WHAT IS FASCINATING about the Bernard Lewis interview that gave rise to this round of European soul-searching is that it was not meant to be specifically about Europe. Lewis was asked about the Iraq war, the Palestine question, hopes for liberal democracy in Iran, and the prospects for defeating al Qaeda. (On this last subject, Lewis provided an unsettling answer: "It's a long process and the outcome is by no means certain," he said. "It works similarly to communism, which appealed to unhappy people in the West because it seemed to give them unambiguous answers. Radical Islam has the same force of attraction.") Lewis described the European Union's break with the United States in terms of a "community of envy.... Understandably, Europeans harbor some reservations about an America that has outstripped them. That's why Europeans can well understand the Muslims, who have similar feelings."
#3
France is well on their way to becoming the first E.U. Islamic republic. Martel is rolling in his grave.
Posted by: Mark Espinola ||
09/30/2004 15:25 Comments ||
Top||
#4
No, they haven't come to grips with the prospect at all. OTOH they're scared sh*tless of Turkey's entry into the EU and of the AQ cells in their midst. OTOH they're imprisoned by their PC rhetoric and by their own elites' opportunistic approach to a new and solidly anti-US domestic voting bloc.
What most EUros fail to grasp is the actuarial math: you can't fund welfare and pension systems when your birthrate's 1.3 or so and when medical advances keep increasing longevity.
Right now most EU nations have fewer young workers paying in than retirees receiving benefits. This is a catastrophe in the making. The only way to turn it around is either to reverse post-modern, post-Christian Euros' reluctance to bear and raise children (not bloody likely), or else import many millions of young immigrants, the vast majority of them muslim, from Africa and the middle east. Which is of course what EUrabia will opt for if it wishes to pay pensions, preserve universal health care and allow its rapidly aging populations to retire before the age of 80.
#5
It is a certainty that EU nations whose muslim populations start to approach 20% of the electorate will tilt toward the jihadists in the middle east.
It's therefore foolish for the US to assume that we can rely on NATO allies to remain pro-US regarding policy toward muslim nations on the EU's periphery. Time for us to accept the fact of EUrabia and start laying the foundations for an alliance, or entente if you prefer, with non-muslim, non-islamicized nations that truly will stand with us against the jihadist threat.
Posted by: Howard UK ||
09/30/2004 15:32 Comments ||
Top||
#7
lex---we've discussed the demographics on RB quite extensively, and especially with France. In a few decades there will be 1 worker for 1 pensioner, which is economically non sustainable. Import the Muslim workers and there is no assimilation. Get enough of them and they take over. The old pensioner is given the olde heave ho, and the Muslims don't give a sh*t, and just say, "Insh'Allah." And the old Europe is gawn.
Posted by: Alaska Paul ||
09/30/2004 15:33 Comments ||
Top||
#8
Thanks, AP --- predates my RB life. Actually France will do better than most. They're offering bonuses to each family for each child born, and if I'm not mistaken their non-muslim birthrate is the highest in the EU. The Brits may also be OK, given their (in relative terms) better track record with assimilation.
What our fp elite don't realize is that the demographic reality will have huge fp implications. There's no way that the EU will not seek to distance themselves still further from us in the WOT. The best we can hope for from the EU nations is to retain the UK and Poland's loyalty. The others are lost causes.
#9
The "old pensioners" have paved the way for the Islamists with their socialized medicine, i. e. doctors work for the state, and their legalization of euthanasia.
The one thing Caldwell mentioned that has not yet been discussed in this thread is the consistent U. S. support for Turkish membership. After the betrayal in Iraq War II, we should definitely reverse our position on Turkish membereship.
Another question we will face is our own immigration policy. Right now it is anti European. It will be interesting to watch it respond to the tension between welcoming valuable immigrants facing tyranny and seeing Europe turn Muslim even more quickly.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
09/30/2004 15:47 Comments ||
Top||
#10
A modest proposal: we swap Hollywood "anti-war" celebs for Europe's best and brightest scientists, engineers, technology entrepreneurs.
Instant US citizenship for any EUer with a PhD in one of the hard sciences.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
09/30/2004 15:57 Comments ||
Top||
#12
Trade Oprah for another of these: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/08/23/nsci23.xml
A nobel prize winning chemist is leaving Britain for America because he says raising funds for his work will become increasingly difficult after he reaches retirement age later this year. Sir Harry Kroto, who says he has grown weary of the constant struggle to raise cash, is moving from Sussex University to Florida State University, which has guaranteed money for his research.
