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-Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
Asteroid YR4's Moon Encounter Dangerous for Earth Due to Possible 8-Mt Explosion
2025-03-02
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Regnum] The collision of asteroid 2024 YR4 with the Moon could be dangerous for the Earth, since the collision of the cosmic body with the surface of the satellite will result in an explosion with an energy release of about 8 megatons. This was reported to TASS by astronomer, research fellow at the M.V. Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Leonid Elenin.

"A collision [of an asteroid] with the Moon could be dangerous for the Earth, because there would be a powerful explosion, an energy release of approximately 8 megatons. The Moon has no atmosphere, low gravity, so all the ejected debris could eventually fall on our planet," Elenin said.
Ok. What’s the probability?
According to him, the probability of an asteroid colliding with the Moon is currently about 1%.
Only 1%? I can sleep peacefully at night with that likelihood.
At the same time, the value of the predicted risk of its collision with the Earth is being adjusted in accordance with new data.

According to astronomers' calculations, asteroid 2024 YR4 may approach Earth in a little less than eight years - on December 22, 2032. In early February, NASA estimated the risks of this collision at 2.2%, later this figure rose to 3.1%. However, the service then again adjusted the figure to 0.28%.
Definitely sleep peacefully.
As reported by the Regnum news agency, asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered in December 2024 by astronomers at the ATLAS observatory in Chile. Initially, NASA estimated the probability of Earth colliding with this cosmic body at 1%, but on February 7, 2025, it reported that the figure had risen to 2.3%.

A team of observers from the University of Arizona and NASA, created to identify potentially dangerous space bodies, admitted that 2024 YR4 could crash into the Moon. Experts noted that in this case, some debris could fall to Earth, but it would not pose a serious threat.
Related:
YR4 02/25/2025 Asteroid 2024-YR4: odds of hit down to 1 in 26,000
YR4 02/19/2025 Odds of the ''city-killing'' YR4 asteroid hitting Earth are up
YR4 02/16/2025 Astronomer reveals when data on the orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4 will be available

Posted by:badanov

#4  Most of the debris from a collision would fall back on the moon. Almost none of the debris would get into the Earth's gravity field. Almost all the debris that got into the Earth's gravity field would burn in the Earth's atmosphere.
Posted by: Lord Garth   2025-03-02 11:56  

#3  So if it passes close to the moon this year, will the moon's gravity affect its orbit? And probabilities?
Posted by: Bobby   2025-03-02 10:22  

#2  
Any bets?
Several Hollywood Mega Disaster flix's will be made and released in the next 2-3 years.

Just as the Elite seeking to address their camera deficit disorder, start pimping a solution for $$$$$$.

Example: Purchase a $25 lottery ticket for a 2-person cabin and all needed supplies, on the future US Space Colony platform called Orphans of the Sky. (☺ some of you will get it.☺)
Posted by: NN2N1   2025-03-02 04:35  

#1  Bring it!
Posted by: Skidmark   2025-03-02 02:49  

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