[JustTheNews] Young men from non-intact families are more likely to end up in prison or jail, drop out of high school or not graduate from college.
"What we see for young men today is a family-to-prison-or-college pipeline that is more likely to deliver boys from intact families towards college graduation and boys from non-intact families towards prison or jail," the report states. "Young men raised by their two married, biological parents are almost 20 percentage points more likely to graduate college than end up in prison/jail."
It points to research conducted by an economics professor and research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research who found that declining marriage rates are "driving many of the country's biggest economic problems." The research found that young men who grew up in a married household with their two biological parents are more likely to graduate college, among other outcomes.
The IFS report also points to a Journal of Research on Adolescence report that found that adolescent boys are more likely to be incarcerated if they grew up in father-absent households.
It also analyzes federal data that shows that "young men raised by their two married, biological parents … are almost 20 percentage points more likely to graduate college than end up in prison/jail. Strikingly, this is the only group where graduating college is more likely than prison/jail. Meanwhile, the statistic flips for young men from non-intact families."
According to the National Fatherhood Initiative, nearly 20 million American children live in homes where their biological fathers do not live.
#1
Time for the feminazis to eat crow in 3,2,...oh, who am I kidding?
Posted by: Tom ||
06/16/2024 13:07 Comments ||
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#2
...they may drink Old Crow with their cat(s) in the evening, but it was the goal of the Marxists to destroy society to create a zero year to impose their rule. Plan is working pretty good from the casualty lists.
[American Thinker] Blind hatred of America is so yesterday. It’s shadowboxing an opponent who has exited the ring. Activists on college campuses today, whether agitating for Hamas, BLM, or Occupy Wall Street, are fighting a caricature of America from the 1950s and ’60s, an America that doesn’t exist anymore. It’s the America of Bill Ayers and Richard Nixon — the radicals versus the squares and the capitalist pigs. They are obsessed with a phantom that faded away years ago.
A movie called The Music Never Stopped tells the story of a young man named Gabriel, who left home just before high school graduation in 1968 after a fight with his father over his views on America and the Vietnam War. Set in 1986, his parents haven’t seen him in 18 years, until they learn he is undergoing brain surgery to remove a benign tumor. The tumor is large, and its removal affects his memory processing, making it difficult for him to form new memories and trapping him in the familiar environment of the ’60s.
As Gabriel recovers, he asks about his friend, Mark, whom he had last seen when Mark got his draft card. His father tells him Mark died in Vietnam, and he cries out, "That bastard Nixon!" Gabriel is still fighting the bogeyman of yesterday in 1986. Today’s leftist protesters have a similar tumor on the brain, planted there by their university faculty. Like the character in the movie, they are all fighting yesterday’s enemy.
America today is far removed from the unreconstructed America that student radicals in the ’60s hated. From the boardroom to the stock room, America is now almost entirely woke, groveling in abject and continual apology. Diversity and inclusion are enshrined in our national life, despite the constant lectures on race. Movies and television are full of "people of color." Our national sports heroes are almost all black. Mixed-race couples dominate our national advertising. (Fortunately, we have an army of grievance professionals available to interpret the "systemic" racism in our every word and gesture, which they will do for large sums of money.)
In addition, marriage redefined is the law of the land. Gay pride is celebrated for the entire month of June. Homosexuality is mainstream. On transgenderism, parents in some states are still trying to establish their right to stop their minor children from being sexually mutilated without their consent. We’re woke, okay? The jury has spoken.
Nonetheless, leftist radicals take today’s events and jam them into the Procrustean bed of a 1960s worldview. College students with their Hamas sit-ins follow a playbook right out of the ’60s. Fight the power! Hillary Clinton, the student radical who insulted Republican senator Edward Brooke to his face while she addressed her graduating class at Wellesley, and Barack Obama, acolyte of radical organizer Saul Alinsky and Weatherman Bill Ayers in Chicago, would approve.
