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2004-03-08 Home Front: Politix

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Posted by zack 2004-03-08 10:09:11 AM|| || Front Page|| [11130 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 It is considered to being a very good test of how well a candidate is going in a very close state like Florida.

Posted by Anonymous 2004-3-8 10:55:51 AM|| 2004-3-8 10:55:51 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 I don't think I'd put a whole lot of credence on a poll by the newspapers that predicted a Gore blowout in Florida in the 2000 race, especially one taken seven months before the election. If the numbers are the same or similar in October, then I think you might have something. I expect the Cuban and Haitian crowd in Florida were quietly excluded from the poll, while the retirement community was vastly over-represented. There's still a lot of time, and a lot can change. Kerry wasn't even supposed to be IN the race in January...

Posted by Old Patriot 2004-3-8 11:01:29 AM|| [http://users.codenet.net/mweather/default.htm] 2004-3-8 11:01:29 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Easy to get poll results you want by only polling in areas where you can guess the results ahead of time. Plus they polled registered voters rather than likely voters. Kerry has had an easy ride so far, no one really beat him up during the primaries. That time is over.

Posted by Steve 2004-3-8 11:13:36 AM|| 2004-3-8 11:13:36 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Polls taken this early are not indicative of much. While the Democrats have been in the news almost constantly for nearly a year, Bush has not even really begun to campaign.

One thing I've noticed again and again over the last three years: Bush's poll numbers take a jump practically every time he opens his mouth and says anything.

Posted by Dave D. 2004-3-8 11:52:49 AM|| 2004-3-8 11:52:49 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 This poll is entirely meaningful and is very grim news for Kerry. If Kerry can't do better than 49% after months of bashing Bush and all Democrat news during the primaries, and before the average voters knows about his Jane Fonda ties and flip-flops. He's doomed when the facts start to come out.

I predict a blow-out in Bush's favor in 04.

Posted by ruprecht 2004-3-8 12:13:41 PM|| 2004-3-8 12:13:41 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 Kerry is trying to STEAL the elections! LOL If the The Miami Herald says they are dead even you can bet Bush has at least a single digit lead (or better) over Kerry. They also predicted that Gov. Bush would be thrown from office in 2002. For his 'handling' of the re-vote/recount fiascal. I bet the poll was conducted on the staff at the two newspapers! That would be about right!

Posted by Cyber Sarge (VRWC CA Chapter) 2004-3-8 12:16:25 PM|| 2004-3-8 12:16:25 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 This is a case of Kerry running against Bush in the guise of unnamed Democratic Candidate. Once the Florida electorate (excepting Leon, Broward, Alachua and Palm Beach counties) learns a little about the Senator it's curtains.

Posted by Shipman 2004-3-8 12:28:35 PM|| 2004-3-8 12:28:35 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 Conservatives don't participate in phone polls. Neither do classic liberals.

Posted by Classic_Liberal 2004-3-8 1:12:06 PM|| 2004-3-8 1:12:06 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 800 out of all of florida..need a little more than 800 to accurately gauge the public...one important aspect left out is what county this was polled? a few dozen from each county or was it all in Dade?Banana Repulic of Florida........

Posted by Dan 2004-3-8 1:32:15 PM|| 2004-3-8 1:32:15 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 Conservatives don't participate in phone polls. Neither do classic liberals.

Nor does anyone with caller ID and a answering machine. I let the machine answer if I don't recognize who's calling, get a dozen a day who hang up when they get the machine. Pollsters report that this is a growing problem, few people answer the phone anymore.

Posted by Steve 2004-3-8 1:32:59 PM|| 2004-3-8 1:32:59 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 shipman --

the article didn't say that they asked about "Bush -v- any Democrat." It's poorly worded, but I imagine the question was straight-up Bush -v- Kerry.

That said, 800 is not a lot. It was the Miami Herald and a St. Petersburg paper. They most likely polled only in their immediate area, which is not representative of Florida as a whole (the weirdest state in the country).

