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2006-01-25 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Military Strikes and a Democratic Future for Iran

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Posted by anonymous5089 2006-01-25 14:07|| || Front Page|| [11 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 I foresee a different future for Iran. For unlike in Iraq, where disparate peoples are held together by being "Iraqis"; Iran is a different story altogether.

Iran is so utterly dominated by the Shiites that it is doubtful if true democracy could overcome the equivalent sickness that the Sunnis suffered from in Iraq. For on top of their feelings of religious-ethnic primarcy, the Shiites also have a popular desire and belief that they should dominate the region.

In other words, even in a true democracy, the Iranian Shiites still want nuclear weapons, regional or even world power, and "their place in the sun", as did the Japanese in WWII.

The Japanese had to be slaughtered unmercifully before this lust was broken. And if Iran were to be successful, as Japan was at the beginning, they too would have to die in their millions.

But if Iran is defeated quickly, a different solution is forthcoming: the partitioning of Iran. That its Kurdish territories become part of greater Kurdistan, still part of Iraq; its Arabic territories, almost evenly divided between Shiite and Sunni, become part of southern Iraq, or become a separate Gulf democratic-Emirate; and that Baluchistan become part of a greater Baluchistan, either as a new nation, or as an adjunct to Pakistan.

Iran, reduced in size, would still not be wholly Shiite, and it would no longer dominate the Middle East, instead be more of a partner to it. And while it might be resentful of losing much of its oil reserves, it would be far less restentful, over time, of losing huge blocs of hated and restless minorities.

Posted by Anonymoose 2006-01-25 15:44|| 2006-01-25 15:44|| Front Page Top

#2 Other than through word of mouth, which is unreliable and could lead us into a deadly mistake, what reason do we have to believe that the majority of Iranians want to overthrow the regime? This is the popular "buzz", but how true is it? We have lived enough to know that building a policy based on gossip, no matter how widespread, is a fool's mission.

Talk to an average Iranian-see how different his view of Jews is from that of Iran's president (not very). How many millions of people live in Iran and yet they are powerless to overthrow the radical mullahs? Perhaps they don't do it because the sacrifice is viewed as something someone else should take for them (like the US) and so they will remain impassive until that happens, or perhaps in their hearts they agree with the theocracy more than we may realize?

I honestly don't know; my point is that it is difficult to guage just how much energy and commitment Iranians have for changing the status quo.

Posted by Jules 2 2006-01-25 18:29|| 2006-01-25 18:29|| Front Page Top

#3 The question is not the willingness of the average Iranian to overthrow the government but the willingness of the elites to continue to do what is necessary to stay in power. The Soviet Union was not overthrown from the bottom as that the hollowness of its elites was exposed by it. The MMs are still willing to do whatever is required to stay in power to do Allan's will. Fry 'em up.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2006-01-25 19:41|| 2006-01-25 19:41|| Front Page Top

#4 Sure wish we still had some of Sam's thingys in the stockpile...

Posted by .com 2006-01-25 19:50|| 2006-01-25 19:50|| Front Page Top

Posted by DMFD 2006-01-25 20:29|| 2006-01-25 20:29|| Front Page Top

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