But the war is over. The left fought for and won on civil rights, women’s rights, and sexual freedom. It’s time to accept victory.
Young people are beginning to sense that white supremacists, uptight Christians, and big business aren’t really the problem anymore. The problem today isn’t the "establishment" making life miserable for people who want to live the way they want to; today, the establishment is the government. It’s the government’s power over their lives that young people should be fighting. The outdated ideology forced on today’s young people is pointing them at the wrong targets. An executive order forcing radical transgender policies on high schools and universities or a border policy allowing criminals and terrorists to flood into the country is much more likely to make an impact on their lives.
The radicals from the ’60s who wrote the playbook on campus activism went into the propaganda business at American colleges. But the young radicals they trained who are coming out of college today aren’t true believers. Their commitment is half-hearted, as demonstrated in their lack of understanding of the issues they protest, most recently the Hamas/Israel war.
Marxist radicals from the ’60s can’t accept that they didn’t carry the day back then, and they think they are poised to win now. But they’re wrong. Although the "vanguard" has expanded exponentially thanks to their campus indoctrination, the proletariat ain’t what it used to be. That’s why young people and minority voters are flocking to Trump.
Fifty years ago, young people were radicalized by the Vietnam War and the cultural changes roiling America after World War II. The Baby Boom gave that generation heft, and changes in American society created anxious young people acting out their anger against their square parents and an unjust war.
Similarly, black Americans were emerging from Jim Crow in the South and fighting for their rightful place in American society. But that’s not the case today. America is more diverse and integrated than ever before, despite what today’s DIE "experts" tell you, and people know it. Meanwhile, technological change has created a higher standard of living for all, and mindless entertainment on our smartphones makes it difficult to generate the raw anger required for revolution.
It’s not hard to see why the professional activists in the Hamas protests got more pushback than traction. America today is not fertile ground for Marxist revolution, despite all the funding being poured into it by George Soros and others. The George Floyd riots were an Antifa-fueled COVID lockdown phenomenon, not likely to be repeated. With little buy-in from the young generation, the ’60s playbook for revolution that leftist professors are pushing isn’t going to accomplish much.
Young people in this country are happy to be Americans, although they are worried about the future. In the Hamas demonstrations, the crowds have a smattering of students, but they are largely professional anarchists like Antifa, antisemitic anti-Israel groups, Muslim supporters of the Hamas terrorists, and homosexual and transgender activists like Queers for Palestine. (The cognitive dissonance of Queers for Palestine should give anybody a brain cramp.) University students might come out briefly because the university propaganda machine trains them to respond, but real support is thin.
Widespread and vigorous activism among young people should be percolating today, both on college campuses and in the streets. But it should be led by conservative activists, not radical leftists. What should they be agitating about? How about the national debt, which grows like a cancer, destroying the hopes and dreams of this generation, or Biden’s open border policy, bringing in wage competitors and criminals, or the looming threat of World War III, courtesy of our overseas military adventure in Ukraine.
If young people want to hit the streets this summer, grab a placard and do it for issues that will really affect your lives. If activists could channel their energy into something other than the perpetual grievance machine, who knows what might come of it? They might make the world a better place, instead of just complaining about it.
#2
It will be The Spanish Inquisition. Nobody expects that.
Posted by: Super Hose ||
06/16/2024 9:36 Comments ||
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#3
People fight the fight that they like to fight.
If it's irrelevant and doesn't matter, no problem.
They are in a happy little fiction where they're the hero.
Posted by: ed in texas ||
06/16/2024 11:25 Comments ||
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#5
One perspective of the American War of Independence was a movement to return to the 'benign neglect' of London that existed before the Seven Years War/French and Indian War. Pretty much ingrained in our culture still - just leave us alone. If that's the 'revolution' they're seeking to ignite, flame on.
[The Free Press] Happy Father’s Day in the United States! I thought that, to celebrate, I would do the obvious thing and highlight a speech by the feminist Camille Paglia.
