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The Grand Turk

Knocking the Chair Out from Under Erdogan: Why the Kurds Signed an 'Eternal Peace' with Damascus

2025-03-12

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Leonid Tsukanov

[REGNUM] On March 10, the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Mazloum Abdi and the head of the transitional government of Syria Ahmed al-Sharaa, who a month ago considered each other rivals and potential adversaries, signed an agreement on the integration of the SDF into the institutions of the transitional government of Syria.

The tactical alliance, which came as a surprise even to a part of the Syrian elite, opened up great opportunities for a “new Syria.” However, it also complicated the already tense relations within yesterday’s “armed opposition.”

"FULL OF OPTIMISM"
The document, which the parties refer to as nothing less than a “historic agreement” (and which the Arab press has even managed to pretentiously dub “eternal peace”), sets out a course for establishing a ceasefire throughout the entire country.

The Syrian Kurds have been promised full respect for their constitutional rights and freedoms, including access for members of parliament from the autonomous region to the legislative process, something the SDF has long fought for.

In response, Kurdish leaders pledged to abandon armed confrontation with Damascus, integrating their units into the national army, and transferring oil and gas fields to the control of the new authorities.

The parties are full of optimism and believe that the signing of the agreement was a major step towards a political solution to the Syrian conflict and overcoming the civil strife inherited from the previous government.

At the same time, the project of a “Syrian Kurdistan” on the Iraqi model, which implies broad autonomy for Kurdish communities, is wisely not being put on the agenda yet – representatives of the SDF understand perfectly well that the new authorities are not ready for such broad gestures, and therefore are defending their rights gradually.

BIG BROTHERS
Shortly before the signing of the agreement between the SDF and the “new Damascus,” Abdi additionally “synchronized watches” with the commander of the US Central Command, Michael Kurilla, receiving his “go-ahead” to form an alliance.

The US, as a long-standing ally (and one of the key sponsors) of the SDF in Syria, has only benefited from this turn of events. Pentagon analysts reasonably assume that the rapprochement of the two major factions will force Turkey to abandon the military operation against Arab-Kurdish forces that it has been threatening for the past months.

Moreover, Ankara will not turn its weapons against its ally in the form of official Damascus, which will allow the Americans to reduce their direct presence on Syrian territory and shift responsibility for stability in the oil-producing regions to the al-Sharaa cabinet.

The Americans are also convinced that the Syrian Kurds have a unique opportunity to exit the conflict with Turkey by demonstrating that there is no threat to Ankara's security. And it must be used as soon as possible.

Moreover, after the “peace appeal” of Abdullah Ocalan, the leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and one of the ideological inspirers of modern Syrian Kurdistan, from a Turkish prison, the prospect of reconciliation between the two long-standing opponents became more real.

PKK supporters are gradually joining this trend, announcing the imminent holding of a general congress, at which the issue of the organization's self-dissolution and the end of armed struggle against Turkey and its allies will be raised.

And although the Kurdish leaders insist that they will make a decision on self-dissolution only on condition of Ocalan’s personal participation, the Syrian branch of the PKK preferred not to wait for the outcome and approached yesterday’s opponents on terms favorable to itself.

THE CIRCLE OF THE DISSATISFIED
The “eternal peace” between the Syrian Kurds and al-Sharaa’s cabinet undoubtedly strengthens the position of the new authorities and somewhat softens the claims of ethno-religious minorities, emphasizing the ability to seek compromises in difficult conditions. And here, al-Sharaa and his supporters are the clear winners of the situation, for whom this is the first major diplomatic victory within the country.

However, even in this interpretation, the new tactical alliance has its critics.

As expected, the pro-Turkish groups that see Abdi's fighters as future enemies were the ones most outraged by Damascus's decision to get closer to the SDF. In particular, the lack of a clause in the agreement on disarming the Kurdish militias caused a storm of criticism.

The commanders of the pro-Turkish groups do not hide the fact that such “frivolity” could “cost dearly” al-Sharaa and the Kurds will sooner or later have to be expelled from strategically important areas by force of arms

Pro-Turkish militants also fear that the "Kurdish sword" will be turned against them by Damascus - as part of a purge of those who disagree with the policies of the new authorities. And a precedent for this has already been partially created.

Al-Sharaa is trying with all its might to shift responsibility for the pogroms in the coastal regions of Syria to “gray” groups (including, for example, the “Al-Sultan Murad Division,” whose commanders are trying to challenge and sabotage any decisions of the Syrian cabinet), as well as to involve SDF commanders in the “search and detention of those responsible” for the massacre in Tartus and Latakia.

It is possible that at some point the command staff of the Division will also be among those guilty.

As for the Kurds themselves, it seems they have not yet fully decided on their position regarding the agreement with the new authorities in Damascus.

The enthusiastic assessments of the Kurdish elites that have filled the airwaves drown out the fears of ordinary residents, but do not dispel them completely. The latter are convinced that the promises made by the Syrian authorities are too shaky and no one guarantees that the next punitive action of the al-Sharaa cabinet will not be directed against Kurdish communities.

But Abdi’s entourage reacts to such pessimistic assessments briefly and extremely transparently: only time will tell how strong the “eternal peace” is.

Posted by:badanov

#1 Any bets on how long it'll last?

Posted by: Grom the Affective 2025-03-12 03:39

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