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2004-01-23 Iraq
Long but fairly good read on Sistani and Iraqi elections
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Posted by Dan Darling 2004-01-23 12:28:05 AM|| || Front Page|| [11133 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 Maybe GW should send James Baker to Baghdad to 'splain to Sistani that the US didn't get Saddam's yoke off his neck and these debt relief agreements so he can throw his weight around.

It's a power grab that is not in the best interest of all the Iraqi people.
Posted by Gasse Katze 2004-1-23 12:45:10 AM||   2004-1-23 12:45:10 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 This sounds like the standard Arab Dire Threats (TM) with the normal allocation of seething.

The unavoidable fact is that direct elections will result in a shiite dictatorship irrespective of whether its a theocracy or not. IMVHO a federal constitution has to be in place before direct elections, otherwise there will be civil war. There may wll be a civil war with one, but its the best chance I can see.

I'm kind of alarmed the Iraqi administration is giving in to these threats. Maybe they are relying on the fact that the UN can't do anything quickly and can say well we tried.

BTW, no one seems to be anticipating what consequences a shia run state will bring.
Posted by Phil B  2004-1-23 12:57:35 AM||   2004-1-23 12:57:35 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Assuming this guy is really speaking for sistani... someone needs to make him aware that we don't respond well to threats.
Posted by Damn_Proud_American  2004-1-23 1:33:54 AM|| [http://brighterfuture.blogspot.com]  2004-1-23 1:33:54 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 didn't this guy "fight for his rights" from iran--he should shut his islamohole or we'll fill it with pork
Posted by SON OF TOLUI 2004-1-23 1:54:34 AM||   2004-1-23 1:54:34 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 "Saddam's yoke off his neck and these debt relief agreements so he can throw his weight around."

huh? we threw Saddam out so that Iraq could have democratic (small d) politics. That means popular guys, including, in a society like Iraq, Sistani, are going to throw their weight around. The admin, to their credit, understand this and are negotiating, and using the UN.

Why would direct elections mean a Shia dictatorship - the Shia are only 60% of the population, and are not united. a coalition would still be necessary. And any caucus system the US would propose will still result in a Shia majority.
Posted by liberalhawk 2004-1-23 8:48:11 AM||   2004-1-23 8:48:11 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 On the other hand, maybe Sistani is still frightened of the Sunni or irritated at the coalition efforts at affirmative action for Sunni thugs who want to join the new Iraqi armed forces.
Posted by mhw 2004-1-23 9:11:26 AM||   2004-1-23 9:11:26 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 I expect to see the Kurds, Sunni, and Shia in civil war, but not until we're out of there. Perhaps our smashing Iran's thugocracy and doing some housekeeping in Syria between 2004 and 2008 will significantly delay the inevitable.
Posted by Tom 2004-1-23 9:20:56 AM||   2004-1-23 9:20:56 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 This is another "scholar" who substitutes "intense, lifetime study of Islam" for "Logic 101".
Posted by ScottAK  2004-1-23 9:57:14 AM||   2004-1-23 9:57:14 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 Poor Sistani - he's about to realize all politics are local and that's bigger than he can control. He's a big man now, while he can get the press to glorify his anti-American stance, but if we set this up right, he'll soon have about as much political power as the Pope or Pat Robertson.
Posted by B 2004-1-23 10:19:59 AM||   2004-1-23 10:19:59 AM|| Front Page Top

#10 Explain nicely that we'll allow direct elections for places IN the new government, but that for the "constitutional caucus" (as it were), we want a more even-handed approach. Everybody has a voice. And if you don't agree, we'll shoot you.
Posted by mojo  2004-1-23 10:42:57 AM||   2004-1-23 10:42:57 AM|| Front Page Top

#11 Jeb Babbin at National Review Online also has a four pager on the situation including a description of the local political system -All Politics is Local(Even in Baghdad.)


Posted by Super Hose  2004-1-23 11:04:20 AM||   2004-1-23 11:04:20 AM|| Front Page Top

#12 "We will fight for the freedom and the direct elections … the will of the people is more powerful than the Americans."

And the will of the people WAS NOT more powerful than the Baathists?

Let's see.... Baathists trounce population.... Americans trounce Baathists.... Q.E.D - Looks like elections will happen on our timeline.
Posted by Sean  2004-1-23 11:28:22 AM|| [www.haarsager.com]  2004-1-23 11:28:22 AM|| Front Page Top

#13 #5 With due respect to your opinion LH, my concern is that 100% of the Iraqi people are due basic human rights under the law. I don't see that happening with Sistani leading the production of the new Iraqi constitution. Already he has introduced, via the interim governing council, Sharia law to permanently replace Iraq's family law. A giant step backward.

IMHO, if someone likes democracy as practiced in Iran, they're going to love Sistani's democracy.
Posted by Gasse Katze 2004-1-23 1:37:46 PM||   2004-1-23 1:37:46 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 sistani has said he doesnt like the iranian system - he sees that its brought the clergy into disrepute.

muslim family law - Israel has religious family law, and for Israeli Muslims thats Sharia. May not be fun for an Israeli muslim woman seeking a divorce or inheritance (though they use a "moderate" strain of Sharia) but it doesnt stop the county from being a vibrant democracy.

We MUST get a democracy going in Iraq. It would be nice if they had equal rights for both sexes, but as long as they are at all close its ok.
Posted by liberalhawk 2004-1-23 4:14:42 PM||   2004-1-23 4:14:42 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 Sorry LH but you are being naive to think that Iraqis won't vote along ethnic lines. The Shias are an absolute majority and will vote as a block. The only hope I see for Iraq is a strong federal constitution similar to Switzerlands. Once there are direct elections it will be very hard to impose a constitution, and the Shias quite naturally will want a unitary state with them in charge. The Sunnis and Kurds will resist this. If the security forces don't split along ethnic lines then maybe it can work, but I personally doubt it.
Posted by Phil B  2004-1-23 6:35:00 PM||   2004-1-23 6:35:00 PM|| Front Page Top

08:48 raptor
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23:27 SON OF TOLUI
23:25 Old Patriot
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23:13 Fred
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22:52 omvi
22:26 Dan Darling
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