One of the strangest things that has happened in my lifetime is the emergence of the man as a pathetic figure, or a figure of fun. For the last fifteen years or so, you could see it in every walk of life—nowhere more so than in advertising.
There are two things you can always predict with 100 percent certainty if a family, any family, is featured in an advertisement. The first is that the family will be biracial. The second is that the man (especially if he is white) will be portrayed as an incompetent or a loser. If the problem is wrestling with the remote control, the children and wife will patiently have to show poor old dad how to work the darn thing. It is a small but significant example of a wider trend, because this is a time in which male role models have been stripped away from the culture.
We may have the culture of the "strong woman," which I referred to in my Mother’s Day column. But "strong man" is a phrase now used to denote fear and even loathing.
College dropout rates and levels of suicide among young men are just some of the many data points that underscore how males in Western society have become demoralized. "Macho" traits such as strength and competitiveness are now categorized as "toxic masculinity" rather than accepted as a natural part of humanity that have helped to build our successful economy and society.
Can some men be toxic? Yes. Obviously.
Can some women? Yes. Obviously.
So, why does the culture obsess over the ways in which men can be toxic and effectively ignore tarring all women with the equivalent brush?
The answer, I feel, is an apparent attempt to demoralize men. Just last month, officials in the Australian state of Victoria announced the creation of a new position in the government: secretary for Men’s Behavior Change.
"This is the first position of its kind in Australia and will focus largely on the influence the internet and social media have on boys’ and men’s attitudes towards women and building respectful relationships," the newly appointed secretary, Tim Richardson, a Labor Party member of parliament, tweeted.
If you think that "secretary for Men’s Behavior Change" has a strangely Orwellian ring to it, then you would be right: this is social engineering. This is the government deciding how the governed are to comport themselves. It is meant to change people, subtly and powerfully and permanently.
But again, note that nobody is suggesting the appointment of a "secretary for Women’s Behavior Change." Because, again, women are not seen as "the problem." Today, men are the problem, the bully, the butt of the joke.
Only an exceptionally brave woman could wade into this sea of male-bashing and help us rethink such institutionalized misandry. Enter: Camille Paglia, the iconoclastic literature scholar and culture critic who teaches at University of the Arts in Philadelphia and, in 2013, took part in a Munk Debate, in Toronto.
In addition to being an admirer of Paglia’s thinking and writing, I have always been a fan of her verbal skills. She is not the most soothing orator to listen to. Her style often sounds like someone machine-gunning a tin roof. But the sheer dexterity, speed, commitment, and energy of her delivery are something to behold.
#1
Ha! He'll never see the inside of a jail cell. Two months of probation at most. Unsupervised.
Posted by: Rambler in Virginia ||
06/16/2024 6:45 Comments ||
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#2
Bets are a $$,000 fine for each charge.
Plus 2+ years probation. Then a Pardon by JB as he resigns.
Other bets are:
* 6 months Drug Rehab and 3 to 5 years Probation. Followed by a Pardon after the election night.
* Some jail time in a Club Fed/Club Med.
Followed by a Pardon after the election night.
At the low end, a Hillary type solution. with less than a week before election night. With the Liberal Media 24/7 10x an hour blaming a Trump supporter, or Far Right Wing Extremest.
#3
What the guy in the video says is that Hunter should not receive probation because that is not available with respect to federal sentencing guidelines for gun crimes. Regardless, I don’t see Joe making it to the election as a candidate or being able to physically finish his term in office. For instance, when was the last time you saw Joe ride a bike?
Mostly Hunter is screwed. If they remove Joe by the 25th Amendment, he can’t do a bunch of pardons on the way out the door. Hunter has leveraged his father’s power into an unsustainable lifestyle that will surely end in the near term. Having a background in extortion, influence peddling, money laundering and smut is not going to generate much interest via LinkedIn.
