"Schumer warned Trump: "Intel officials 'have six ways from Sunday at getting back at you" Schumer seems to be correct in his assessment according to this article.
The article begins to get at the nexus of the conspiracy to take down duly-elected POTUS Trump. However, there seems to be more to it than just the intelligence community. The more is: 1. foreign players involved, 2. the main-stream media aiding and abetting the conspiracy, 3. Dems and DNC, 4. Department of State, 5. Justice Department and FBI, Intelligence community. The swamp is large.
[RealClearInvestigations] In the waning days of the Obama administration, the U.S. intelligence community produced a report saying Russian President Vladimir Putin had tried to swing the 2016 election to Donald Trump.
#1
The Barr-Durham probe is set to determine, among other things, whether Brennan’s actions and faulty information amounted to incompetence or something considerably worse.
I'm betting on both incompetence and something worse.
#5
Alexandra Chalupa has some knowledge that would be relevant to these hearings. Wonder why she wasn't on the witness list in Schiff's Intelligence Committee $hitshow, kangaroo court hearing?
Oh, for a minute I forgot, this hearing is about Trump's impeachment and not about corruption in former Ukraine governments and former U.S. governments.
#9
"We're lucky that Brennan is so clownishly incompetent."
I don't see how one can be a communist without being a bit clownishly incompetent. the real question is what were the rationals to put him in a position in Intelligence after such proven bad judgement.
[The Federalist] The Democratic presidential primary’s freshest face, former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick fired leaders of the Massachusetts Sex Offender Registry in 2014 for trying to register Patrick’s brother in-law for a 1993 California rape conviction.
Earlier this year, Bernard Sigh, Patrick’s ex-brother in-law was sentenced to eight years in prison for raping his ex-wife in a 2017 attack, three years after the head of the Massachusetts Sex Offender Registry Board rose the issue of registering Sigh as a sex offender to Patrick for a prior spousal rape conviction in California. In response, Patrick sacked the official in an effort to avoid having a family member register as a sex offender, calling it a "family matter," and therefore "marital" rape, according to Stanford Professor Michele Dauber.
Patrick became the latest candidate to officially enter the 2020 Democratic presidential contest this week with less than three months away from the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses after nine major candidates have already dropped out.
The former Massachusetts governor has less than one month to meet the Democratic National Committee’s qualifying thresholds to earn a spot on the December debate stage, where only six of the field’s 19 candidates including former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg have qualified so far.
Patrick’s late entrance in the race showcases Democrats’ concerns that no candidates currently in the race can pick up the necessary momentum needed to oust President Donald Trump next fall. The field’s frontrunner and former Vice President Joe Biden is plagued by scandals involving the Biden family’s shady dealings with Ukraine being brought to light by the Democrats’ partisan impeachment inquiry, while Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont are running on far-left platforms proving difficult to sell to American voters.
Patrick, 63, served as governor of Massachusetts from 2007 to 2013 and has since worked in the private sector at Bain Capital and in media as a CBS contributor. BAIN! That eeeevil firm that Romney worked at???
#4
...it's Pavlovian. Reward, punishment. Doing the right thing gets you nothing but often punishment. Doing what is wrong often gets you a rewarding gig on major Party organs.
Potential solution to vexing car problem.
[Fox News] The House Ethics Committee on Thursday released a trove of striking internal campaign communications sent in 2018 by Michigan Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib, in which Tlaib urgently requested money from her congressional campaign to defray personal expenses -- and, a government watchdog said, possibly violated federal law in the process. "Impeach the Motherf*cker!" doesn't sound so tough now, does it, Paleotrash?
The document dump was related to the committee's ongoing ethics probe into Tlaib, which the panel said on Thursday would be "expanded" based on a referral from the Office of Congressional Ethics (OCE). Additionally, the Ethics Committee acknowledged for the first time on Thursday an investigation into Florida Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings concerning a "personal relationship with an individual employed in his congressional office."
Texts and emails released by the Ethics Committee show Tlaib frantically contacting members of her staff for financial help.
In one April 2018 email offered as an exhibit by OCE, Tlaib wrote that she was "struggling financially right now" and was "sinking." She continued: "So I was thinking the campaign could loan me money, but Ryan said that the committee could actually pay me. I was thinking a one time payment of $5k."
In another email, on April 4, 2018, Tlaib wrote: "I am just not going to make it through the campaign without a stipend."
