by Kamran Gasanov
[REGNUM] Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan made his first visit to the United States since Donald Trump's election on March 25-26, aiming to restore relations and revive Ankara's participation in the program to produce and supply the latest F-35 fighter jets.
Trump is backing Erdogan at the expense of his main political opponent, the jailed mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu. But the looming thaw between the countries could be spoiled by Israel and Europe.
"A GOOD LEADER"
In the waning days of former US President Joseph Biden's term, the two countries were making efforts to normalize ties. Turkey voted to admit Finland and Sweden into NATO, and Biden approved the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to it.
But the relationship remained suspended. Erdogan had not forgotten that Biden had put off a phone call for months after the inauguration. Nor had he forgotten the recognition of the mass murder of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire as genocide. And besides, in four years, the Democrat had never received his Turkish counterpart in the White House.
Biden's team was initially focused on overthrowing Erdogan's government peacefully, supporting the opposition and expressing dissatisfaction with Turkey's behavior - whether in Syria, the Mediterranean or the conflict in Ukraine.
The Turks supplied UAVs and armored vehicles there, and at the same time managed to organize parallel exports to Russia, including dual-use goods, and the export of sanctioned Russian oil.
This is why the current contacts with the Americans are considered a breakthrough by the Turkish administration.
Even before Fidan's trip to the US, Erdogan had a very warm phone conversation with Trump, which his special envoy for Russia negotiations, Stephen Witkoff, called "wonderful" and transformative.
And Trump himself, at a reception in honor of the new US ambassador to Ankara, Tom Barrack, described Turkey as follows: “It’s a good country, and its leader is good.” These words are especially valuable for the Turkish leader in the days when almost half a million people who do not consider Erdogan “good” are gathering for a protest in the center of Istanbul.
Now, not only America, but even Europeans, who are fixated on “human rights,” are somehow very sluggishly reacting to the Turkish protests.
The only exception was the German Foreign Ministry, which hinted at the impossibility of Turkey's European integration with the "sitting" Imamoglu. But Minister Annalena Baerbock can be given a discount - the cabinet with her participation was disbanded literally the next day.
SANCTIONS ARE STILL IN EFFECT
The main topic of Fidan's visit, as well as Trump's call with Erdogan, was the restoration of relations and raising them to a new level. And the key issue, which serves to some extent as a test of the seriousness of intentions, is the program for the production and supply of F-35 fighters.
It was Trump who threw the country out of it during his last term. The pretext was Turkey's purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems, their incompatibility with NATO standards and the theoretical possibility of testing these systems against the F-35 on Turkish territory with the possibility of transferring this data to Moscow.
Towards the end of Trump's term, Erdogan traveled to Washington and seemed to have reached an agreement not to use the S-400, but the restrictions imposed under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) were never lifted.
Even before Fidan's departure, Erdogan discussed lifting sanctions on participation in the "F-35 program" in a telephone conversation with Trump. The Turkish president said: "In order to develop cooperation between the two countries in the defense industry, it is necessary to lift CAATSA sanctions, complete the F-16 procurement process and complete Turkey's re-participation in the F-35 program."
According to Fox News, Ankara is ready to make a concession on the S-400 — to dismantle and transport the system to a US military base. The decision has not yet been made, but the foreign ministers have already made it clear that the parties are aiming for progress in the negotiations.
According to a Turkish Foreign Ministry source cited by Daily Sabah, Fidan and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio "have clearly demonstrated their political will to remove obstacles to cooperation in the defense industry." The US and Turkey are already planning "technical talks" on the issue.
Turkey will only be satisfied with two options: either a full return to the F-35 fighter assembly program, or compensation: over $1 billion or the supply of less modern F-16 fighters.
If Trump and Erdogan reach an agreement on fifth-generation fighters, it would be a landmark event. But even without that, the two administrations are focused on strengthening their ties.
The rise of the anti-globalist agenda and Trump's personal sympathy for Erdogan create a favorable atmosphere for Turkey's rapprochement with the United States. By the way, Erdogan is one of the few leaders who has Trump's mobile phone number.
Ankara sets itself the goal of increasing trade turnover with America from the current $50 billion to $100 billion.
It is interesting that in this matter, connections with Russia and the implementation of new projects such as the construction of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant and the development of a gas hub will not become an obstacle.
If Trump is hinting at lifting sanctions on Russia, what incentive does he have to maintain sanctions against Turkey, imposed for trade and military-industrial cooperation with Moscow?
”SUPPORT FOR PEACE IN UKRAINE”
Beyond lifting sanctions, Trump and Erdogan must address many international issues that pose opportunities and risks to bilateral relations. Ukraine and the Middle East remain the focus.
The Hürriyet newspaper, citing diplomatic sources, reports that Fidan discussed efforts to end the war in Ukraine with Rubio. A TASS source reported that Fidan intended to raise the issue of Turkey's possible contribution to the Ukrainian settlement.