At one time Rolling Stone might have hired him to take drugs and write groovy stuff, but they are broke. Hunter does possess a wealth of information about stuff that he should not know. All of that info is more likely to earn him a dirt nap rather than a paycheck. He is also due to lose Secret Service protection some time soon.
In short, the betting markets should be on his life expectancy not his prison term.
Posted by: Super Hose ||
06/16/2024 10:07 Comments ||
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#4
^ Likely analysis. Hunter has no value to any political operation going forward. If he did have interactions with the IC he is now a liability and a loose end.
He has no more "access" to sell.
Posted by: M. Murcek ||
06/16/2024 10:13 Comments ||
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#5
What happened to the guns he laid his hands on. Maybe they need to send that ATF assault force to find out.
[Jonathan Turley @ The Hill] This week, Attorney General Merrick Garland took to the pages of the Washington Post to lash out at critics who are spreading what he considers "conspiracy theories crafted and spread for the purpose of undermining public trust in the judicial process itself." His column, titled "Unfounded attacks on the Justice Department must end," missed the point.
It is Garland himself who has become the problem. The solution is in Wilmington, Delaware, where 12 average citizens just showed a commitment to the rule of law that seems to be harder and harder for the attorney general to meet. Since his appointment, Garland has repeated a mantra that he is apolitical and would never yield to the pressures of politics or the White House. When he was nominated, I believed that claim and enthusiastically supported Garland’s confirmation. He was, I thought, the perfect man for the job after his distinguished judicial service as a moderate judge.
I was wrong. Garland’s tenure as attorney general has shown a pronounced reluctance to take steps that would threaten President Biden. He slow-walked the appointment of a special counsel investigating any Biden, and then excluded from the counsel’s scope any investigation of the massive influence peddling operation by Hunter Biden, his uncle and others.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: Frank G ||
06/16/2024 00:00 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
[140 views]
Top|| File under: Tin Hat Dictators, Presidents for Life, & Kleptocrats
#1
QUESTION OF THE DAY
What alternatives do, WE THE PEOPLE HAVE?
When the Vote & Counting processes are clearly compromised.
When elected officials no longer have to worry about Voters or corrective administrations to apply justice.
When elected officials & their Elite Owners, control Social Media and the NEWS narrative, arrest, imprison bloggers and have silenced the Citizens.
When elected officials violate the Bill Of Rights, and they write new rules/regs at are clear violation of the US Constitution regarding the 2nd amendment.
So, I'll ask again.
What legal recourse for Constitutional Justice,
do WE THE PEOPLE HAVE?
#2
not just DOJ which is holding back info on Biden
the National Archives still has thousands of emails (maybe tens of thousands) that Biden sent or received from pseudonym addresses. Some have been released verbatim. Some redacted, some not yet released.
Posted by: Lord Garth ||
06/16/2024 8:04 Comments ||
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#3
/\ Issues of National Security likely in play. These things take time. It will all come out, you'll see.
#4
Corruption is a correct term for a corrosive process where something, once pristine, degrades over time. Garland was in charge of Waco. The corruption process is long completed. He’s as corroded as a used Pinto hatchback driving around East Cleveland.
Posted by: Super Hose ||
06/16/2024 11:20 Comments ||
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#5
/\
Garland wasn't in charge of the Waco action (which was headed by the ATF) but was in charge of the aftermath of the bombing of the federal center in Oklahoma City which was headed by the DOJ.
Posted by: Lord Garth ||
06/16/2024 17:03 Comments ||
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#6
^ Janet Reno IIRC
Posted by: Frank G ||
06/16/2024 21:56 Comments ||
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#1
“The King of Conception” is not some Israeli war minister. It was and will remain former NBA player Shawn Kemp.
Posted by: Super Hose ||
06/16/2024 9:26 Comments ||
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#2
^ Antonio Cromartie will have a busy Father's Day today
Posted by: Frank G ||
06/16/2024 10:55 Comments ||
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#3
The guy who is charged with providing security on a budget is doomed to failure. The only way determine the value "just enough" is by finding out "not quite good enough".