"With the loss of a second income to lean back on," she wrote. "I am requesting $2,000 per two weeks but not exceeding $12,000. The cost of living stipend is going towards much needed expenses due to campaigning that includes car maintenance, child care and other necessities. Please let me know if I can proceed."
In August of that year, Tlaib texted her future chief of staff Ryan Anderson at 6:38 a.m.: "Sorry for the early text but do you think the campaign can still pay me a stipend until the general. Trying to get out of debt."
"I think we definitely afford to do so. But we need to really clearly define your time and space," Anderson responded, noting that the arrangement could arouse "concern" among the media.
The OCE also attached scans of checks made out to Tlaib from her campaign, totaling thousands of dollars.
Talib's lawyers said in August there was no evidence that she violated the law on purpose or otherwise, and insisted there were no bad intentions. They noted that Federal Election Commission (FEC) regulations permit campaigns to "pay limited salary to candidates who curtail outside employment to focus on their campaigns" in certain limited conditions that, the lawyers said, were met in this instance.
The attorneys went on to say it was "most irregular" for OCE to call for a probe into a member of Congress based on pre-election activities, and argued that there was no "conscious disregard of any law or regulation." Tlaib was paid by her campaign after Election Day, the attorneys conceded, but they asserted that the money was for services performed before Election Day.
Posted by: Frank G ||
11/15/2019 00:00 ||
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#1
Three conclusions:
1) It's kind of refreshing, actually, that this specimen is still unwise to the ways of Congressional Grifting. Compare her authentic penury to the corrupt imbeciles like Mad Maxine, Cummings and his widow, et al.
2) counterbalancing #1, in her case her penury isn't noble but the consequence of her obvious inability to do any serious or productive labor, which leads us to ...
3) ... her quite obvious emotional and intellectual disabilities. The reason that she can't make money is that she's a deranged moron with anger management and Daddy issues.
#2
In other words, imagine how much more damage this specimen could do if she were actually intelligent. We should count ourselves lucky that she's so stupid.
#4
Maybe it's the approaching holiday, ormaybe I'm just feeling charitable, but with each day that passes it appears more and more likely that our blessed Republic is indeed, as Bismarck said, favored by God - along with children and idiots.
Consider:
Russia had Lenin and Stalin. We have Schifferbrains and Fauxcahontas.
The Romans had Brutus and Octavian. We have Loverboy Peter Strzok and Pr0n Lawyer/Shakedown Clown Michael Avenatti.
The French had Robespierre and St-Just. We have Pajama Boy Eric Ciaramella and Occasional Cortex.
The Germans had, well, we all know. We have suited morons at CNN, NYT, WaPo.
Even monsters like Epstein have been waxed for us. Hillary is rendered null by her own creeping putrefaction.
We have much to be thankful for this November. Once again, as the great man said: God looks kindly on children, imbeciles and Americans.
[NYPOST] A Texas state politician fessed up to dropping an envelope of cocaine at an Austin airport in an episode that authorities said was caught on camera.
"I do not have anyone to blame but myself," Democratic state Rep. Poncho Nevárez told the Texas Tribune on Thursday.
Nevárez, who announced last month he wouldn’t seek reelection, dropped an envelope with his official seal Sept. 6 at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport as he climbed into a vehicle, according to an affidavit filed by state police.
It was found by airport workers, who discovered it contained baggies of white powder determined to be cocaine, authorities said.
Security cameras captured the envelope fall from Nevárez’s person as he climbed into a vehicle, police said.
State authorities filed an affidavit Oct. 29 to obtain a DNA sample from Nevarez in attempt to match saliva found on the envelope.
Nevárez, who is from Eagle Pass, hasn’t been charged in the incident, but the affidavit notes that he’s suspected of felony drug possession.
The prominent state politician said "grief and addiction" were consuming him and he will seek drug treatment.
"I accept this because it is true and it will help me get better," Nevarez told the newspaper.
Posted by: Fred ||
11/15/2019 00:00 ||
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#1
"I do not have anyone to blame but myself,"
"My fingers were all tingly."
[BREITBART] An indictment charging Caliphornia, an impregnable bastion of the Democratic Party,creepy porn lawyer Michael Avenatti with conspiring to extort Nike has been rewritten to drop two conspiracy counts.
In a tweet, Avenatti said he was "extremely pleased" and expects eventually to be "fully exonerated."
