Article

2005-01-17 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

Fatal gap in tsunami warning system [You'll never guess]

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Posted by Zenster 2005-01-17 2:00:33 AM|| || Front Page|| [6 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 And you'll notice that not a SINGLE bureaucrat, on either side, was willing to circumvent THE OFFICIAL SYSTEM by using a device called "the telephone" to call Tsunami-affected area news media or anyone else. A single person, even calling a countries telephone "information", could have been connected to a few others who could have saved tens of thousands of their countrymen.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-01-17 9:42:31 AM|| 2005-01-17 9:42:31 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 It isn't that simple, Moose. Suppose I had been at the seismograph station when the quake registered here. I wasn't but I might have been. We would have localized it within a couple of minutes. What then? I could have done a quick google search, gotten the relevant numbers in, say, Thailand and started calling: "Hello? Is this the Bangkok Gazette? Good, this is Dr. R in Texas. There has just been a magnitude 9.5 earthquake in the Andaman Sea west of you. God's Own Breaker is headed your way. You have 30 minutes to get everyone off the beaches." -click- buzzzzzz.
The same would have happened if I had called the Ministry of the Interior or Defense or whatever. Someone did warn the Ministry of Tourism, but they decided not to issue a public alert, lest the tourists stampede out and never come back.
The problem is not just warning, it is credible warning. The world is full of cranks. Those with the power to order evacuations must be absolutely sure who is warning them, where their information comes from, and what their credentials are. Without prior arrangements, verifying all this just takes too long.
The same will happen if astronomers detect an asteroid on a collision course with a short warning time. If it's a matter of hours rather than weeks or months, it could easily be too late by the time the authorities, who are not astronomers, figure out that it's real.

Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2005-01-17 12:46:54 PM|| 2005-01-17 12:46:54 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 AC - That's a good point about being believed. I was a geologist and I knew the moment I heard about the quake they're probably be a tsunami of some kind, big or small. That was too big a quake not to have one.

I also knew about the Pacific warning system and figured there would be a warning passed out. Didn't realize that the Pacific system was unique, though, and apparently "local".

Even if I had, I have no idea who to call. "Hey, Thailand, this LotR, and I saw on TV about the quake and I also know from my book-learnin' that there's gonna be some waves. Maybe big'uns. Ya'll clear out dem people out."

At the very least these countries should provide a phone number to the Pacific warning center so they can get called. The Pacific system knew about the quake, but they classified their alert on no danger to the Pacific. They at least could tell other parts of the world to watch out, and be believed by somebody in authority in each country.

Posted by Laurence of the Rats 2005-01-17 12:58:35 PM|| [http://www.punictreachery.com/] 2005-01-17 12:58:35 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 But the Governments around the Indian Ocean rejected repeated pressure from Unesco and other UN bodies for a tsunami early-warning system in their area because it was expensive, they had many calls on their resources and there had been no tsunamis in the ocean for more than 100 years.

Here in CA, even safe drivers are required to carry insurance.

Posted by Bomb-a-rama 2005-01-17 1:20:38 PM|| 2005-01-17 1:20:38 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 Senior UN officials...

I wonder how many tales of incompetence and misery start with just those words?

Posted by SteveS 2005-01-17 6:21:36 PM|| 2005-01-17 6:21:36 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 b.a.r Wait till you get hit by an illegal ~~Mexican~~ with a license.

Posted by Mrs. Davis 2005-01-17 6:32:53 PM|| 2005-01-17 6:32:53 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 As AC said in #2
False warnings are as bad as no warning
This from ABC .au news today

Chileans spooked by false tsunami
Up to 12,000 Chileans fled their homes after a false alarm that a tsunami was on its way.

The rumour spread quickly through the southern city of Concepcion when three young men ran along a beach shouting that a massive wave was coming.

Chilean television broadcast images of people running to the hills.

The panic caused several traffic accidents.

A number of people were taken to hospital suffering shock.

- AFP

Posted by Classer 2005-01-17 7:08:47 PM|| 2005-01-17 7:08:47 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 Wait till you get hit by an illegal with a license.

Yeah, it seems the mojado lobby will sooner or later make another license try.

Posted by Bomb-a-rama 2005-01-17 10:00:24 PM|| 2005-01-17 10:00:24 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 Horse is gone, time to close the barn door.
Not having had a tsunami recently makes it all the more important to have a warning system. Now that it's happened, that section of fault almost certainly won't generate another 'big one' for at least another century.
They're not quite random events... they're accumulations.

Posted by Dishman 2005-01-17 10:43:09 PM|| 2005-01-17 10:43:09 PM|| Front Page Top