Posted by: ed in texas ||
06/16/2024 11:30 Comments ||
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[JNS] Americans expected Osama bin Laden to be found in a cave in Afghanistan. In reality, he was living comfortably in a military town in Pakistan under the protection of local authorities. Similarly, Israeli hostages, including the four who were rescued last Saturday, have come home telling stories of being kept captive in "civilian" households.
Many in the West fundamentally misunderstand what Islamic terrorism is. It’s not a "fringe group of extremists," as politicians and the media describe it, but an ethnic and religious movement. The religious values of Islamic terrorists are universally shared by the vast majority of Muslims, while the ethnic ones ground Islamic warfare in the interests of specific clans and families. Hamas is an arm of the Muslim Brotherhood and has a widespread base of support across the Muslim world, which is dotted with branches of the Brotherhood. But its ethnic power base is also grounded in the key clans and families that control Gaza. That is why Hamas still retains the support of the majority of the Muslim colonists currently occupying Gaza. It’s also why those same "civilians" held Israeli hostages prisoner and could be trusted not to inform on them.
The latest Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research poll shows that 71% of Gazans support the Hamas atrocities of Oct. 7, and 56% expect Hamas to win the war. Some 62% in Gaza are happy about Hamas’s performance during the war, and 59% want Hamas to stay in power. That’s because they are Hamas and the terror group is also them.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: Grom the Reflective ||
06/16/2024 00:00 ||
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Link ||
[116 views]
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#2
a muslim is a person who adheres to sharia law.
sharia law states that female opinion is worth less than male opinion. muslims should not be welcome here.
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Kirill Semenov
[REGNUM] The Israeli Air Force is carrying out massive strikes on southern Lebanon after an escalation of fighting between the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) and Lebanese Hezbollah on the border of the two countries. The activity of modern Israeli aviation is complemented by the unexpected use by ground forces of medieval catapults and trebuchets to throw incendiary mixtures. The seemingly strange medieval tactic was probably the only way IDF commanders could think of to set fire to the bush on the Lebanese side where Hezbollah fighters might be hiding. This may also indicate the beginning of preparations for an Israeli ground invasion of Southern Lebanon and the creation of a safe pre-field for the deployment of larger forces directly along the border.
The escalation began on Tuesday, June 11, when an Israeli strike killed Taleb Abdullah,
…alternative spelling Taleb Abdallah, killed with three henchmen in Jouaiyya, 15 km from the Israeli border …
commander of the Nasr Division, one of Hezbollah's three main formations. In response, Hezbollah launched rocket attacks into northern Israel and the occupied Golan Heights.
The Iran-backed group, whose name translates to "Party of God," fired 170 rockets at Israeli positions on Wednesday. The attacks continued on Thursday.
In particular, the strikes hit six Israeli military targets, and the arsenal of weapons used was supplemented by a squadron of drones that hit three Israeli bases. The targets included the main intelligence center in northern Israel.
The current escalation between Hezbollah and Israel is the largest since October 7, 2023, when Hezbollah came out in support of Palestinian Hamas allies and now threatens to escalate into a full-scale war between Israel and Lebanon.
HIKE TO THE NORTH
It is worrying that the current round of confrontation occurred immediately after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on June 5, during a visit to border villages on the Lebanese-Israeli border, said that the Israeli army was ready “for very powerful actions” in the north of the country, and the government announced an additional conscription of 50 thousand reservists into the army.
Why worrying? Israel warned —> Israel acts. Otherwise, why bother?
Back in April, Israel's Channel 13 reported that the IDF had completed preparations for a potential military campaign in the north. According to him, the military’s initial plan is to push back Hezbollah fighters 8-10 kilometers deep into Lebanese territory. De facto, this would be consistent with the essence of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 adopted in 2006, which ordered Hezbollah to withdraw its military to the Litani River.
