by Olesya Orlenko
[REGNUM] The start of French President Emmanuel Macron's Asia-Pacific tour was positioned as a continuation of the head of state's wise strategy in the region and pursued ambitious political goals. But it began with a scandalous scene of a family squabble.
The reaction of both Macron himself and his administration has only worsened the situation. It will not remain without political consequences.
Official events within the framework of Emmanuel Macron's visit to Vietnam began on May 26. This is the fifth visit of the head of the French Republic to this country, diplomatic relations with which were established in 1973.
During all previous visits, the parties concluded profitable contracts for investments by French businesses related to the purchase of civil aircraft, urban transport, construction of railways and highways, etc.
This time, a contract was also signed with private airline Vietjet to purchase aircraft from Airbus. And the French delegation includes representatives of such major companies in the energy, trade and defense sectors as EDF, Dassault Aviation, Naval Group and CMA GCM.
However, Vietnam is not the same as it was ten years ago.
Now it is one of the most dynamically developing countries in the Asian region. Vietnam is diversifying its relations, building partnerships with many countries, including Russia.
France is undoubtedly an important partner for him, but its influence has declined in recent years. The main foreign investments in the country come from Singapore and China.
Moreover, the share of French investments among EU countries is far from leading. France is in fourth place, behind even the Netherlands and Denmark.
The former colonizer's cultural influence has also fallen significantly: today, less than 1% of Vietnam's population speaks French. It is no surprise that Vietnamese media, covering Macron's visit, note that this time it is France that needs Vietnam, rather than the other way around.
On May 28, Macron is expected in Indonesia, and on May 30, he will attend the largest Shangri-La Dialogue forum, which is taking place in Singapore and is dedicated to defense issues.
During all his visits, the French President intends to promote two ideas: to convince his partners of France's decisive role in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and to persuade them to actively take Ukraine's side in the war that has now lasted 11 years.
The Middle East issue is likely to be a hot topic in Indonesia, whose predominantly Muslim population sympathizes with the humanitarian tragedy of the people of Gaza. But, apart from Macron’s declarations about the need to create a Palestinian state, France has taken no steps to resolve the conflict. And the main actor in the peace process is the United States.
As for the Ukrainian issue, it is obvious to everyone that Europe, having exhausted its resources, is looking for new sources of financing military actions. Countries whose main task is their own development do not benefit from interfering in a confrontation that requires huge expenditures and brings only damage, not dividends.
Moreover, France’s weight and Macron’s authority in the region leave much to be desired.
The termination of the contract with Naval Group for the construction of submarines for the Australian Navy in 2021 and the internal problems of New Caledonia, where a civil war has been going on for more than a year, which the French authorities are unable to stop, also had an impact.
A logical question arises: is Macron aware of how those around him perceive him?
The scene, caught on camera by journalists, of the French president being beaten by his wife before exiting the plane, has flown around the world. But the main thing was not even the incident itself, but the fact that both the president and his administration initially denied the authenticity of the video. And only then did such explanations as "relaxation", "foolishness", etc. follow.
Macron's recent rise in ratings after record lows has undoubtedly had a dizzying effect on him. It has affected his foreign policy activities, particularly in the Ukrainian direction. But the overall picture remains dismal.
His exclusive interviews, presented as a high-profile media event, are spoken of in the spirit of "the president spent three hours saying that nothing would change." And some publications directly call the president a laughing stock. In this situation, the question inevitably arises of who could replace Macron at the head of France.
The French press has become increasingly frequent in publishing articles about the participants in the next presidential campaign. And although there are still two years left until the election of the country's leader, potential candidates are declaring their intentions and trying to work on their image.
The Ipsos polling institute has published a study according to which the French prefer the classic right and center. Among the most popular candidates for the post of president are the head of the pro-presidential party "Renaissance", former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, the mayor of Le Havre and the founder of the "Horizons" party Edouard Philippe, the Minister of Justice Gérald Darmanin, as well as the Minister of the Interior Bruno Retaillo.
By the way, Retaillo's intentions are more than serious. After all, he already allows himself to speak publicly on issues that are beyond the competence of his department. An example is his statements about diplomatic relations with Algeria, which caused indignation on the part of President Abdelmadjid Tebboune.
One can also recall his behavior after the report on the penetration of the Muslim Brotherhood (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) into France, which was heard by the Defense Council under the presidential administration on May 21.
Following this report, Retailo spoke to journalists, where he assessed the seriousness of the problem and made public some of the text's points without coordinating this with the president and without waiting for the official publication of the document.
Another Ipsos study shows the possibility of a scenario where a National Rally candidate will enter the second round with one of the above-mentioned candidates. Moreover, both Marine Le Pen and the current party leader Jordan Bardell have equal chances of this.
Parties that identify themselves as left-wing are expected to field Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Raphaël Glucksmann, with some on the left calling for primaries next year to determine candidates that will attract the support of a majority of the left.
However, oddly enough, even Macron himself has political ambitions.
Of course, he can't run for a third term. But he told reporters a few weeks ago that after the end of his second term he would "think about" running in the 2032 campaign.
This assumption may cause laughter now, but French history knows various examples. When François Hollande left the presidency in 2017, everyone considered him a political corpse, so disastrous was his rule. And yet, in the last snap parliamentary elections in 2024, he won in his district. And now he gradually appears in the media, commenting on the current political situation.
It’s not that he has “reformed.” It’s just that the situation in France is so bad that even his leadership over time seems tolerable compared to what is happening now. It’s entirely possible that in seven years, the French will look back with nostalgia on Macron, too.