The refreshed indictment returned Wednesday in Manhattan federal court adds an honest services wire fraud charge.
Avenatti has pleaded not guilty "Wudn't me." to charges he committed extortion by threatening to publicly reveal dirty dealings by Nike in college athletics if he wasn’t paid up to $25 million.
Avenatti also faces fraud charges in Los Angeles federal court and in a separate New York case after he was charged with cheating porn star Stormy Daniels of book deal income. Avenatti once represented Daniels over a nondisclosure deal regarding an alleged affair with President Donald Trump ...Perhaps no man has ever had as much fun being president of the US... .
Leaked documents from the Ukrainian General Prosecutor’s office indicate complex money transfers from foreign sources into the control of a “slush fund” owned and operated by Devon Archer, John Kerry Senior, John Kerry Junior, Heinz Jr, and Hunter Biden.
On Tuesday, September 16, 2008, when Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke held another of their terrifying closed-door meetings with congressional leaders (two days before the “ashen-faced” meeting), the stock market had dipped only a few percentage points, and most people assumed that the financial crisis was a disruption that would have just a limited effect on the broader economy.
But what Paulson and Bernanke told lawmakers on September 16 made it clear that the public’s perception was wrong. Paulson, in his memoir, explains that during the meeting he outlined that the federal government was going to bail out the insurance giant AIG and that the markets were in deep trouble. “There was an almost surreal quality to the meeting,” he recounts. “The stunned lawmakers looked at us as if not quite believing what they were hearing.”
The next day, Congressman Jim Moran, Democrat of Virginia, a member of the Appropriations Committee, dumped his shares in ninety different companies....
September 17, 2008, was by far Moran’s most active trading day of the year. He dumped shares in Goldman Sachs, General Dynamics, Franklin Resources, Flowserve Corporation, Ecolabs, Edison International, Electronic Arts, DirecTV, Conoco, Procter & Gamble, AT&T, Apple, CVS, Cisco, Chubb, and a dozen more
companies. Moran’s timing was impeccable. He didn’t profit very much from these trades, but he avoided the larger losses that the general public would face in a matter of weeks. Moran and his wife actually eked out a net capital gain on these trades.
Moran was just one of many.At least ten U.S. senators, including John Kerry, Sheldon Whitehouse, and Dick Durbin, traded stock or mutual funds related to the financial industry the following day.
...Senator Durbin did not just sell stocks based on his inside knowledge. Like [GOP Rep. Spencer] Bachus, he was looking for opportunities to invest. Though he sold many of his holdings, he also bought tens of thousands of dollars’ worth of Berkshire Hathaway...Durbin bought shares on September 19 and 22 — more than $60,000 worth.
His timing was nearly perfect. The next day, September 23, it was announced that Berkshire Hathaway was buying part of Goldman Sachs, which would yield a 10% guaranteed dividend for Berkshire investors like Durbin. The deal had been discussed behind closed doors for days before Buffett announced it publicly. Durbin’s spokesman insists that the senator “didn’t use any information from that closed-door gathering to counsel his trades the following day.” Yet it is almost certain that Durbin, as chairman of a crucial subcommittee, knew about the Goldman Sachs deal.
When the House Financial Services Committee was crafting legislation for the bailout of banks in the fall of 2008, eight members of the committee were actively and aggressively trading bank stocks. So too were members of the Senate Finance Committee.
As the Treasury Department was conferring over which banks would get the bailout money, Senator John Kerry started buying Citigroup stock. The markets might have been down and in turmoil, but Kerry was buying the troubled company. Lots of it. He purchased up to $550,000 in Citigroup stock in early and mid-October. He also bought up to $350,000 in Bank of America shares.
Days later, on October 28, it was announced that Citigroup was getting $25 billion from the TARP. Capital Purchase Program and another $25 billion from the Targeted Investment Program.
On November 4, it was announced that Citi would be provided additional loan guarantees that could total $277 billion, from the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.
BREAKING, Leaked Documents Show Tens Of Millions From Ukraine Paid To Kerry, Biden Jr Fund, Report
Documents have been discovered that show cash transfers from a Ukrainian gas company to a slush fund operated by several major Democrats.
The slush fund is reportedly run by former Secretary of State John Kerry, John Kerry Jr., another Kerry family member and Hunter Biden, Michael Coudrey reported.