It should be borne in mind that Hezbollah itself did not set out to launch an invasion of Israel, only supporting its Hamas allies with rocket attacks and strikes on IDF positions in the border area. The red line after which the Party of God will be ready to move on to full-scale operations will be the threat of the complete destruction of Hamas. However, this has not happened so far.
The limiting factor for Hezbollah’s more active involvement in the conflict is its position in Lebanon.
The “Party of God” is primarily a Lebanese political force, represented in the country’s government and parliament, and only secondarily a member of the “axis of resistance” led by Iran.
Therefore, Hezbollah will correlate any of its steps with how the Lebanese themselves will perceive it, who are by no means eager to be drawn into the conflict and, to one degree or another, share the fate of the Palestinians of Gaza who are dying under bombs. Naturally, such a scenario will have a negative impact on Hezbollah’s popularity in Lebanon.
Based on this, Hezbollah itself is inclined to act from the position of not a “spear”, but a “shield” against Israel, and if Israel itself launches an invasion of Lebanon, then here the “Party of God”, acting as a defender of Lebanon, on the contrary, can strengthen positions. Especially if, as in 2006, the group manages to emerge victorious from the confrontation. Or at least not lose.
It’s the not losing that’s key. Kind of like getting a pension from the CIA.
Although it should be noted that, despite the success in 2006, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was still forced to make excuses to the Lebanese who suffered from the conflict, claiming that he did not expect such harsh and cruel actions by Israel, which decided to invade.
STRONG OPPONENT
For Israel, Hezbollah will still remain the “sword of Damocles”, which does not allow its residents to be safe.
The events of October 7 have already demonstrated how vulnerable Israeli defenses are. Now Israeli leaders need to reassure their population that this time the intelligence services can anticipate any attack and the military can stop it.
This is a difficult task given Hezbollah's capabilities, and the discreditation of military and intelligence officials following the Al-Aqsa Flood has made it even more difficult.
The Lebanese Party of God has a much higher military potential than the Palestinian Hamas. And if they decide to invade, the group’s DRGs could penetrate much deeper into Israeli territory, threatening large cities, such as Haifa.
In this context, the only option for the Netanyahu regime may be a preventive invasion of Lebanon. Until a buffer zone is created in southern Lebanon, the threat of a breach of the border line and a Hezbollah invasion of Israel will be a constant risk. This risk will also prevent the return of temporarily displaced Israelis, of whom there are more than 100 thousand, to the north of the country.
The Netanyahu government is already facing criticism for what happened on the northern border.
Thus, according to Avigdor Lieberman, a former finance minister who heads the opposition party, the Israeli government was weak in the north: “The red line turned into a white flag - the war cabinet surrendered to Hezbollah and lost the north.”
AT THE PEAK OF FORM
Israel does have something to fear, as Hezbollah is now at the peak of its military form.
The Party of God was able to fully recover from the losses it suffered during the Syrian civil war. The core of the most experienced fighters who went through the Syrian campaign remained in the ranks; appropriate conclusions were drawn and the experience of Hezbollah’s participation in that conflict was generalized.
Good job, guys! You’re now thoroughly trained in fighting low tech, semi-trained jihadis specializing in mobile mass attacks, where the most important skill, as far as I can tell, is to hold your position as a unit and not flee in terror. Fighting the IDF requires you not to be a recognizable target or at/near a target location, a very different skill. But perhaps Allah will at some point change his mind and help you survive what’s to come…
At the same time, the group received new modern weapons from Iran, which it did not yet have during the Syrian war. In addition, as a result of the Syrian conflict, the “Party of God” was able to acquire a fleet of armored vehicles, forming mechanized units equipped with T-72, T-62 and T-55 tanks. According to some reports, Hezbollah was also able to obtain the Pantsir air defense missile system.
