Article

2006-03-02 India-Pakistan

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Posted by Dan Darling 2006-03-02 04:26|| || Front Page|| [11136 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 This is very good news for the largest and the most powerful democracies in the world. I wonder why it took so long.

Posted by Annon 2006-03-02 05:50|| 2006-03-02 05:50|| Front Page Top

#2 Because it is not at all clear that this is a good idea. Why won't India sign the NPT, for example? It is in the same class as North Korea, a non-signatory nation developing nukes.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-03-02 08:33|| 2006-03-02 08:33|| Front Page Top

#3 China and Pakistan, phear our nuke deals! BRUHAHAHAHA!!!

Posted by mmurray821 2006-03-02 10:12|| 2006-03-02 10:12|| Front Page Top

#4 Why won't India sign the NPT, for example?

Because it cannot sign as a nuclear weapons state.
Signing the NPT would require it to sign as a non nuclear weapons state and give up its arsenal.

India will not do this while China has the bomb.

Posted by john 2006-03-02 11:03|| 2006-03-02 11:03|| Front Page Top

#5 You need to bear in mind that China attacked India in 1962 and still occupies Indian territory.

The Indian and Chinese forces are eyeball to eyeball on the LAC (the line of actual control) and the countries have come close to war on several occasions since.

China claims two of India's states as its own territory.

You're not goinf to get India to accept being defenceless against a Chinese strike.

Posted by john 2006-03-02 11:13|| 2006-03-02 11:13|| Front Page Top

Posted by john 2006-03-02 11:14|| 2006-03-02 11:14|| Front Page Top

#7 Because it cannot sign as a nuclear weapons state.

Why not? And even if there is some rational reason, why not say that they will abide with the NPT provisions with us?

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-03-02 11:18|| 2006-03-02 11:18|| Front Page Top

#8 Uhh, but cooperating? What does that mean? I'll show you mine if you show me yours? Sounds like sharing. Does that mean we are in some way engaging in prolifiation ourselves?

Not really sure.

If so, then yes they could sign and say "yep, we be just like them "yanquee sahibs".

Like the toon, though.

Posted by kelly 2006-03-02 12:04|| 2006-03-02 12:04|| Front Page Top

#9 I don't like the taste of this deal. I don't like negotiating with a country that allows leaders within it's borders to make claims such as to impose death threats to the cartoonist in recent months.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,18220608-38197,00.html

I feel we need to stop having money dictate our fate. I would like to think our leaders would put integrity and safety issues first.

Posted by Jan 2006-03-02 12:46|| 2006-03-02 12:46|| Front Page Top

#10 They didn't get to be 'our leaders' with the application of integrity.
If we had an honest, realistic way of electing representation, then we may have great leaders rather than womanizers, and other professional politicians.

Posted by wxjames 2006-03-02 12:54|| 2006-03-02 12:54|| Front Page Top

#11 The truth hurts I just hope we survive it all

Posted by Jan 2006-03-02 13:00|| 2006-03-02 13:00|| Front Page Top

#12 I got up with a depressing thought today: Jesus said God would protect us from evil, but said nothing about stupidity...

Posted by Ptah">Ptah 2006-03-02 13:39|| http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org]">[http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org] 2006-03-02 13:39|| Front Page Top

#13 Why not?

The NPT only allows those states that tested weaons before January 1967 te be classified as Nuclear Weapon States.

India tested in 1974 and again in 1998.
It does not qualify as a Nuclear Weapon State under the NPT.

Hence it will not sign the treaty.

Posted by john 2006-03-02 13:57|| 2006-03-02 13:57|| Front Page Top

#14 Gosh, John - are you going to insist on confusing us with facts?

Posted by too true 2006-03-02 14:02|| 2006-03-02 14:02|| Front Page Top

#15 It however has better non proliferation credentials than many other NPT members.

It has not shared its technology with other states.

And it has a lot of technology that other states would want.

It has full nuclear cycle technology. It mines its own ore, makes fuel assemblies, builds its own heavy water reactors, makes heavy water, reprocesses spent fuel rods to extract the plutonium, vitifies the waste for long term storage, makes MOX fuel, builds fast breeders to make more Pu and U233, has uranium enrichment centrifuge cascades etc.

It has various accelerator programs, its own inertial confinement and superconducting Tokamaks for fusion research.

And it has the bomb technology, both boosted fission and staged thermonuclear devices.
And the means to deliver them... it builds one of the largest solid fuel rocket boosters in the world. Its PSLV deploys multiple satellites in different orbits (implying MIRV tech).

The question is, to quote LBJ, do you want India "inside the tent pissing out or outside the tent pissing in" ?

Would you prefer it buy yellowcake from North Korea or from Canada?

Posted by john 2006-03-02 14:09|| 2006-03-02 14:09|| Front Page Top

#16 What India wants from this deal is (a) large (1000 MW) light water reactors from the US for its civilian power grid.

The reactors and their enriched uranium fuel would be under IAEA safeguards. The spent fuel would be sent back to the country of origin for reprocessing.

(b) yellowcake to fuel the Indian heavy water reactors that use natural uranium fuel.

Most of these reactors would be placed on the civilian list.
India will keep some for militray use since the HWRs produce weapon grade plutonium when used in low burnup mode. India has develope a process of detritiating heavy water. It can produce Tritium (used to boost a fission primary) quie cheaply and needs enough reactors for this as well.