“Leaked documents from the Ukrainian General Prosecutor’s office indicate complex money transfers from foreign sources into the control of a ‘slush fund’ owned and operated by Devon Archer, John Kerry Senior, John Kerry Junior, Heinz Jr, and Hunter Biden,” he said.
“According to the Department of Financial Monitoring (Counter-intelligence) of Latvia, the following sums of money were obtained from Busima Holding Limited (Cyprus) which is open at AS PrivatBank in Latvia.
“This describes the money transfer of $14,655,982 and $366,015 EUR from “Wirelogic Technology AS”, and $1,964,375 from “Digitex Organization LLP”.
#7
....“Leaked documents from the Ukrainian General Prosecutor’s office indicate complex money transfers from foreign sources into the control of a ‘slush fund’ owned and operated by Devon Archer, John Kerry Senior, John Kerry Junior, Heinz Jr, and Hunter Biden,” he said.
[WASHINGTONTIMES] The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) charged a company cofounded by Paul Pelosi Jr. with fraud on Wednesday after learning that two convicted criminals were running the business.
Paul Pelosi Jr., the son of House Minority Leader Nancy San Fran Nan Pelosi Congresswoman-for-Life from the San Francisco Bay Area, born into a family of professional politicians. On-again-off-again Speaker of the House. It's not her fault when they lose, but it's her accomplishment when they win. Noted for her heavily botoxed grimace and occasional senior... uhhh... moments... (D., Calif.), was the president and chief operating officer of Natural Blue Resources Inc., an investment company he cofounded that focuses on "environmentally-friendly" ventures.
The SEC charged four individuals with fraud, including former New Mexico Gov. Toney Anaya, and suspended trading in the company’s stock. Pelosi owned over 10 million shares in the company in 2009. ... which you can bet she's long since dumped. But it wouldn't be insider trading, really. Just ask her. You were going to ask, weren't you?
The SEC said Wednesday the company was "secretly controlled" by James E. Cohen and Joseph Corazzi, both of whom had previous fraud convictions. Corazzi violated federal securities laws and was barred from acting as an officer or director of a public company. Cohen was previously incarcerated for financial fraud.
[BREITBART] Ukrainian foreign minister Vadym Prystaiko said Thursday that U.S. Ambassador to the E.U. Gordon Sondland had "never" linked U.S. aid to Ukrainian investigations of the 2016 elections or the Biden’s role in stopping a probe of Burisma. But what does he know?
Prystaiko spoke the day after the first public hearings in the House Intelligence Committee as part of the "impeachment inquiry," where two witnesses said they came to believe there had been such a link ‐ though only some time after Politico reported on August 28 that aid had been held up by the Trump administration.
One of the witnesses, Chargé d’affaires Bill Taylor, introduced new evidence that a staffer told him recently that he overheard Sondland speaking to President Donald Trump ...Oh, noze! Not him!... the day after his July 25 phone call with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, discussing "investigations." The staffer also told Taylor that Sondland said that Trump was more interested in investigations than anything else.
As Breitbart News’ Kristina Wong noted, that new evidence ‐ which is fourth-hand hearsay, plus opinion ‐ added little new information, but was cited by Democrats and journalists as evidence that aid might have been linked to investigations Trump had asked the new Ukrainian government to pursue.
On Thursday, Prystaiko said that there had been no link in discussions at the time with Sondland, as Rooters reported.
Posted by: Fred ||
11/15/2019 00:00 ||
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#1
Here is one who won't be invited to testify in your congress.
#2
that new evidence ‐ which is fourth-hand hearsay, plus opinion ‐ added little new information, but was cited by Democrats and journalists as evidence
cf. Through the Looking Glass* "Sentence first-- verdict afterward"
#3
I love it! The Beeb this morning played a clip of the poor ambassadoress saying how she felt threatened and intimidated, which prompted some Demo-doofus to say they took witness intimidation (Non Sequitur Alert!) *very* seriously.
HT AOSHQ
[AMGreatness] Robert Mueller's infamous "pit bull" has joined the NBC news team, making his debut as a "legal analyst" on Wednesday for the first public impeachment hearing.
NBC described the Mueller team leader as a "legendary prosecutor"‐which he is actually, but not in a good way.
Andrew Weissmann is a former Justice Department official who is known for engaging in ruthless and unethical behavior in several high-profile cases. Gen. Michael Flynn's attorney Sidney Powell, in fact, made him the lead villain in her book "Licensed to Lie" and has labeled him "the poster boy for prosecutorial misconduct."