Oooohhhh…. is that one of the ones that is no help whatsoever against the IAF?
The elite of Hezbollah’s armed wing is the Al-Haj Radwan regiment, a special forces assault unit that can be classified as “commando”, numbering 2.5 thousand fighters in its ranks.
But the backbone of Hezbollah’s forces remains the light infantry, which includes about 30 thousand active fighters, distributed across three infantry divisions “Nasr”, “Badr” and “Aziz”, and up to 20 thousand trained reservists. However, in a short time, the number of armed formations of the “Party of God” and allied forces can be increased to 100 thousand people.
Do they come pre-trained, ready to fight as a unit? Because if not, what use are they in this kind of war?
Some Lebanese Sunni factions are already operating in the ranks of Hezbollah, for example, the Dawn Forces, which represent the military wing of the Lebanese Muslim Brotherhood (banned in the Russian Federation).
The group can also count on fighters from its allied Lebanese Shiite movement Amal, which is capable of deploying up to 15 thousand people, using them under the Hezbollah flag. And this despite the fact that about 3 thousand Amal fighters are already forming the 6th brigade of the Lebanese ground forces.
It is obvious that help for Hezbollah will also come from Syria, where numerous units operating under the auspices of the “Islamic resistance” (the military wing of Hezbollah), consisting not only of Lebanese, but also of Syrians, as well as Iraqis, are deployed, and are known as "Syrian Hezbollah".
Hezbollah uses modern methods of warfare, its fighters and commanders are trained in stealth, mobility and autonomy, and its tactics are based on a concept that NATO calls “mission command”.
Under this methodology, subordinates are given the opportunity to make independent decisions on the battlefield only based on the general intentions of the commander. This force structure allows Hezbollah to operate effectively in small groups in the face of overwhelming Israeli firepower.
After the 2006 war, Hezbollah continued to exploit the strengths of this approach as it continued to decentralize its command and reorganize itself.
In the event of hostilities, it is capable of forcing the IDF to fight in mountainous or urban areas, where movement fighters can take advantage of hidden fortified positions and operate from ambushes in small groups.
ROCKET FIST
Hezbollah’s missile potential is also impressive, including various versions of the Soviet OTR SCUD, numbering up to 50 units with a range of 300–500 kilometers. In addition, a similar class of missiles is represented by the more modern Iranian Fateh-110, capable of hitting targets at a distance of 300 kilometers. The group has an arsenal of 400 such missiles.
Hezbollah is also armed with thousands of Iranian Zelzal-1 and Zelzal-2 missiles with a 600-kilogram warhead and a range of up to 200 kilometers.
Finally, the “Party of God” has more than 100 thousand MLRS missiles Fajr, Falaq, Raad, Shahin, Burqan, etc., which can be used from various non-standard launchers with high mobility and stealth. Many launchers are designed on light vehicles or are generally portable. It may take only half a minute to dismantle them and cover them after a shot.
This arsenal is complemented by more than 2 thousand drones, among which there are modern Iranian-made UAVs of the Mohajer-4/Mirsad-2 (equipped with ATGM), Shahed-129/Ayoub (with two 34-kg bombs), Samed (KAS-04), Karrar (two 125-kilogram bombs, ATGM or anti-ship missiles), Saegheh and others. Hezbollah UAVs have already successfully overcome Israeli air defenses, hitting military targets on its territory after October 7, 2023.
The “Party of God” has the real ability, if necessary, to overload Israeli air defense and hit strategically important targets throughout Israel with the most effective and heaviest missiles.
That has, indeed, been the key threat thus far. Though at one point the claim was that Hezbollah had 150,000 rockets and missiles. Where did the last third of them go?
In general, Hezbollah's use of more advanced weapons, including missile-equipped UAVs, kamikaze drones and a new Iranian-made ATGM known as the Almas-4, which has proven highly effective, has already caused alarm among the Israeli military.
