Article

2007-01-20 Iraq

Think We're Losing Iraq? Take a Look at the Dinar

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Posted by Steve White 2007-01-20 00:00|| || Front Page|| [3 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 J. Paul Bremer should get the lion's share of the credit for the incredibly difficult and unrewarding job of laying the foundation for Iraq's economy in the future.

Taking a page from MacArthur's restoration of Japan, but doing him one better, Bremer has assured, all else being equal, that Iraq will be the powerhouse of the Middle East in the future.

Ironically, what he did will become textbook for nation building in other countries. For example, since Iraq was a "tabula rasa", a blank slate, he could choose from the very best economic innovations and practices from around the world, with utter pragmatism.

Even better, in other countries, those practices were never "perfect", because of the process they had to go through to be used in the first place. Unnecessary baggage that inhibited them, and mistakes made in innovating them.

But in Iraq's case, Bremer had the ideal situation found only in games like "Sim City", except as created by the finest capitalist economists in the world, in Bremer's opinion.

So Iraq has been given the best in the Middle East in banking and finance, stock markets, insurance and currency. Again, all else being equal, all it needs is time and some degree of stability.

Eventually, I expect the Iraqi Dinar to be one of the top currencies in the world, and their stock market to be followed as closely as the DOW and NASDAQ.

Posted by Anonymoose 2007-01-20 09:36|| 2007-01-20 09:36|| Front Page Top

#2 And if the GWOT (and Iraq Campaign) are going so badly, why is the price of oil dropping? The Dow is high and unemployment low, so it's not that the US economy is collapsing and dropping demand for oil. And if the US economy is strong, the world economy can't be but so bad. Conservation efforts are a slow process. That leaves increased supply (Sunni Gulf nations putting economic pressure on Iran via the oil pump?) and decreased risk perception as major factors. Either or both signal progress on the Islamofascist front.

Posted by Glenmore">Glenmore 2007-01-20 10:57|| 2007-01-20 10:57|| Front Page Top

#3 Oddly enough especially in light of what Glenmore says petroleum demand dropped last year. I can't tell if that's just imports or drawdowns from inventory tho.

Posted by Shipman 2007-01-20 12:04|| 2007-01-20 12:04|| Front Page Top

#4 From the link above
Jet fuel demand declined by 2.8 percent to 1.6 million barrels a day, as airlines conserved fuel as best they could.
That's about 10 times what what Nazi Germany ran Europe with.

Posted by Shipman 2007-01-20 12:25|| 2007-01-20 12:25|| Front Page Top

#5 For some reason, Shipman, I'm not able to get your link to load. Anyways, it seems that I remember reading somewhere that in late 2005/early 2006, when gas here was over $3/gallon (and for at least a quarter, or maybe even 6 months) that China's demand had dropped by 1/3! They just simply couldn't afford it. India was probably in the same boat. That probably carried over and impacted the total somewhat.

Add to that the fact that an entire city (New Orleans) pretty much lost every single car (and bus) in it's perimeter. Those who stayed behind in Mississippi didn't fare any better. These "little things" add up to some serious drop in demand (worldwide).

Posted by BA 2007-01-20 20:43|| 2007-01-20 20:43|| Front Page Top

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