The word “contribution” sounds a bit ridiculous now – Erdogan would first like to deal with the protests in Istanbul and Ankara.
But, on the other hand, by keeping Ukraine in the focus of his attention, Erdogan is trying to create the impression that his power is inviolable. And at the same time, he is trying, as he always did, to earn domestic political points at the expense of foreign policy successes.
If the Biden administration has been putting spokes in his wheels and demanding more aid to Ukraine, then, as the State Department reports, Rubio “demands Turkish support for peace in Ukraine.” Against the backdrop of Trump’s peace talks, Erdogan should feel like a fish in water.
However, in a situation where Europe is showing growing interest in the contribution of NATO’s second army to the European security architecture and is pushing Turkey to send peacekeepers to Ukraine in exchange for ephemeral preferences, Ankara not only risks losing its status as a mediator, but also the trust of both Putin and Trump.
A CHANCE TO SOLVE THE "KURDISH QUESTION"
The common key topics in the Middle East are Syria and Palestine. There are no fewer pitfalls here. Turkey, as the closest ally of the new Turkish leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, is trying hard to get Washington to lift sanctions on Damascus.
Trump is in no hurry for now. In addition to the claims about the dominance of foreign fighters and cooperation with Hamas, there is another important nuance.
The new Syrian authorities have failed to ensure the security of ethnic and religious minorities (Christians, Druze and Alawites), for whom Trump’s closest friend, Israel, decided to stand up.
The second problematic point in Syria is the Kurds. Before his trip to Washington, Fidan said that a continued military presence in the Euphrates region is not a priority for Trump, since the positions of Iran and Russia have weakened, and the Bashar al-Assad regime is gone. “If America withdraws its troops, it will be cheaper for them,” says the Turkish minister, balancing on the edge of a threat.
Ankara is still hoping that Damascus will reach an agreement with the Kurds and integrate them into a single state, but the retention of US forces in the territories controlled by Kurdish formations still leaves a chance for the emergence of a “Syrian Kurdistan.”
On the issue of Kurdish separatism, which, by the way, is supported by Israel, Ankara and Washington have a chance to find a common language. In 2019, the Pentagon tactfully withdrew its troops from the zones of the Turkish military operation "Peace Spring" against the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), although Trump threatened to "destroy the Turkish economy."
RISK OF CLASH WITH ISRAEL
But with "Israeli expansionism" (Fidan's expression) everything is much more complicated. The Turkish minister recalled that "Israel has occupied southern Syria for almost 50 years" and under the pretext of protecting the Yazidis and Druze "is trying to expand the zone of occupation."
Türkiye is also unhappy that Israel recently abandoned the ceasefire in Gaza and launched a limited military operation.
Before Trump's inauguration, his aide made a significant contribution to achieving a ceasefire in Gaza, but now the US president is almost himself encouraging the Israeli offensive, striking the Houthis in Yemen and threatening war with Iran.
In the current situation, when Erdogan is in disarray at home, he is unlikely to do anything against Israel. However, in the long term, given that the Turkish army feels at home in Syria, and Syria has a direct border with Israel, there are risks of a head-on clash between Ankara and Tel Aviv. And they will certainly leave a heavy mark on the interaction between the United States and Turkey in all areas.
Erdogan is also very concerned about the influence of foreign lobbies on Trump. On March 24, the Turkish leader expressed hope for a “significant boost” despite “lobbyists seeking to poison cooperation between the two countries.”
Fidan had barely stepped off the plane when Greek lobbyists sent Trump a letter through the American Hellenic Institute (AHI) in which called on him to speak out “categorically against Turkey’s return to the F-35 program” and to maintain pressure on it to get rid of the S-400.
Unlike the Greeks, Israel is acting through the government. According to the newspaper Kathimerini, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu obtained assurances from Trump that deliveries of F-35s to Turkey were ruled out. After that, the Israelis calmed down, but with the intensification of contacts between the US and Turkey, they became tense again. And Netanyahu decided to remind about his request a second time, this time through Rubio.
THE ICE HAS BROKEN
If we sum up all the news from Washington, then perhaps the most important and indisputable achievement of Turkey in relations with the United States, the pinnacle of which was Fidan's visit, is that the United States, for the first time in decades, is not interfering in Erdogan's internal affairs and de facto has come out in his support in the confrontation with the opposition.
The ice has also been broken on the F-35 deal, with technical consultations underway. Fidan and Rubio discussed possible visits by their presidents. And, unlike in the Biden era, human rights concerns and cooperation with Russia should not be an obstacle.
Of course, Israel's position and actions could make adjustments: this factor greatly influences the Trump administration. Türkiye is interested in the conflict in Gaza coming to an end, but there is no progress here yet.
Success in the issue of a peaceful settlement in Ukraine depends more on Turkey itself. And if it is seriously determined to contribute to the Ukrainian settlement, then Erdogan should stay away from the provocative initiatives of French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and others like them.