MOSCOW After North Koreas nuclear bomb test on Monday, US State Department spokesman Ian Kelly noted hopefully that Pyongyangs actions had drawn very strong statements of condemnation from its traditional friends China and Russia. Mr. Kelly suggested they might help in forging a unified response.
But in Moscow, where North Koreas oddball Stalinist dynasty was born and and nurtured for decades, officials appear perplexed and even scared over the Pyongyang regimes increasingly wayward behavior. After years of assailing the George W. Bush administration for failing to appreciate Russias special, Soviet-era relationship with rogue states like North Korea, the collective response of Moscows diplomatic community right now looks like a shrug of helplessness.
If youd asked me even three years ago, I would say Russia has some leverage with Pyongyang. But not today, says Yevgeny Bazhanov, vice rector of the official Diplomatic Academy in Moscow, which trains Russian diplomats.
If Russia, or even China, could do anything about this, these tests wouldnt have taken place this week, he says. Actually, it looks like nobody has any influence over them anymore. This man, (North Korean leader Kim Jong Il) will do whatever he wants.
Russia lost its influence the day Gorbachev fell and the Russians stopped shipping food, oil and low-cost weapons to the Norks. The Chinese stepped in and the the Russians haven't recovered.
Mondays North Korean test took place in a mountainous site barely 100-miles from Russias Pacific coast city of Vladivostok. Russias Ministry of Emergency Services immediately deployed teams of experts to check for radiation spikes, but reportedly found none.
Russia holds permanent membership on the United Nations Security Council, and has indicated that it will support tougher sanctions against Pyongyang in the wake of the tests, which violate previous Security Council resolutions.
Moscow is also involved in the six-party talks, which since 2003 have attempted to convince Pyongyang to curb its nuclear program. But Russian experts say all the supposed progress made in that process, including a 2005 Statement of Principles, under which North Korea agreed to eventually abandon its nuclear ambitions and rejoin the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, has now gone up in smoke.
And remember, that isn't George Bush's fault though he shouldn't have pushed the 2005 Statement. The Norks are moonbat crazy, and Kimmie has to keep his grip on the domestic situation. If that means building a nuke, that's what they'll do.
The USSR established the Pyongyang regime, headed by the current leaders father Kim Il Sung, after World War II. With Soviet and Red Chinese help, North Korea fought the forces of the United Nations to a bloody stalemate in the Korean War of the early 1950s, and has since survived as what is probably the worlds most reclusive, militarized and authoritarian state.
In fact even the Soviet Union didnt have much influence there, and neither did China. The North Koreans effectively played off Moscow against Beijing, says Ivan Zakharchenko, an analyst with the official RIA-Novosti news agency in Moscow.
But Russias relations with North Korea still looked substantial as recently as 2001, when Kim Jong Il rode his armored train to Moscow, where he was feted and treated like an important partner by then-President Vladimir Putin.
Putin doesn't have much too offer since the world economy has slowed.
Today, Russia maintains almost no trade with Pyongyang, and its once-vaunted diplomatic pull has shriveled to virtually nil, say Russian experts.
Nobody wants a war, says Mr. Bazhanov. The only alternative is to go back to the drawing board. Put on sanctions, hold talks, try to convince them not to go any further. But it doesnt look good.
We could try to engineer a palace coup -- how much worse could a new leader be? We could try to flood the populace with news and information. We could try to get the various factions in the North fighting with each other. We could support a break-away warlord -- in fact, up near Russia would be a nice place. Putin did this in Georgia, why not in North Korea?
But no, ev'ryone's wringing their hands instead. Can't do anything about North Korea if it involves courage.
Posted by: Steve White ||
05/30/2009 00:00 ||
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#1
It is telling that there is no headline which reads, "Can China Stop North Korea's Nuclear March?" The world seems to be suffering from a mass negative hallucination.
#2
RUSSIA is repor strengthening its milfors along its CENTRAL ASIA borders, which IMO directly infers its expects any NOKOR TRUUUBLES to seriously spread and affect these regions.
#3
Why would Russia want to stop North Korea? So, the Norks have a few bombs and missles, even with major deteriation of Moscow's military capibility since the end of the cold war, they would have no trouble squashing puny North Korea. The bombs and missles are negotitation tools not weapons of war. If the NORKs pop 'em off they lose everything. They know it and aren't sucidal like the powers in Iran. They can't afford to use them.
Posted by: Richard of Oregon ||
05/30/2009 1:15 Comments ||
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#4
ION WORLD AFFAIRS BOARD > SEPARATIST MOVEMENTS IN THE PHILIPPINES; +
* WORLD MIL FORUM > RAND CORPORATION REPORT: BY 2020 CHINA WILL BE VERY POOR.
I've always assumed they never intended to use them but to sell them for cash to nuts like Iran that will. They have no other assets or resources. Russia and China are apathetic because they most likely won't be the recipients of a mushroom cloud but the US, whom they consider arrogant pests at best and enemies to the hardliners. The US and Israel always seem to stand alone and this administration doesn't look promising in standing them down.
#6
What do you think would happen if we told the NORKs that if they don't cease and desist with the nukes we will send drones over NK and take out Dear Leaders bedroom? Reagan did something like that and got a troublesome dictator to quiet down a bit.
Posted by: Richard of Oregon ||
05/30/2009 11:53 Comments ||
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#7
Reagan did something like that and got a troublesome dictator to quiet down a bit. That particular dictator didn't share a border with one of our significant allies, didn't share a border with China and Russia, & didn't have a vast number of artillery pieces zeroed in on our ally's capital city. Location, location, location is not just a Realtor®'s slogan.
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