#18
The Maghreb (or Moghreb), meaning "west" in Arabic, is the region of the continent of Africa north of the Sahara desert and west of the Nile - specifically, the modern countries of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and to a lesser extent Libya and Mauritania. Its mixed Arab-Berber inhabitants were traditionally called Moors by Europeans.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
09/30/2004 19:31 Comments ||
Top||
#19
Maghreb's all the part of Northern Africa west of the Nile. "Its mixed Arab-Berber inhabitants were traditionally called Moors by Europeans."
#21
I'd say great minds..., but I don't know who'd be more upset.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
09/30/2004 19:39 Comments ||
Top||
#22
How about some substantive comment on the post, Aris? It's stil been less than 200 years since Greece got out from under the yoke. What do you (sing. & pl.) think of these prospects?
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
09/30/2004 19:41 Comments ||
Top||
#23
From what I read in the EU press I have access to it seems the peoples of the EU are of 2 minds. They are anti Turk ( to the point of racism) and by inference muslim yet at the same time are persuing "multicultrialism" and will not give up their socialist agendas they can't afford. (The US has the same problem with it's social agenda btw) In the end they will sucumb to Islam and dissappear like Rome.
Greece's branch of Muslim underpaid workers is not Arab but primarily Albanian in kind.
Greek society treats them like shit. In a recent victory of Albania over Greece in soccer, several hundred Albanians went out to celebrate in order to be confronted to be met by gangs of neonazi "Golden Dawn" members, and police forces, not sure which one was worse. It's been reported that hundreds were injured and in a separate incident one young Albanian lost his life.
Given how Greeks freely celebrated in Paris when they defeated France, and freely celebrated in Lisbon when they defeated Portugal, I feel it kinda shows the difference between Greece and Western Europe.
That, alongside the stance of the audience in the 200m Men's finals in the Olympics, shows me that there's no hope for Greece: But not because of its incoming muslims, but rather because of its native "patriotic" and ofcourse Christian Greeks. I'm not afraid of being part of Western Arabia. I'm afraid of being part of Southwestern Russia.
As for Turkey, I've already said EU is not ready to accept it.
And as for Bernard Lewis comments, I have no interest in commenting on Trelawny's prophecies. If he "takes it for granted", fine, I don't. In a century we'll see who is right.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
09/30/2004 20:08 Comments ||
Top||
#26
I'm not afraid of being part of Western Arabia. I'm afraid of being part of Southwestern Russia.
I don't see any logic behind this remark. Russia is a troubled ex-empire undergoing severe demographic, political, moral, culture, hell, physical decline. AIDS and syphilis are spreading rapidly, and its non-Moscow population live at a level one associates with lagging states in Asia. Its population will soon be smaller than Pakistan's, and will likely shrink by as much as 25% during the next two generations. How on earth could Russia expand and swallow up an EU nation like Greece?
#28
Ah well, I guess anyone who takes things for granted hundred years on is not someone I'd bank my money on. There are simply too many "unknown unknowns" (sorry Donald) to be considered.
The demographic factor: It's true that Muslim immigrants of the first generation have more children than "native Europeans". But the number drops in the second generation and in the third it will pretty much be aligned to the general standard. So Muslims in Europe won't be able to take over by "breeding". The Mediterranean "guest workers" in Germany also had huge families in the 60s, now they are pretty much in line with the average German family. Yes our society will age, but the elderly will play a more important role, be active longer. And remember, many of them have accumulated a lot of money since we have lived peace for 60 years.
Islam will not take over by being attractive to those not born Muslims. Islam is and will remain a non European faith that has no real roots or traditions here. Very few Europeans convert to Islam (the majority being women who marry Muslims). The average European actually forces himself to "tolerate" his Muslim neighbor, co-worker etc. If Islam radicalizes further Europe will become a rather uncomfortable place for Muslims. Yet 90 percent of German Muslims hardly embrace fundamentalism and jihadi ideology.
Right now Western and Northern Europe has Islamic "hotspots" in major cities that it needs to watch over more closely (Malmö in Sweden, the Paris banlieue, parts of Berlin and some English cities are examples for troublesome developments.
