In the end, I think the total casualties for both sides will wind up being about a tenth of what has been officially -- and loudly reported -- by both sides.
| Only a tenth? Thank goodness — I was mourning the imminent disappearance of both nations. |
[LB] On the 1,100th day of the great war, the Russians lost, according to some estimates, 471,367 killed, missing, prisoners and deserters, and another 1,042,398 wounded and sick.
The number of appeals from Russia to the Ukrainian project "I Want to Find" has increased, which helps search for missing Russians. Since the beginning of the year, there have been 8,548 of them, and since the beginning of the Great War, about 60,000. On the Ukrainian side, the number of missing people has also increased, which has a logical explanation: we retreated, leaving the bodies of our fallen comrades in the territory occupied by the enemy, and it is useless to demand that savages adhere to the norms of international humanitarian law, so this will continue until identification.
A total of 692,000 Russians met the year 2024 on Ukrainian soil, but only 540,000 spent it. The Defense Forces of Ukraine spent all the rest in hell. But the best ballet in the world cannot perform with a reduced troupe.
The General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces reported that 370,000 “volunteers” were called up for the year. We saw them, now many are lying in the fields, landings, and ruins on the front line. Then, to the 370,000, 53,100 amnestied convicts and 3,900 mercenaries were added (such an amazing category is graduates of the “special purpose university in Gudermes, Chechnya”). It turned out 427,000.
Smart people have discovered discrepancies in the Russian budget between the allocated funding and the number of contract workers who should have received it. Interesting facts : convicts who signed contracts do not receive payments from the Ministry of Defense for this, although they are promised money.
The “volunteers” of the BARS units are bypassing payments, because as of 2022 they did not have contracts, but employment contracts with the Ministry of Defense, so they are not entitled to any funeral, signature, or injury payments. Why break a good tradition and start paying something?! They did not live well, so there is nothing to start.
The question remains, "how, having received 427,000 reinforcements, did the Russian group decrease by 152,000 in a year?" Since June, the enemy's losses have exceeded the number of reinforcements. At the beginning of autumn, the balance leveled off a bit, but subsided in December.
In January 2025, 16,000 autumn conscripts were transferred to contracts and Putin was shown beautiful New Year's statistics. But we are observing assault groups, if not on crutches, then heavily bandaged. The Russians have already developed a new term for regiments staffed with unfit personnel, who are being driven from hospitals to the front line - a cripple regiment. Symptomatic, you must agree.
Let's summarize: as of 01.01.2024, 692,000 fought against Ukraine on its territory and nearby. During the year, another 427,000 arrived, that is, it became 1,119,000. At the end of the year, 540,000 remained. The difference is the losses of all categories, including prisoners (there are not many of them, much less than the wounded, sick, missing, deserters). That is, we see that the enemy lost most of its group in 2024.
How did all this affect the front line? We see on Deep State maps that the "strategic offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations" has turned into several operations being carried out simultaneously in separate directions according to a single idea and plan.
Advancing from Avdeevka to Pokrovsk, for example, the enemy lost 35,000 soldiers along the way, the "Center" group of troops decreased from 110,000 to 75,000. Today, the enemy command is deciding whether to continue near Pokrovsk or open a new, Konstantinovka direction. The regrouping of the 8th Army, which was transferred from near Kurakhovo to the Torets direction, speaks in favor of the second decision.
LOSSES OF THE OCCUPYING ARMY IN THE KHARKIV DIRECTION
It is also clear that the enemy has squandered strategic reserves — if not all, then most of them — and will not be able to conduct two offensive operations at the level of an army or several armies at the same time (near Pokrovskoye — the 41st and 2nd armies, near Toretskoye — the 51st and 8th). To this should be added the intention to seize as much Ukrainian land as possible BEFORE hypothetical negotiations, which encourages the enemy to attack even where there is neither opportunity nor sense.
THE SITUATION AT THE FRONT. A GLIMMER OF HOPE
And here lies our chance: a sudden powerful strike on a place where the enemy is exhausted (you can attack all the time, but without reserves you cannot compensate for the results of the attacks, such areas will be weakened) can destroy the front.
The only condition is that we must have reserves for this.