Weissmann will be offering advice to House Democrats for their impeachment inquisition against President Trump in his new position at NBC/MSNBC, further confirming the hyper-partisan nature of the Mueller probe.
On MSNBC Wednesday, he stressed that Democrat lawmakers need to present a case to the American people, arguing that Trump needs to be impeached right away, rather than waiting for the election to decide the president's fate.
"The key thing that the Democrats have to think about is, where are you going to be at the end? What is it that you're going to be asking people to really care about? And you need to find out ‐ and make the case for ‐ why should there be impeachment where people vote to convict as opposed to acquit now, and not sort of let it go to the election?" Weissmann said.
Once reason why Weissmann may like to see Trump removed from office ASAP is because he was allegedly involved in the DOJ's alleged 2016 election malfeasance.
[WASHINGTONEXAMINER] Democratic Rep. Alexandria Boom Boom Ocasio-Cortez Dem represntative from da Bronx in Noo Yawk and leader of the Mean Girl Caucus in Congress. One of the Great Minds of the 21st Century, she is known as much for her innaleck as for her dance moves. She is all in favor of socialism, even though she's fuzzy on the details... admitted that the Democrats' efforts to investigate President Trump are, in part, meant to prevent him from winning reelection in November 2020. No! Really?
The freshman New York congresswoman made the admission in an interview on CNN Wednesday evening, hours after the House had its first public hearing in the impeachment investigation into Trump's foreign policy decisions regarding Ukraine.
"I think many of those considerations will be taken up by the Judiciary Committee when all of this evidence is brought forth," Ocasio-Cortez stated. "We’ll see. I personally do believe that the president has engaged in flagrant violations of the emoluments clause. I'm concerned that we would allow this corruption to continue. But at the end of the day, we have to be able to come together as a caucus, and if it is this Ukrainian allegation that is what brings the caucus together, then I think we have to run with however we unify the House."
Ocasio-Cortez has called for the president's impeachment since before her inauguration.
"While I believe personally that we should be pursuing and investigating quite flagrant abuses of the emoluments clause, even reporting as recently as the suspicious stops at Trump properties even in congressional delegations or rather in foreign trips, I think all of this is game for investigation," she added.
"We also need to move quite quickly because we’re talking about the potential compromise of the 2020 elections. This is not just about something that has occurred, this is about preventing a potentially disastrous outcome from occurring next year," she concluded.
#11
Nothing. Conviction and removal then reelection would be a possible (and hilarious) issue, but not gonna happen. She thinks House vote = removal. She's an idiot
Posted by: Frank G ||
11/15/2019 13:58 Comments ||
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#12
Go ahead and impeach him, Democrats. The trial phase is conducted in the Senate. Trump will be allowed to call witnesses,without interference from Schiff at al.
My suggestions for witnesses: the Bidens, Ciamarella, Schiff, Brennan, Comey, Strzok, Page, McCabe,and anyone else involved in the coup.
Posted by: Rambler in Virginia ||
11/15/2019 14:27 Comments ||
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#13
#7 Cute? I'm not seeing it.
Agreed. Scary. Hard to read the bug eyes and the big choppers...
You wouldn't know whether she was enjoying herself, on the point of a seizure or about to strangle you. Not erotic for me anyway
Posted by: chris ||
11/15/2019 16:23 Comments ||
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#16
An insult to rats Gru. She's as good looking on the outside as hollywood can cover up the ugliness of the inside. Cuteness only goes so far before people realize what's on the inside.
On the other hand there's Mad Maxine Waters. Shes doesn't even live in her district, does nothing for it and still gets elected. Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large numbers.
[BREITBART] An objective look at the latest polling proves the Impeachment Hoax is backfiring against Quid Pro Joe Biden.
Obviously, it was not supposed to be this way. Democrats and their establishment media allies were certain they had crafted a silver bullet that would accomplish two things at once: 1) doom President Trump’s re-election chances, and 2) shield Old Joe from the fact he and his son are guilty of looting China and Ukraine.
What a fail.
As of this writing, Trump sits at a relatively healthy job approval rating of 44.1 percent per the RealClearPolitics poll of polls. That’s only a single point lower than when the media and Democrats launched their Impeachment Hoax.
What’s more, in less than three weeks, Trump’s job approval has climbed almost four points.
Oh, and Slow Joe…?