Europe will invite more qualified and a more global waves of immigrants, namely from South America, India and Russia). It will possible draw East Asian immigration as well. The cutting edge might still prefer to go to the U.S. but you can't run a society withh eggheads only. More and more Chinese with good (but not excellent) qualifications study in Germany.
Also Lewis idea that "European envy" of American "superiority" will lead to a solidarization with Arabs is nonsense. The average European feels rather well and does not envy the life of the average American.
Will Europe be a global player in 20, 50 years? Yes I absolutely believe so. There is more innovation in Europe than you might think: new energies and technologies are developed here just as fine as in the U.S. The U.S. may have some advantages in several fields and when it comes to cutting edge developments (due to much easier financing and resulting "brain drain"), but places like CERN near Geneve, Toulouse (Aerospatiale), or Garching near Munich are very promising examples. And we are embarking on major social reforms as well.
The United States faces considerable challenges in this century as well. The South will have a Hispanic majority, the U.S. may have to lead more wars, suffer WMD attacks, exhaust itself in a conflict with China etc. We simply don't know.
No, in 2050 the major players will probably be the U.S., Europe (with closer ties to a revigorated Russia and - hopefully - a reformed Middle East, namely a (non mullah) Iran which will dominate the Persian Gulf... and China.
I'm not familiar with your mind-reading skills, which is one reason I wrote that Russia's "suffering severe demographic, political, moral, cultural... decline." Russia can't even subdue Chechnya or Georgia. I seriously doubt anyone in Greece can expect to see that pitiful excuse called the Russian Army anywhere close to your borders at any point in the next fifty years.
#31
I too see plenty of alternatives to EUrabia; they're just not likely alternatives:
a) the EU's postmodern, post-Christian adults could reverse their aversion to bearing and raising children.
b) EU publics could signal a willingness to endure significant cuts in benefits and a significantly higher retirement age.
c) EU elites could adopt a wide range of economic reforms to make their economies much more competitive, thereby significantly boosting economic growth and lessening the actuarial burden that will crush young workers.
The real question is of course the probability you attach to each of the above occurring. For the EU to avoid the EUrabia scenario, a combination of a) b) and c) would have to occur, certainly at least two of the three. I would rate the probability of a) at about 30%, of b) at maybe 5%, and c) at maybe 50%. So in other words the best case is that EUrabia by my reckoning is at least 85% [=1-(.3 x .5)] likely.
#32
TGA: What's in Garching? I used to go to Ismaning a lot. Seemed like much of the action in the area was branch offices for US firms. Which is why I was there.
And *sigh*, lex. What don't you get? Right now Greece has chosen to be part of the EU, and we didn't need Brussels armies anywhere close to our borders -- we freely chose it and I think it was one of the healthiest choices Greece ever made. I'm afraid that some time, possibly still decades in the future, Greece may freely choose to be part of an Orthodox axis instead, one of the *worst* choices it will ever make. We came close to it in the early 90s -- who knows whether time will bring us a chance to choose it again.
You know, when I'm being detailed I'm accused of babbling with overlong posts here. But any attempt at brevity, will get me this instead.
#34
TGA, there has never been a nation that increased its power with a population that was old and aging, even shrinking, still further.
Europe cannot spend enough to create a credible military even now; how on earth can it afford to avoid falling further behind as its health systems and pension funds go bankrupt in coming decades?
Secondly, the rise in muslim populations foreseen has far less to do with their birthrate and much to do with the level of immigration needed merely to sustain the EU's inverted actuarial structure. It wouldn't matter if muslim family sizes converged with non-muslim family sizes in another two generations; the EU would still have to import millions of young immigrants, who will most likely be overwhelmingly muslim, just to prevent the EU welfare state from collapsing.
If the EU can absorb millions of Chinese instead, then that could be a different story, but I see no evidence that the EU nations would be capable of assimilating such a huge influx of non-whites without social turmoil.
#36
Aris, whining does not substitute for arguing. Or for being informed. Regarding Russia you don't know what you're talking about. Your neo-fascist compatriots' fantasies notwithstanding, there will not be any "Orthodox axis." No one in Russia of sound mind under the age of 60 takes seriously the notion of brataslavyanskiye or the one holy and autocratic Church.