And Florida is not the '04 swing state to worry about. This time, it's Ohio.

Posted by growler 2004-3-8 1:55:01 PM|| 2004-3-8 1:55:01 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 This time, it's Ohio.

Southwest Ohio is SOLIDLY Republican, excepting the very cores of Cincinnati and Dayton. The rest of the state is confused, though, and are responsible for the RINOs we sent to the Senate.

On the other hand, those Senate seats used to be held by Democrats, and the governor is another RINO. Who knows what will happen in the next few months?

Posted by Robert Crawford 2004-3-8 3:59:31 PM|| [http://www.kloognome.com] 2004-3-8 3:59:31 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 Yes Growler correct... meant to say that in this case the Senator has the same aspects of the unnamed democratic opponent.... by default. It is straight up.. but the Senators name recognition in Florida is still in the 30% range. I'm not being clear.. What I mean is the Senator is getting the same results as an unnamed Democratic opponent. Once Kerry is recognized (and labeled) it's curtains.

Posted by Shipman 2004-3-8 5:20:31 PM|| 2004-3-8 5:20:31 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 1)Florida has been a heavy target of Anti-Bush Move-On ads since December.
2)Similar bunch of polls have Gov.Bush very popular(Pres.brother)despite worries over economy.
3)Florida usually has large number absentee ballots(tend heavily Rep.-why Gore didn't want them counted),which cannot be polled by phone.
4)St.Pete Times is a liberal paper and like most liberal papers'polls the Republican vote does get undercounted and the Demo vote gets overestimated.
%)IMHO the first debate will probably decide the election.If Kerry comes across the tube as arrogant,condescending and w/nothing to offer other than he's not Bush,Kerry's toast.If Bush shows command of the facts,is relaxed and appears at ease w/himself and the viewers,he's reelected.

Posted by Stephen 2004-3-8 5:21:40 PM|| 2004-3-8 5:21:40 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 And yes RC Ohio and the Valley are ground zero.

Posted by Shipman 2004-3-8 5:21:42 PM|| 2004-3-8 5:21:42 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 Aris - if that's you (anonymous) code words are--protect Social Security and Medicare benefits.--

Senior citizens - lots of them down there because of the weather AND no personal income tax. 7 states don't have personal/state tax and FLA is one of them. Even Ted Turner changed his homestead to FLA to save money.

Lots of RICH senior citizens, especially from New York, if you get my drift. Visit some day, you'll never see more Caddies and Lincolns in your life. Got to know the demos before you can play.

St. Petersburg and Miami - dems.

HOWEVER - lots of armed forces down there who will hopefully make sure their votes are in on time and every "i" dotted and "t" crossed this time. And no more you can't leave the base to vote nonsense.

Rumor last time was lots of votes still on ships out at sea.

Posted by Anonymous2U 2004-3-8 8:38:41 PM|| 2004-3-8 8:38:41 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 Drudge is linking to this story at Yahoo about FL. that Kerry will legally challenge the vote in Fl. Exerpts:

John Kerry is determined not to lose Florida's 27 electoral votes in a swamp of recounts and recriminations this fall, vowing to mount an early legal challenge in any district that might repeat the problems that bedeviled Democratic supporters in 2000.

Responding to a voter who asked, "What can you do to prevent them from stealing the election again?", Kerry, a lawyer and former Massachusetts prosecutor, said his campaign was assembling a legal team to examine districts which had problems.

"We're going to pre-check it, we're going to have the legal team in place. ... We're going to take injunctions where necessary ahead of time. We'll pre-challenge if necessary,"

The thoughts that came to mind when I read this was: 1. Does that mean every military vote will be immediately challenged? 2. Does this mean that in FL there will be the same legal team that was up in SD in 2002 making sure the voting was correct and just happened to find nonexistent people to vote?

Posted by AF Lady 2004-3-8 8:54:54 PM|| 2004-3-8 8:54:54 PM|| Front Page Top

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