The Impeachment Hoax has backfired spectacularly on Slow Joe.
As the media and Democrats attempt to find an impeachable offense, as they hold secret hearings, as they move the goalposts from a quid pro quo that can’t be proved (and would not be impeachable if it were) to the crime of — LOL — bribery, as Democrats and the media founder around stepping on rakes, the Impeachment Hoax Spotlight is instead exposing the Biden Family Crime Syndicate.
[CNSNEWS] Rep. Ilhan Omar ...Somali-American Dem representative from Minnesota. She is apparently married to her brother and may be her own grandmaw on her mother's side... (D.-Minn.) sent out a tweet after Wednesday’s hearings in the House impeachment inquiry expressing her confidence that the House was going to impeach President Donald Trump ...The tack in the backside of the Democratic Party... "Every report, every testimony, comes down to this: Donald Trump thinks he’s above the law.
"It’s up to Congress to show him that he’s not: We’re going to impeach this corrupt president."
[BREITBART] Rep. Dan Bishop (R-NC) became the first member of Congress to publicly name the alleged "whistleblower," whose second-hand complaint sparked the Democrats’ impeachment inquiry, on Twitter Monday evening.
Bishop on Monday responded to a tweet from an individual who suggested that the GOP refrain from using the term "whistleblower," instead referring to him as "the leaker" or "the operative" or "the deep state spy in the White House."
The North Carolina congressman said he agreed "100%," noting that he refuses "to cower before the authoritarian intimidation campaign."
"He’s not Voldemort. And he’s not a bona fide whistleblower. Even if he were, he wouldn’t be entitled to secrecy. Eric Ciamarella is a deep state conspirator," Bishop wrote. "He needs to testify now"
[REUTERS] The wife of the late U.S. Representative Elijah Cummings ...Late Representative-for-life from Maryland, representing half of Baltimore City, which made his district ultra-safe, and most of Howard County, which is way out-populated by the city. His shiny pate was the reason we pronounced the city name Baldymore. Cummings' politix were so liberal they're tedious, nor was he any more honest than the next seedy professional pol... , who played a key role in House Democrats’ impeachment inquiry until his death last month, formally launched a bid on Tuesday for his congressional seat in Baltimore. Wowsers! Not a mention in the entire article of her troubles with fraud and corruption charges!
Maya Rockeymoore Cummings, 48, announced her candidacy to serve out the remainder of her husband’s term in Maryland’s 7th Congressional District a day after resigning her post as chair of the state’s Democratic Party.
She ran for governor in 2017 but dropped out of the race after her husband was hospitalized in January 2018.
Rockeymoore Cummings said on MSNBC on Monday that she and her spouse, who were married in 2008, had discussed the possibility of her succeeding him months ago as his health declined, and he encouraged her to run should he die. "Ya gotta carry on as my successor, Maya, otherwise you'll have to get a real job"
She revealed in a separate Baltimore Sun interview that she was going through with a preventive double mastectomy planned for Friday, as scheduled and discussed with her husband before his death.
My family works for me, not for Ukraine or China or whomever
My administration hasn't used the IRS to destroy opposing political movements. Opposing political movements are still trying to use the IRS to destroy me.
Are you better off today than you were four years ago?
Posted by: Fred ||
11/15/2019 00:00 ||
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#1
It will come down to Number 3.
Posted by: European Conservative ||
11/15/2019 1:03 Comments ||
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#2
#3 is way easier to affirm now than when Reagan asked the same question going into 1984.
#3
The best predictive model is Political Scientist Allan Lichtman's "13 Keys," a diagnostic model that poses 13 true-false propositions, of which any 6, if True for the party that occupies the presidency, will predict that that party retain its hold. This is the most successful predictive model that I'm aware of, and Lichtman was the only forecaster or political scientist to predict Trump's victory in 2016.
He predicts Trump will win in 2020 as well.
Here's how: If the incumbent is running, then any SIX of these "keys," if True, will predict re-election. Fully EIGHT of these, below, are definitely True. This is why Prof. Lichtman, a liberal Democrat, is comfortable predicting, even at this early stage, that Trump will win in 2020-- the TRUE keys are in boldface:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. .
#5
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
We believe that, On the other side they’re convinced that even when President Trump breathes in or breathes out he is committing a scandal of some sort.
#6
Praise goes to the Prof. Funny how a diagnostic model that uses lots of prior knowledge and common sense outperforms all the statisticians' polling-based models.