(c) plutonium for seeding the Indian fast breeders. India has the second largest reserves of Thorium. The Thorium breeders need plutonium (basically a source of neutrons) to produce Uranium 233 fuel.

Posted by john 2006-03-02 14:18|| 2006-03-02 14:18|| Front Page Top

#17 This Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is as good as most UN sponsored treaties. After all, Iran and North Korea signed it.

Extracts from http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/npt/

In 1994, the United States and North Korea signed an "Agreed Framework" bringing North Korea into full compliance with its non-proliferation obligations under the NPT. North Korea affirmed its NPT member status and committed to allow implementation of its IAEA safeguards agreement.

The NPT is the most widely accepted arms control agreement. As of early 2000 a total of 187 states were Parties to the NPT. Cuba, Israel, India, and Pakistan were the only states that were not members of the NPT.

Posted by SwissTex 2006-03-02 15:31|| 2006-03-02 15:31|| Front Page Top

#18 We've had India outside the tent for almost 30 years so leaving it there doesn't frighten me. My concerns are less with India than with Brazil, Argentina, and other large mid level powers. They are seeing India, in effect, being rewarded for not signing or abiding by the NPT. What lesson do they draw from that? At the minimum we should be making India start abiding by the NPT provisions as though it had been a nuclear power when the treaty was drawn. We also have a hard time justifying to Pakistan why they don't get the same treatment India does. And I think it's a bad idea to sell Pakistan a clock with Radium hands.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-03-02 15:46|| 2006-03-02 15:46|| Front Page Top

#19
What are these NPT provisions that you feel India should abide by?

I have read the entire NPT text and there is nothing there that India is in violation of.

It just never signed the treaty.

It has not transferred nuclear weapon technology to any country.

Leaving India outside the tent is problematic.

The Indian northern power grid collapsed last year.
It badly needs power reactors, coal fired thermal plants etc. In the budget yesterday, there was money allocated for 5 massive coal burning power plants as well as 4 new heavy water reactors.

But India, while it has enormous reserves of coal (though low quality - high ash) it has limited supplies of Uranium.

What does it do when the Uranium runs out?

It can't buy from Canada or Australia.

Suppose it turned to North Korea or Iran for fuel?
Do you really want Indian engineers in Iran helping them increase Uranium output ?

Do you want them collaborating in any form with scientists from Iran? Or would you prefer they work with US and European scientists?

President Bush just cleared the way for India to join the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. India will contribute 1/10th of the cost and build some of the instruments (India built some of the detectors for the Large Hadron Collider at CERN).

He clearly wants them inside the tent.

Posted by john 2006-03-02 17:01|| 2006-03-02 17:01|| Front Page Top

#20 I have read the entire NPT text and there is nothing there that India is in violation of.

Now.

Are they promising to abide by it in the future?

And what about the lesson this sends to all the other players? That whenever America doesn't like a treaty it just modifies it and everybody else has to go along? It seems to me it would have been better to get India added to the NPT as a Nuclear Power and have everybody ratify the amendment.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-03-02 17:12|| 2006-03-02 17:12|| Front Page Top

#21 Pakistan doesn't get the same treatment until the ISI cuts off support for Al Qaeda/Taliban/Kashmiri terrorists, and closes its borders to terror group excursions into India and Pakistan. President Musharref's bluster notwithstanding.

At least, I hope so.

Posted by trailing wife 2006-03-02 17:37|| 2006-03-02 17:37|| Front Page Top

#22 India recently reinforced its nuclear technology trade laws to prevent any transfer of tech.
So it does intend to abide by the NPT

India cannot join the NPT as a nuclear power.
The NPT itself, which was extended in perpetuity, has no provision for this.

Amending the treat itself would not succeed.
China and other countries would block it.
This would also break the informal agreements made with countries like Japan when they signed the NPT.

This deal does not modify or violate the NPT.
Which is why the IAEA and El Baradei are so enthusiatic.

There is a lot of noise about this from people who have not read the actual treaty.

Posted by john 2006-03-02 17:38|| 2006-03-02 17:38|| Front Page Top

#23 These countries are not in the same category as India.

Pakistan has nothing like the energy requirments of India.
Their technology level is also quite low.

Pakistan has yet to manufacture even a high speed lathe, or a tractor.

North Korea has yet to design even a bicycle
(they recently started a factory to make bicyles using Chinese technology).

India does Laser intertial confinement fusion research.
It operates Kamini - the only U233 fueled reactor in the world.
It is building advanced fast breeder reactors.

And size matters... India is 1/6 th of the planet's population.
You really want to compare 1/6th of the world, with their legitimate energy (power reactors) and security (nuke weapons) needs, and essentially rogue states like Pakistan?

Posted by john 2006-03-02 17:46|| 2006-03-02 17:46|| Front Page Top

#24 I got up with a depressing thought today: Jesus said God would protect us from evil, but said nothing about stupidity...

That's a depresser.

/m4d

Posted by 6 2006-03-02 17:53|| 2006-03-02 17:53|| Front Page Top

#25 They recently started a factory to make bicyles using Chinese technology

That does it; I'm back into pro cycling, baby!

Posted by Lance Armstrong 2006-03-02 20:02|| 2006-03-02 20:02|| Front Page Top

#26
Rantburg has a weapon of mass intel.

thanks again John.

/cheer up 6

Posted by RD 2006-03-02 21:28|| 2006-03-02 21:28|| Front Page Top

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