The IDF like getting alarmed. It helps them focus beyond the immediate needs of the moment.
Here we can also recall the Tharallah ATGM, created specifically to overcome the active protection of Israeli Merkava tanks.
All this is superimposed on the difficult terrain, where in the event of an invasion the Israeli army will have to advance along narrow mountain roads, exposing armored vehicles to attacks from ATGMs and remote mines.
THE HISTORY OF WARS IS NOT IN FAVOR OF ISRAEL
Israel has fought Hezbollah several times since its creation in the early 1980s, mostly unsuccessfully.
They’ve fought to mow the grass thus far, not to win definitively. Looking at the war in Gaza, that seems to have changed.
The first success of the “Party of God” was the withdrawal of the IDF from southern Lebanon and the defeat of the local pro-Israeli puppet government in 2000.
Since early 1999, the group has intensified attacks against the Israeli military and its proxies in occupied Lebanon. The commander of the Israeli Golani brigade and an entire platoon of Israeli paratroopers were killed in the ambushes.
One of the commanders of the puppet forces of Southern Lebanon, Akl Hashem, was blown up in his own home. Israeli territory was periodically fired upon by Hezbollah rockets, which led to American strikes on the group’s positions.
In the spring of 2000, Hezbollah became significantly more active, operations were accompanied by constant attacks on Israeli military posts in the occupied territory of Lebanon. On May 24, Israel announced that it would withdraw all troops from southern Lebanon. His entire force left Lebanon by the end of the next day, more than six weeks before the deadline.
The IDF withdrawal led to the rapid advance of Hezbollah forces and the defection of the pro-Israeli army from southern Lebanon. This was seen as a landslide victory for Hezbollah and greatly increased its popularity in the country, especially after Lebanese Muslims were able to return to liberated territories from which they had previously been expelled by pro-Israeli Christian militias.
Despite Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon, Hezbollah continued to attack it from time to time under the pretext that the small area at the intersection of the Lebanon-Syria-Israel border, Shebaa Farm, remained occupied. Hezbollah claimed that the farms were Lebanese territory and thus the Israeli occupation continued.
A low-intensity conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalated into full-scale war in 2006 following a cross-border kidnapping operation by Hezbollah against Israeli military personnel.
It is significant that at that time the “Party of God” deflected the blow from Hamas, against which an invading army had already been deployed. As a result of Hezbollah's actions, it was transferred to the north and began an offensive in southern Lebanon.
Many Israelis considered the war a disaster due to the high death toll and huge losses of armored vehicles. Then the brigade set was knocked out, in particular 52 Merkava tanks, most of which, however, were restored and returned to service after the conflict. The IDF's performance on the battlefield was widely criticized.
The 2006 war ended with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, according to which Israeli troops were forced to leave Lebanon again. A buffer zone was created between the Blue Line (border) and the Litani River along the borders of Israel, Lebanon and Syria.
Hezbollah, however, rejected such language, saying its troops would not leave. Despite this, the IDF was still forced to leave Lebanon, unable to effectively confront Hezbollah and push it out of the buffer zone.
The lessons of the Lebanese wars are well remembered in Israel, which is why many politicians point out the risks that the IDF will face if the “Third Lebanon War” breaks out. Up to forecasts about the defeat of Israeli units in Southern Lebanon.
However, on the other side of the scale lies the risk of Hezbollah invading Israel itself, which forces the country to live under constant threat. In any case, Israel now has no good solutions.
#4
israel has no choice. They have enclaves of people sworn to israels destruction and enemies on their borders. israel needs to 1: obliterate gaza and west-bank. 2 not allow followers of sharia to live in israel. go to war with hezbollah and kill them all. Tell egypt and jordan to shut-up.
#5
Israel might want to wait until deployment of more air defense weapon systems such as Red Sky against low flying UAVs) and Iron Beam against missiles
Posted by: Lord Garth ||
06/16/2024 18:36 Comments ||
Top||
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
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