Maybe the polls are BS. Maybe "social science" isn't, ah, scientific.
#8
#5 tw - note that I didn't even score this one (#9, Scandal) for Trump. I actually conceded it to the Dems, given that half the country's been brainwashed by their idiocy on this point, and I recognize that perception = reality for the purpose of rigorous, honest analysis.
Even conceding this point, Trump STILL has 8 total "keys" ie he could give up even two of them and still be predicted to win per Prof. Lichtman's model.
#12
What about #7? Doesn't all the regulation reversal count? Not to mention the SC justices, Trump has changed a lot of national policy in ways that his supporters wanted.
#14
All valid objections but eppur si muovo: hisxtrack revord's better than anyone's. He got 2016 right when all the polling-based models were predicting Hillary would trounce her opponent.
I'm with Lichtman. Assuming Trump and his team have a solid ground game in nonurban Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida, Trump has to be favored.
The polls are BS. They understate the man's support among likely voters by at least 7 points.
#16
By the way, when the New York Times fact-checked Trump’s speech, the only things it found wrong were his boast that the U.S. is winning World Trade Organization cases “for the first time,” and Trump’s odd boast that Ivanka created 14 million jobs.
I'd like to find the Slimes article that mostly fact-checked Trump's claims, but gave up after two searches.
Posted by: Bobby ||
11/15/2019 11:15 Comments ||
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#17
By the way, the White House version of the speech -
[THEFEDERALIST] Thank you for asking. If you can't believe Adam Schiff, who can you believe? It's Eric Ciaramella, Congresscritter. He's an intelligence officer specializing in Russia and Ukraine. He was a staffer on the National Security Council, where he was responsible for policy regarding Ukraine. He was H.R. McMaster's personal aide and during the Obama administration had worked with Susan Rice. Ciaramella has a reputation as a big time leaker. Now you know as much as 98 percent of the rest of the country.
[FOXNEWS] Ooh! Ooh! Call on me! Call on me! I've never met him either, and I have an opinion! "Yes, you in the front, with your hand up...Mr.... aahhh ....Pruitt?"
Posted by: Fred ||
11/15/2019 00:00 ||
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#1
I've never met teh CNN analyst, but I can confirm the rumors that he smokes meth, frequents tranny hookers and is a dedicated sheep buggerer. Man this game is fun.
#2
I'm really starting to wonder if there is something bigger going on. The left has lost their grip regarding feelings vs facts. These witnesses all 'felt' trump was up to bad things and so they had to come forward as if the feelings were as good as facts.
#5
I think we should all make WhistleBlower complants about the sh*t we make up about Schiff. CNN 'analysts', and the gang.
After all 'rumor' is the same as direct knowledge and our identity and jobs will be protected right?
#2
When does Fox news catch up with the stories I read about Patrick's sordid attempts as governor to keep his brother in law from having to register as a sex offender?
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
[The Federalist] The Democratic presidential primary’s freshest face, former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick fired leaders of the Massachusetts Sex Offender Registry in 2014 for trying to register Patrick’s brother in-law for a 1993 California rape conviction.
...Perhaps no man has ever had as much fun being president of the US...
....“Leaked documents from the Ukrainian General Prosecutor’s office indicate complex money transfers from foreign sources into the control of a ‘slush fund’ owned and operated by Devon Archer, John Kerry Senior, John Kerry Junior, Heinz Jr, and Hunter Biden,” he said. 
Congresswoman-for-Life from the San Francisco Bay Area, born into a family of professional politicians. On-again-off-again Speaker of the House. It's not her fault when they lose, but it's her accomplishment when they win. Noted for her heavily botoxed grimace and occasional senior... uhhh... moments...
[Daily Mail, Where America Gets Its News] 
Dem represntative from da Bronx in Noo Yawk and leader of the Mean Girl Caucus in Congress. One of the Great Minds of the 21st Century, she is known as much for her innaleck as for her dance moves. She is all in favor of socialism, even though she's fuzzy on the details...
[BREITBART] An objective look at the latest polling proves the Impeachment Hoax is backfiring against Quid Pro Joe Biden.
...The tack in the backside of the Democratic Party...
...Late Representative-for-life from Maryland, representing half of Baltimore City, which made his district ultra-safe, and most of Howard County, which is way out-populated by the city. His shiny pate was the reason we pronounced the city name 
[FOXNEWS] 