Europe has less need for a costly military than the United States.
Europe is not encouraging Muslim immigration anymore.
Health and pension systems are on their way to reform.
Next 10 to 15 years will be tough but we've weathered bigger storms.
#38
TGA, without massive waves of immigration, the EU will have to greatly scale back its welfare state, reform or no. The numbers don't add up.
FWIW I'd prefer to see Europeans avoid the EUrabian option. Which would require turn away from post-modern selfishness, start to bear and raise more children, and generally adopt more capitalistic societies on our model. France has made some tentative moves in this regard (bonuses for having children, deregulation in certain industries, some tax cutting); I'd prefer to see more progress along these lines. EUrabia's not a foregone conclusion but it will require a very signficant change in the mindset of young Europeans, mainly as regards marriage and family life.
Sure, the US and EU economies are converging, and cross-border investment is soaring and will continue to soar. And it's also true that many urban, middle-class, blue state Americans are adopting a very European attitude toward bearing and raising children, ie, it's viewed by them as a burden, an imposition on individual freedom.
But whereas we easily assimilate our immigrants, who by and large tend to be hardworking strivers, Europe tends to get young resenters who'd rather be on the dole or engaging in jihad or tournantes against their own girls in the banlieues. So I have difficulty sharing TGA's sunny confidence in his best-case scenarios.
#41
There's been a lot of talk recently (I believe on the Wall Street Journal's www.opinionjournal.com site -- the Best of the Web blog) about what they call the "Roe effect". That is, since abortion was legalized, an entire generation of children of liberals were not born, and therefore the younger generation is statistically significantly more conservative. Certainly I see this in my own children and their friends, who are outspokenly against the Democrats and Kerry where my comrades and I took the opposing viewpoint at that age.
I suspect a similar effect will take place in Europe. Those who did not have children will subsequently not have grandchildren. Those who did have children will have even more decendents, and likely in larger numbers.
Part of the problem in Western Europe has been the psychological bind of being the child of evil people (whether nazis, collaborateurs, etc). If one's parents did such things, how wrong to pass that genetic possibility on for future generations to deal with! Studies have shown, for instance, that amongst Germany's postwar generations, fewer committed to long-term relationships, fewer still married, and even fewer had children, at least in the West where the history was acknowledged. But the Eastern Europeans do not share that particular bugaboo, and with the rationalization of their own economies, have plenty of spare population to export. The young generation of Eastern Europeans are very hard working and flexible, either compared to their Communist parents or the union-ridden Western Europeans. And, people within the EU are more likely to move for a job than Europeans were heretofore accustomed to.
This is my long-winded way of saying I think TGA raises valid points (as always), and there is the possibility -- medium-term -- that Europe can save itself from Maghreb status. Especially if the Islamofascists are decisively beaten and discredited before then.
#42
But the Eastern Europeans do not share that particular bugaboo, and with the rationalization of their own economies, have plenty of spare population to export.
Not so. The birthrates in Russia, Poland and Ukraine have plummeted as well during the past two generations. The main cause of this was that, during the communist era, no one could afford to have more than one child; today, no one is confident enough in their economic future to risk having more than one child. The preferred birth control method, btw, in the communist bloc was abortion. Average number of abortions per woman in Russia during her lifetime was somewhere around 7.
Birthrates tend to decline with education and income-- ie, from say 7 or 8 kids for a working-class or farming family that needs the labor to 2-3 kids for an urban professional family. However, a fall in birthrates to levels of 1.2-1.5, as we see in Italy and other declining parts of Europe these days, is a freak in history that can only be explained by noneconomic factors related to feminism and more generally, a profound hostility to family life. There is no corresponding decline among educated, middle-class US families, who continue to marry and have multiple children as their parents did.
#43
My G-d Lex, I miss an apostrophe and you think I'm getting dirty.
No, I meant Siemens AG, the multinational conglomerate based in Germany, that makes ultrasound machines and other medical equipment not far from where I live over here on the left coast.
Why? Because even Microserfs are cheaper to run than Deutsch button pushers.
#44
Sorry, didn't mean to be snarky or dirty. Yes, cross-border investment between us and the EUers is increasing and is definitely a good thing. I'd be happy to see a NAFTA-EU Free Trade Agreement.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
