facts of grave robbers from outer space?"
Posted by Anonymoose 2006-03-14 12:33||   2006-03-14 12:33|| Front Page Top

#14 TOPS MOOSE! LOL!
Posted by RD 2006-03-14 12:44||   2006-03-14 12:44|| Front Page Top

#15 Here's a good explanation of what a Eurodollar is.
Posted by 11A5S 2006-03-14 13:26||   2006-03-14 13:26|| Front Page Top

#16 Thanks Zenster.

It seems to me that records ARE being kept of repurchase agreements: otherwise, how could they be factored in as a part of M3? I think the SEC, not the Federal Reserve, is monitoring that stuff, since preserving the signalling capability of the market is their balliwick.

But you are exactly right: abandoning monitoring of repurchasing agreements and allowing the stock to be factored into total stockmarket sales will create an Enron-style situation for abuse. In Enron, they cooked the books, while in this situation, they're heating and cooling the market. The moonbats I cited believe there is a shadowy government council whose job is to engage in repurchasing agreements to artificially goose the economy for political reasons. The complaint, by the way, was that by eliminating M3, the critic's ability to detect such artifical goosing PREVENTS THEM FROM HITCHING A RIDE ON THE STOCK PRICE RISE. I.e. they do not object to stock market manipulation. They object to losing what they consider an indicator of when its happening so they can take advantage of it well.
Posted by Ptah">Ptah  2006-03-14 13:52|| http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org]">[http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org]  2006-03-14 13:52|| Front Page Top

#17 It worries me that someone in Vidalia knows this stuff. :> Remind me never to dabble in sweet onion futures.
Posted by 6 2006-03-14 18:27||   2006-03-14 18:27|| Front Page Top

#18 Thanx 6. ;)
Posted by Ptah">Ptah  2006-03-14 20:37|| http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org]">[http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org]  2006-03-14 20:37|| Front Page Top

#19 Happy Persian New Year Everyone!
Posted by Rafael 2006-03-14 20:45||   2006-03-14 20:45|| Front Page Top

#20 In quick AL Bundy English, the Euros are demanding to be invaded and saved by Dubya and the Marines.
Posted by JosephMendiola 2006-03-14 21:27||   2006-03-14 21:27|| Front Page Top

#21 No Rouz is a little bit later
Posted by Frank G">Frank G  2006-03-14 22:13||   2006-03-14 22:13|| Front Page Top

#22 23rd IIRC this year
Posted by Frank G">Frank G  2006-03-14 22:13||   2006-03-14 22:13|| Front Page Top

10:50 mmurray821
23:59 Snuns Thromp1484
23:58 JosephMendiola
23:49 phil_b
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23:41 DMFD
23:36 trailing wife
23:30 lotp
23:28 DMFD
23:27 Angump Slomosing6697
23:19 Formerly Dan
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22:49 JosephMendiola
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